Daily Breakdown: Obama Near His Ceiling?
September 27, 2012
Three NYT/CBS/Quinnipiac polls grabbed the headlines by showing Obama with double-digit leads in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Importantly, Obama hit 53 percent in all three states, giving him more than enough of the vote to withstand substantial losses among undecided voters. Obama’s lead in the battleground states is getting large enough that the margin might not accurately represent his advantage. The remaining undecided voters are probably latent Romney supporters—voters who tend to vote for Republican candidates, disapprove of the president’s performance, but dislike Romney.
Daily Breakdown: Obama's Bounce Cascades Across Battleground States
September 26, 2012
Obama's national advantage is buttressed by a lead in states worth 348 electoral votes.
Colorado Emerging As A Possible Bright Spot for Romney
September 19, 2012
How Colorado Went From Democratic Savior to Toss-up
Obama Further Ahead In Live Interview Polls; Robots Favor Romney
September 18, 2012
Over the last two months, there has been a clear gap between live interview and automated (IVR) pollsters: Obama seems to have a big lead in live polling, but the robots find a closer race. A majority of surveys in key battleground states have been conducted by automated polling firms. While live interviews dominate national polling (every major media poll is conducted with live interviews), only a few live interview firms conduct polls in the battleground states, since they're expensive.
Daily Breakdown: Romney Trails In Must-Win Battlegrounds
September 14, 2012
The big picture: Obama continues to hold a modest but clear lead nationally and in critical battleground states like Ohio, Virginia, and Florida. This is alot, so let’s digest it in segments. Good News For Obama Nearly every poll was consistent with a modest Obama lead nationally of about 4 points and a meaningful edge in the electoral college. Obama hit fifty percent in three national polls and led by four or more in four of the five national surveys.
Daily Breakdown: Fox News Poll Undermines Romney's Theory Of The Race
September 13, 2012
How do voters grade Obama's performance on the economy? Depends on what you think a "C" means.
Look Who’s Raiding Medicare Now
September 08, 2012
Romney-Ryan say their Medicare plan would affect current seniors. They're wrong and a new report suggets why.
Will the Conventions Move Florida or North Carolina?
September 07, 2012
While Obama and McCain got a host-state bounce in 2008, Obama and Romney might not get one in 2012.
The thousands of reporters who departed the nation’s capital to cover the Republican National Convention in Florida have done an admirable job covering an important political event. But a big story taking place in the national media’s own backyard, one arguably even more important than the convention, slipped by almost entirely unnoticed: the federal court case pitting South Carolina against the Department of Justice over the state’s controversial Voter ID law.