Midterm Elections

Mama Grizzly Watch
November 02, 2010

One of the side-stories of this election will be how well Sarah Palin's adopted "Mama Grizzlies"—female conservatives—are doing.

The Old, The Young, And 2010
November 02, 2010

Last week, I cited a model showing that based solely on the number of seats held by the Democrats going into a midterm and personal income growth, Democrats would be expected to lose 45 seats in the House. That's based solely on fundamentals, with no consideration of the president's approval rating or anything else about how the public views his priorities. I did say I thought that total was probably 5-10 seats too low, "because President Obama rode a wave in 2008 that was unusually dependent on sporadic voters like the young and minorities, who tend not to turn out during midterm elections.

The Republicans Are Calling!
November 02, 2010

Apparently, it’s never too late to scare away voters. This evening, just before the polls closed in Maryland, voters in Baltimore and Prince George’s county reported to Election Protection that they had received robocalls advising them to relax, stay home, and watch the election on television. Ron Hube—a voter in Baltimore who works at the University of Maryland—played a recording of the call from his voicemail for TNR. A stilted recording of a woman’s voice relayed the following: “Governor O’Malley and President Obama have been successful … our goals have been met ... we took it back.

Sarah Palin Talks Trains, and Rand Paul Makes Me Feel Extreme Pain
November 02, 2010

Sarah Palin in the house on Fox! She just gave her thoughts (or "thoughts"), and she chose to run (ride?) a train-based metaphor to help explain to us, the lay viewers, what's going on in terms we can understand. (A snide person would say this is a strange choice on her part, given that an America run by Palin probably wouldn't have any trains at all, trains being a rather brazen example of the redistribution of transportation resources to those unable to afford cars.) What we're seeing out there in Real America, Palin explained, is that "the train's leaving the station.

Close Races? We Got 'Em.
November 02, 2010

It's beginning to become clear that the exact shape of this election (beyond the near-certainty of a Republican House and a Democratic Senate) isn't going to be definitively known until pretty late tonight. House races from such target-rich (for Republicans) states as Pennsylvania, Ohio, and New York are coming in very slowly. Two "early" races in Kentucky are so close that a call may not be made until virtually all votes are in. The Florida governor's race is very close, and although exits suggest Pat Toomey may have an advantage in Pennsylvania, that race, too, is very close. And now exit po

End of the Pelosi House
November 02, 2010

MSNBC is now projecting that Republicans will take the House. This is not at all surprising. Polls have predicted this outcome for a while. It means John Boehner will become speaker, that Darrell Issa will be firing off the subpoenas, and that the Tea Party crowd suddenly has an institutional base for power. It also means that Nancy Pelosi's tenure as speaker is over. I expect to read and hear a lot of people declaring that tonight's results show that she has failed. Do not be fooled. Not only was she the first woman to become speaker.

Less Good News for Democrats in the House
November 02, 2010

Early indications that Democrats seem to be holding their own in a lot of close races should not be misunderstood as in indication that the Donkey Party is having a good night; far from it. It just doesn't look like the vast tsunami a lot of Republicans—and for that matter, the final Gallup Poll—have been pointing towards. And there is definitely bad news for Democrats.

Fox and Hounds
November 02, 2010

CNN has holograms and touch screens and teleporters and tachyon impulse starships, so why the hell was Chris Wallace scrawling crap on a $10 white board on Fox News a few minutes ago? His handwriting sucks. Also, he said that he's really worried that folks are going to undersell the historical significance of Republican gains should they be major. Me too, Chris.

Dem Victories in OH, VT, WV?
November 02, 2010

CNN has released the head-to-head exit polls for selected statewide races where polls were closed, and though caution should be used in accepting this data (remember 2004?), it looks like Ted Strickland may be winning the Ohio governor's race, and that Peter Shumlin may be winning the Vermont governor's race. And hold onto your hats: The data also suggests Joe Manchin is winning the Senate race in West By God Virginia, which means you can forget about any Republican Senate.

"Fat Fingers" Hamper E-Voters
November 02, 2010

Volunteers here at Election Protection have been paying particular attention to New York today, since the state experienced serious mechanical issues with its new electronic-voting equipment during the September primary. But the dark-horse state for mechanical errors has been Pennsylvania. Today, volunteers from Verified Voting—a nonprofit group and member of the Election Protection coalition—have counted 58 calls about mechanical issues from Pennsylvania—one more than the 57 calls coming from New York.

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