Moderate Republicanism is not intellectually dead. So where is it?
Three NYT/CBS/Quinnipiac polls grabbed the headlines by showing Obama with double-digit leads in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Importantly, Obama hit 53 percent in all three states, giving him more than enough of the vote to withstand substantial losses among undecided voters. Obama’s lead in the battleground states is getting large enough that the margin might not accurately represent his advantage. The remaining undecided voters are probably latent Romney supporters—voters who tend to vote for Republican candidates, disapprove of the president’s performance, but dislike Romney.
Over the last two months, there has been a clear gap between live interview and automated (IVR) pollsters: Obama seems to have a big lead in live polling, but the robots find a closer race. A majority of surveys in key battleground states have been conducted by automated polling firms. While live interviews dominate national polling (every major media poll is conducted with live interviews), only a few live interview firms conduct polls in the battleground states, since they're expensive.
The big picture: Obama continues to hold a modest but clear lead nationally and in critical battleground states like Ohio, Virginia, and Florida. This is alot, so let’s digest it in segments. Good News For Obama Nearly every poll was consistent with a modest Obama lead nationally of about 4 points and a meaningful edge in the electoral college. Obama hit fifty percent in three national polls and led by four or more in four of the five national surveys.