2012 is shaping up as an election in which the winner may earn victory not by virtue of winning the most votes, but on account of the Electoral College. If one candidate enjoys a popular vote edge of 2 percentage points or more, there’s virtually no chance that the other candidate will achieve a majority of the electoral votes.
DES MOINES—“It's a historic day,” Rep. Steve King of Iowa announced yesterday from the podium of the FAMiLY Leadership Summit 2012, a major gathering of social conservatives in a suburban Des Moines megachurch that drew a host of national political celebrities. King wasn’t talking about the event, or even the prospect of ejecting Barack Obama from the White House, but of the choice of his friend and colleague Paul Ryan to become Mitt Romney’s running-mate.
Good round of polls for Romney today, although there weren’t many and they were from firms that have tended to offer decent results for Romney so far this cycle. Iowa seems destined to be among the closest states in 2012. It leaned slightly to the left in 2004 and 2008, but it has a large white working class population which would tend to suggest that Obama should expect larger losses in Iowa than elsewhere.