Daily Breakdown: National Polls Show A Tight Race; Isaac Update
August 27, 2012

Isaac threatens the rest of the RNC with a landfall near New Orleans.

Daily Breakdown: Wisconsin Is A Toss-Up
August 16, 2012

The biggest news is in Wisconsin, where the first post-Ryan polls show a closer race in the Badger State. While Obama’s 4-point edge in the CNN poll might look comfortable, notice that it’s a poll of registered voters, so it’s probably slightly closer. Given that Obama has a 3-point lead nationally, Wisconsin appears to have moved right into alignment with the nation as a whole. That’s hardly surprising given the expected bounce for a VP pic and it moves the state into the toss-up column.

The Campaigns Should Keep Spending in North Carolina
August 09, 2012

The campaigns are pouring millions of dollars into North Carolina and the polls show a tight race, but Nate Silver doesn’t think that the state is worth the investment. While he is certainly right that North Carolina is unlikely to prove decisive, it’s easy to envision how the Tar Heel state could play a pivotal role in 2012.

Don’t Live in the Past! How 2012’s Electoral Map Could Differ From 2008
August 02, 2012

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Why Would a Church Youth Group Pretend to Kidnap Teens?
July 31, 2012

A Pennsylvania church and its youth pastor were charged last week with false imprisonment and assault for pretending to kidnap youth group members in order to teach them about religious persecution. You know you’re an evangelical when your first reaction to that news isn’t shock but, “Man, I can’t believe fools are still doing that.” Let me explain. When I was growing up in southeastern Michigan, I was an enthusiastic Jesus nerd, attending all manner of Baptist youth fellowship conferences, winter retreats, summer church camps, and a year-long leadership program for young Baptists.

So Goes Poland, So Goes America
July 30, 2012

After months defending traditionally red states like North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, and Ohio, Romney has finally decided to launch an offensive. Where? Poland: The predictably undefended flank of Obama’s route to 270 electoral votes. Poland is the ancestral homeland of about 3 percent of the American population, but a higher share of a few traditionally Democratic but potentially competitive states, like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, where Polish-Americans constitute between 7 and 10 percent of the population.

The Case of Pennsylvania's Missing Ads
July 26, 2012

One of the early peculiarities of the advertising campaign is the half-hearted effort in Pennsylvania—a state which figured prominently in the electoral calculus of the last three presidential elections. Despite that place in recent electoral history, Romney hasn’t aired any ads in Pennsylvania since the general election began.

Is Minnesota the Newest Swing State?
July 23, 2012

Why isn’t Minnesota a swing state?

The Key to a Romney Win in Pennsylvania: Mondale Democrats
July 18, 2012

Every four years, political reporters flood western Pennsylvania searching for the latest clue to decipher the shifting allegiances of coveted “Reagan Democrats,” the socially conservative voters who abandoned the New Deal coalition over cultural issues in the '70's and '80's. When a candidate visits Pennsylvania, the accompanying news reports remind us that “Reagan Democrats” are the consummate swing voters who maintain a stranglehold over the outcome of critical races in large industrial Midwestern states like Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

Confessions of an Ex-Mormon
July 13, 2012

A personal history of America’s most misunderstood religion