To See Whether Romney's Bounce Counts, Follow Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada
October 08, 2012
Romney's four point bounce won't give him the lead without outsized gains in key swing states.
How the GOP Destroyed its Moderates
October 05, 2012
Moderate Republicanism is not intellectually dead. So where is it?
Thank You, Daily Caller, for Your Dud of a Story
October 03, 2012
The Daily Caller Obama bombshell is a big fat nothingburger. But it does raise an important point about the government's Katrina response.
“47%” Was Bad for Romney; Ryan Has Been Deadly
September 27, 2012
The conventional wisdom on Obama's recent surge overlooks an obvious dynamic: The escalating disaster that is Paul Ryan.
Daily Breakdown: Obama Near His Ceiling?
September 27, 2012
Three NYT/CBS/Quinnipiac polls grabbed the headlines by showing Obama with double-digit leads in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Importantly, Obama hit 53 percent in all three states, giving him more than enough of the vote to withstand substantial losses among undecided voters. Obama’s lead in the battleground states is getting large enough that the margin might not accurately represent his advantage. The remaining undecided voters are probably latent Romney supporters—voters who tend to vote for Republican candidates, disapprove of the president’s performance, but dislike Romney.
Daily Breakdown: Obama's Bounce Cascades Across Battleground States
September 26, 2012
Obama's national advantage is buttressed by a lead in states worth 348 electoral votes.
Colorado Emerging As A Possible Bright Spot for Romney
September 19, 2012
How Colorado Went From Democratic Savior to Toss-up
Obama Further Ahead In Live Interview Polls; Robots Favor Romney
September 18, 2012
Over the last two months, there has been a clear gap between live interview and automated (IVR) pollsters: Obama seems to have a big lead in live polling, but the robots find a closer race. A majority of surveys in key battleground states have been conducted by automated polling firms. While live interviews dominate national polling (every major media poll is conducted with live interviews), only a few live interview firms conduct polls in the battleground states, since they're expensive.
Daily Breakdown: Romney Trails In Must-Win Battlegrounds
September 14, 2012
The big picture: Obama continues to hold a modest but clear lead nationally and in critical battleground states like Ohio, Virginia, and Florida. This is alot, so let’s digest it in segments. Good News For Obama Nearly every poll was consistent with a modest Obama lead nationally of about 4 points and a meaningful edge in the electoral college. Obama hit fifty percent in three national polls and led by four or more in four of the five national surveys.