Midterm Elections

End of the Pelosi House
November 02, 2010

MSNBC is now projecting that Republicans will take the House. This is not at all surprising. Polls have predicted this outcome for a while. It means John Boehner will become speaker, that Darrell Issa will be firing off the subpoenas, and that the Tea Party crowd suddenly has an institutional base for power. It also means that Nancy Pelosi's tenure as speaker is over. I expect to read and hear a lot of people declaring that tonight's results show that she has failed. Do not be fooled. Not only was she the first woman to become speaker.

Less Good News for Democrats in the House
November 02, 2010

Early indications that Democrats seem to be holding their own in a lot of close races should not be misunderstood as in indication that the Donkey Party is having a good night; far from it. It just doesn't look like the vast tsunami a lot of Republicans—and for that matter, the final Gallup Poll—have been pointing towards. And there is definitely bad news for Democrats.

Fox and Hounds
November 02, 2010

CNN has holograms and touch screens and teleporters and tachyon impulse starships, so why the hell was Chris Wallace scrawling crap on a $10 white board on Fox News a few minutes ago? His handwriting sucks. Also, he said that he's really worried that folks are going to undersell the historical significance of Republican gains should they be major. Me too, Chris.

Dem Victories in OH, VT, WV?
November 02, 2010

CNN has released the head-to-head exit polls for selected statewide races where polls were closed, and though caution should be used in accepting this data (remember 2004?), it looks like Ted Strickland may be winning the Ohio governor's race, and that Peter Shumlin may be winning the Vermont governor's race. And hold onto your hats: The data also suggests Joe Manchin is winning the Senate race in West By God Virginia, which means you can forget about any Republican Senate.

"Fat Fingers" Hamper E-Voters
November 02, 2010

Volunteers here at Election Protection have been paying particular attention to New York today, since the state experienced serious mechanical issues with its new electronic-voting equipment during the September primary. But the dark-horse state for mechanical errors has been Pennsylvania. Today, volunteers from Verified Voting—a nonprofit group and member of the Election Protection coalition—have counted 58 calls about mechanical issues from Pennsylvania—one more than the 57 calls coming from New York.

Again, No Signs of a Tsunami Just Yet
November 02, 2010

The release of exit poll data is maddeningly scattered, but I gather some of the numbers are creating great consternation among Democrats. I don't quite see it.  So 41 percent of voters self-identify as conservative? So did 39 percent in 2006, and 44 percent in 2002. (Pew's final poll, which predicted a 6-point Republican advantage, about average, projected that 46 percent of voters would self-identify as conservative). 18 to 29-year-olds are 9 percent of the electorate, half of the percentage in 2008?

EXIT POLLS: A Wave, But Not a Tsunami?
November 02, 2010

So CNN just released the first bit of actually revealing national exit poll data: President Obama's job approval rating is 45 percent positive, 54 percent negative (looks like no one is ambivalent). Comparing this to some of the final polls, the final ABC/Washington Post poll, which gave Republicans only a 4-point advantage in House voting, had the Obama ratio at 46/52. The final Gallup "low-turnout" estimate, which gave Republicans a gigantic 15-point margin, had the Obama ratio at 40/56.  So based on this one data point, it looks like a wave, but maybe not a tsunami.

Not the Best Economic News Team on Television
November 02, 2010

At 5:00 I'll be tuning into Glenn Beck, a rich, sumptuous meal for the modern connoisseur of crazy media. So a rather bland, easily digestible appetizer seems like a good choice in the meantime. No point getting the fried tortellini and the bruschetta and the penne alla vodka. "CNN Newsroom," the garden salad of late-afternoon TV. Alas, as soon as I tuned in, Brooke Baldwin made the mistake of attempting to talk about the economy in a cogent way. Over shots of stock ticker displays, she said, "We've been talking a whole lot about jobs, jobs, jobs, with regard to this election.

Students Are Having Trouble Voting. (PLUS: Dirty Tricks in Colorado and Arizona.)
November 02, 2010

Troubles with voter registration have been some of the most common today—many of them involving students. In South Carolina, Common Cause, an organization run by former Congressman Bob Edgar, D-Pennsylvania, has received reports that students at Benedict College in Columbia, South Carolina were not allowed to vote because their voter registration addresses did not match the addresses on their driver’s licenses.   A similar problem has also surfaced in Michigan, where a group of University of Michigan law students—election protection volunteers—discovered that some of their University of Mi

Scott McAdams Tries to Charm Alaska to Death
November 02, 2010

It's still early in the day in here in Alaska, where voters are just heading to the polls. But all week it has been clear that Democratic Senate candidate Scott McAdams is in a bind. “The most disappointing part of this race is that people, instead of voting the issues, are actually voting their fears,” says McAdams's spokesperson, Heather Handyside.

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