Defending Obama on Taxes
December 07, 2010
Why is Obama giving Republicans an extension of upper income tax cuts when polls show Americans overwhelmingly oppose them? Maybe because those polls don't translate into leverage on Capitol Hill. Political scientist and blogger Brendan Nyhan makes the case: First, public opinion in more conservative states is likely to be less favorable to Obama's original position than national polls.
Fox and Hounds
November 02, 2010
CNN has holograms and touch screens and teleporters and tachyon impulse starships, so why the hell was Chris Wallace scrawling crap on a $10 white board on Fox News a few minutes ago? His handwriting sucks. Also, he said that he's really worried that folks are going to undersell the historical significance of Republican gains should they be major. Me too, Chris.
Dem Victories in OH, VT, WV?
November 02, 2010
CNN has released the head-to-head exit polls for selected statewide races where polls were closed, and though caution should be used in accepting this data (remember 2004?), it looks like Ted Strickland may be winning the Ohio governor's race, and that Peter Shumlin may be winning the Vermont governor's race. And hold onto your hats: The data also suggests Joe Manchin is winning the Senate race in West By God Virginia, which means you can forget about any Republican Senate.
A Comprehensive 2010 Election Guide
November 01, 2010
This is your comprehensive hour-by-hour guide to Election Night 2010. It will help you follow all of the bellwether indicators throughout the day and interpret the returns. So what are you waiting for? Print it out and keep it close during every minute of the agonizing countdown. What to Look for Early on Election Day: There will be lots of anecdotal reports during the early hours of voting about turnout and the expectations* of both parties and many candidates. It’s colorful, but don’t believe any of it.
Is Joe Manchin As Conservative As He Seems?
October 15, 2010
While it's still too early to pick the most surreal ad of the political cycle, the one where West Virginia Governor Joe Manchin grabs a rifle and starts shooting a cap-and-trade bill must rank pretty high. But hey, maybe this little authenticity twofer worked! Previous polls, after all, showed Manchin losing the WV Senate race to GOP businessman John Raese. Whereas today, a new Marshall University survey gives Manchin a ten-point lead. Maybe more struggling candidates should try blasting away at thick reams of legislative text. But that brings up another question.
John Raese, Joe Manchin, And The Costs And Benefits Of Disunity
October 13, 2010
The West Virginia Senate race is a perfect example of the two parties' diametrical approach to nominating candidates. It's a poor, socially conservative, and increasingly Republican state. The Democrats have nominated Joe Manchin, the popular governor who is running an ad featuring him shooting the cap and trade bill with a rifle, a hilariously over-the-top authenticity two-fer. The Republican nominee is John Raese. A very conservative Republican could win in West Virginia this year, if he were a populist extreme social conservative. That's not John Raese.
Why I Love the Senate: West Virginia Edition
October 11, 2010
Via The Hill, I see that West Virginia Governor Joe Manchin has altered his rhetoric on health care reform, yet again. Originally he said he supported the Affordable Care Act, while allowing that it had some flaws in need of fixing. Then he announced he favored repeal, but clarified that he meant only repeal of some relatively modest portions.
Is Joe Manchin Too Young?
July 21, 2010
Politico has a headline, "Manchin Gets Veteran Dem Challenger." "Veteran" turns out to be something of an understatement here: Former West Virginia Secretary of State Ken Hechler, a nonagenarian Democrat who has held office in the state on and off since 1958, has filed to run in his party’s Senate primary against Gov. Joe Manchin. The West Virginia secretary of state’s office confirmed that Hechler filed the appropriate paperwork by fax and paid the $1,740 fee to enter the special election race for the late Sen.
West Virginia Governor Joe Manchin, a Democrat, confirmed today that he will run for Robert Byrd’s Senate seat this fall. Chances are he’ll be running against Republican Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito, although she hasn’t formally announced her candidacy yet. So who exactly is Joe Manchin? Here are some quick, essential facts: —Before becoming governor in 2005, Manchin served in the West Virginia state legislature and senate. He was also secretary of state from 2001-2005.
And Now the Real Work Begins (Cont'd)
March 25, 2010
President Obama and his Democratic allies should enjoy the moment. This was a hard-fought victory, one not years but decades in the making. Still, there is work to be done. And some of it must begin soon. In the new issue of Time, Karen Tumulty and Kate Pickert with Alice Park sketch out the major challenges ahead.