Electionate
Romney's Florida Lead Hinges On Hispanics
Romney made larger gains in Florida after the first presidential debate than most other battlegrounds, leaving him about 1 or 2 points ahead in the Sunshine State. But the polls suggest that one reason for Romney’s strength might be a surprising group: Florida’s Latino population. In 2008, Obama won Florida’s Latinos by 15 points with a relatively strong showing among Miami’s traditionally Republican Cuban population and the exploding and heavily-Democratic non-Cuban Hispanic population, especially the Puerto Ricans of the Orlando-Kissimmee metropolitan area. READ MORE >>
2004 And The Possibility Of A Shift In Ohio
With just ten days to go, it’s an open question whether Mitt Romney can make a comeback in Ohio. READ MORE >>
With the debates fading in the rear view mirror and Election Day approaching quickly, the polls still show Obama ahead by a modest but meaningful and consistent margin in the Buckeye State. READ MORE >>
Daily Breakdown: Polls Show A Tight Race In Virginia and Colorado
Virginia and Colorado have faded in importance as Ohio has reascended to its decisive role in teh Electoral College. But the two "new coalition" states of '08 remain competitive and yesterday's polls showed a tight race. READ MORE >>
Why Romney Is Buying Ads in Minnesota
The Associated Press reports that the Romney campaign is buying television advertisements in Minnesota, a state where neither presidential campaign has purchased TV ads before. So what’s Romney’s move? Is it a bluff? A genuine late play at a state that hasn’t voted for a Republican since 1972? Here are three possible explanations: 1) Wisconsin. READ MORE >>
The Road To Victory In Ohio
With just 12 days to go, every day without signs of Romney making gains in Ohio, Wisconsin, or Nevada counts as a win for the president. Obama has held a persistent lead in all three states and could combine to provide the president with 271 electoral votes, enough to win reelection. READ MORE >>
Could The Electorate Be More Diverse Than 2008?
The Obama campaign is feeling confident so they decided to give the details to Mark Halperin, steward of the conventional wisdom. Most of the Obama campaign's causes for confidence were relatively unobjectionable, but Obama campaign officials said they expect the non-white share of the electorate to increase by 2 percentage points to 28 percent of the electorate. Many Republicans are skeptical that the electorate will be as diverse as it was four years ago, let alone more so. READ MORE >>
With the exception of 1PM chaos as polling addicts went into Gallup withdrawal, yesterday was an uneventful day heading into the final two weeks of the campaign. READ MORE >>
