Bachmann's Health Care Whopper
June 14, 2011
One pseudo-fact from last night that's worth pointing out, as it's sure to recur many times, is Michelle Bachmann's claim that the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the Affordable Care Act would destroy 800,000 jobs. I wrote about this in February. The short answer is that CBO found nothing of the sort. CBO estimated that 800,000 people would leave the workforce because they no longer would need to work in order to get health insurance. Under the status quo, it's very hard for people who aren't elderly or poor enough to qualify for Medicaid to obtain health insurance.
A Few Notes On The GOP Debate
June 13, 2011
A recurrent Chait blog theme that looked good tonight: Pay attention to Michelle Bachmann. I was not surprised by her performance, but everybody else was. A recurrent Chait blog theme that looked bad tonight: Tim Pawlenty as front-runner. Boy, did he look weak, especially when he refused to defend his "Obamneycare" line. There's going to be a wimp narrative, and Republicans like their men manly. A few thoughts on substance -- Pawlenty defended his promise of 5% annual growth by saying China did it, therefore we can too. That's ridiculous.
Heading into the second GOP presidential debate tonight in New Hampshire (and the first to actually feature a first tier roster), there’s a lot of speculation as to how each candidate will fare. How will Romney handle the inevitable attacks? Can Newt miraculously revive his campaign? And who among Michele Bachmann, Ron Paul, and Herman Cain will draw the accolades of the Tea Party faithful?
Taking Michelle Bachmann Seriously
June 11, 2011
If you want to know why I take Michelle Bachmann seriously as a dark horse candidate, check out her lengthy interview with Stephen Moore of the Wall Street Journal editorial page. Bachmann may be a paranoid loony, but she does seem possessed of a level of political savvy that allows her to understand what challenges she faces and what steps she needs to take to address them. For instance, she understands that she needs to distinguish her image from that of Sarah Palin, which means establishing her intellectual bona fides.
June 07, 2011
-- Roger Lowenstein looks back at the infamous Smoot-Hawley tariff. -- I keep telling people to take Michelle Bachmann seriously, and Suzy Khimm helps explain why. -- Who is the GOP's most electable candidate?
June 01, 2011
A striking thing about the press coverage of the Republican presidential nomination contest is that it assumes a field that sits far to the left of the Republican electorate. Conventional wisdom-meister Mark Halperin tabs Mitt Romney, who is both ideologically and religiously unacceptable to large segments of the party base, as the runaway front-runner.
The Rise Of Debt Ceiling Denial
May 18, 2011
Carrie Bordoff Brown has a good story about the increasingly widespread belief among conservatives that failing to lift the debt ceiling would have no important economic consequences: They are the newest breed of government skeptics, the swelling ranks of Republicans who don’t believe the Obama administration when it says a failure to raise the debt limit will prove catastrophic. And they stand ready to make negotiations over raising the cap on debt as grueling as possible, making Treasury officials and Wall Street more nervous than ever that the country could suffer an unprecedented default
The Bachmann Opportunity
May 16, 2011
Like Ed Kilgore and Nate Silver, I think Mike Huckabee's decision not to run for president increases the chances that Michelle Bachmann could win the nomination. In my view, the three main contenders for the nomination are, in order, 1) Tim Pawlenty, 2) A party establishment-friendly Republican not currently running, such as Mitch Daniels or Paul Ryan, and 3) Bachmann. Everybody else, including Sick Man Of The GOP Field Mitt Romney, falls into the longshot bin. Of the establishment-friendly potential candidates, the one most likely to pull the trigger at the moment seems to be Daniels.
The Winner Of The Trump Meltdown
May 11, 2011
I should preface this item by noting that all my writing about pure horse race politics, and presidential primary politics especially, is highly speculative. Public policy is something that can be analyzed with some precision. Elections are highly unpredictable. It can be (hopefully) interesting and fun to speculate, but the speculation should be taken with a grain of salt.
Michelle Bachmann thinks the national debt is like the Holocaust: Rep.