Mark Blumenthal
The Politics of Gun Control Have Changed, But Will Democrats Notice?
Over the last four presidential elections, gun control has been as settled as any political question, with Democrats all but conceding the issue to Republicans in national elections. A spate of mass shootings during the first four years of the Obama presidency didn't change this, but there is some reason to think that the terrible elementary school shooting in Newtown, Connecticut could be different. READ MORE >>
Gallup’s New Polling Method Helps Obama—But It’s Also More Accurate
Just one month before the presidential election, Gallup announced it was changing its polling method. The changes were good ones; they included an increase in the number of interviews conducted by cell phones, a reduction in the length of the questionnaire for political questions, adjustments to ensure its sample matches U.S. census targets for the adult population, and modifications to the likely voter screen to account for early voting. READ MORE >>
What's the Matter With Gallup?
Daily Breakdown: Gallup and Rasmussen v. World
The polls are a bit of a mess right now, but the sources of disagreement seem a little clearer today. A big polling duel might be shaping up for November: Gallup and Rasmussen v. World. READ MORE >>
The tracking polls showed Obama remaining at elevated levels, but the Washington Post threw a wrench into a clear assessment of the race: READ MORE >>
Romney Doesn't Lead Among Likely Voters—At Least For Now
With Obama holding a narrow but consistent lead in polls of registered voters, some have begun to speculate about whether Romney would seize the advantage once polls begin to apply likely voter models. While it's possible, recent polls suggest that Obama would maintain a slight advantage. READ MORE >>
How Should We Read Gallup Polls?
Can Democrats Retake The House?
Mark Blumenthal moderates a debate over the GOP's prospects for retaining control of the House. Basically, the historical evidence shows that it would be hard. Wave elections happen infrequently, and they're often a rejection a the incumbent party. It seems especially true in the last few decades that voters are motivated by revulsion against, rather than enthusiasm for, the incumbent party. All of that suggests Democrats won't have a big wave until Republicans hold the White House. READ MORE >>
Health Care Reform Is Getting More Popular
Mark Blumenthal sums up the data: Any way you slice it, there does appear to be a real tightening of opinion on health reform although as always, these results are snapshots and subject to change. READ MORE >>
