Will Increased Capital Requirements Kill a Recovery? Morgan Stanley Wants You to Think So.
November 25, 2009
Just when momentum was starting to build for increased capital requirements as the core element of an approach that will reign in reckless risk-taking, Morgan Stanley effectively demolishes the idea. In “Banking – Large & Midcap Banks: Bid for Growth Caps Capital Ask,” (no public link available) Betsy Graseck, Ken Zorbo, Justin Kwon, and John Dunn of Morgan Stanley Research North America dissect the coming demands for more bank capital. “In short, we think the demand for growth and access to credit will trump desire for unprofitable capital levels… For the large cap and midcap banks, we
Why Banks Shouldn't Control Clearinghouses
November 25, 2009
In my post yesterday about derivatives, I mentioned the importance of "clearing," which would help sever the interconnections between firms on either side of a derivatives trade. (The interconnections are what can put the whole financial system at risk when one firm, like Lehman, runs into trouble.) But one of the problems with clearing is that it requires clearinghouses, which are privately-owned entities that end up with a lot of power to influence the way derivatives get regulated.
America's Economic "Doom Loop"
November 17, 2009
“Banking on the State” by Andrew Haldane and Piergiorgio Alessandri is making waves in official circles. Haldane, Executive Director for Financial Stability at the Bank of England, is widely regarded as both a technical expert and as someone who can communicate his points effectively to policymakers. He is obviously closely in line--although not in complete agreement--with the thinking of Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England. Haldane and Alessandri offer a tough, perhaps bleak assessment.
Gordon Brown's Financial Shock and Awe
November 10, 2009
There are two broad views on our newly resurgent global bubbles--the increase in asset prices in emerging markets, fuelled by capital inflows, with all the associated bells and whistles (including dollar depreciation). These run-ups in stock market values and real estate prices are either benign or the beginnings of a major new malignancy. The benign view, implicit in Secretary Geithner’s position at the G20 meeting last weekend, is most clearly articulated by Frederic (Ric) Mishkin, former member of the Fed’s Board of Governors and author of "The Next Great Globalization: How Disadvantaged N
Is Cost Control a Joke?
November 06, 2009
For all of the crazy arguments against health care reform, a few of them are entirely sensible--and worth taking seriously. As I write in my latest Kaiser Health News column, which appeared on TNR’s home page yesterday, one of those is the worry that Congress won’t follow through with promises to raise the revenue--or find the savings--necessary to finance expansions of health insurance. In other words, Congress may pass a law calling for reductions in Medicare expenditures or raising an assortment of new taxes.
Another Step Closer to Breaking Up the Banks?
November 05, 2009
A banking industry lobbyist I spoke with this evening alerts me to a fascinating development in the House Financial Services Committee: Pennsylvania Rep. Paul Kanjorski is about to introduce an amendment to the systemic risk bill moving through the committee (see my discussion here and here) that would give regulators the power to break up too-big-to-fail firms. The details are a little unclear--as it stands, the current bill would give the Fed some vague powers in this vein. But the soon-to-be Kanjorski amendment appears to go much further, and the banks are freaking out about it.
Could the Economy Survive With Just Medium-Sized Banks?
November 03, 2009
Josef Ackermann, chief executive of Deutsche Bank and chairman of the Institute of International Finance (an influential group, reflecting the interests of global finance in Washington) is opposed to breaking up big banks. According to the FT, he said, “The idea that we could run modern, sophisticated, prosperous economies with a population of mid-sized savings banks is totally misguided.” This is clever rhetoric--aiming to portray proponents of reform as populists with no notion of how a modern economy operates. But the problem is that some leading voices for breaking up banks come from peop
Britain To Break Up Biggest Banks
November 02, 2009
The WSJ reports (online): “The U.K.’s top treasury official Sunday said the government is starting a process to rebuild the country’s banking system, likely pressing major divestments from institutions and trying to attract new retail banks to the market.” The British style is typically understated and policymakers always like to play down radical departures, but this is huge news. Pressure from the EU has apparently had major impact--worries about unfair competition through subsidizing “too big to fail” banks are very real within the European market place. Also, strong voices from within the
'Too Big' Banks Won't Disappear On Their Own
October 29, 2009
That's the conclusion of a new St. Louis Fed study by David Wheelock and Paul Wilson. In the two decades between the mid-80's and 00's, the number of commercial banks fell by 50% while the average size per institution surged by an inflation-adjusted 500%.
October 29, 2009
The Fed's not about to take away the punch bowl. Correlation of the day: A Phillies World Series win could be bad sign for the economy. Justin Fox: Are finance professors to blame for crisis? Before Freakonomics, there was Steve Landsburg, who is now blogging. Has Obama soothed our animal spirits? Somebody's still creating CDOs.