Will the Conventions Move Florida or North Carolina?
September 07, 2012

While Obama and McCain got a host-state bounce in 2008, Obama and Romney might not get one in 2012.

Romney’s Climate Change Nihilism
August 31, 2012

Romney's snipe at Obama last night was meant to assure conservatives that only losers care about global warming.

The Red State-Blue State Divide, As Seen by Amazon Books
August 23, 2012

It's a good thing Mitt Romney isn't living off of his book royalties.

Don’t Live in the Past! How 2012’s Electoral Map Could Differ From 2008
August 02, 2012

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Is Minnesota the Newest Swing State?
July 23, 2012

Why isn’t Minnesota a swing state?

Confessions of an Ex-Mormon
July 13, 2012

A personal history of America’s most misunderstood religion

Super PAC Expands Midwestern Playing Field
July 12, 2012

If there’s anywhere the GOP’s fundraising advantage could pay dividends, it’s in the demographically vulnerable and undefended flank of Obama’s path to 270: the Upper Midwest.

Why Isn't Romney Competing in Minnesota?
June 19, 2012

With ad spending increasing each week, it's clear by now what the battleground states are—and it's clear that Minnesota isn't one of them. It may not be surprising that neither campaign has aired ads in the North Star State, as Minnesota is perhaps best known in politics as the state with the longest consecutive streak of voting for Democratic presidential candidates, having last voted Republican in 1972.

Will Obama Regret His Decision Not to Buy Ads in Michigan?
June 14, 2012

With the financial balance of power shifting toward the Republicans, Democrats are understandably alarmed that a deluge of cash from outside groups and Wall Street could swamp Obama’s reelection efforts. As an initial step, the Obama campaign has concentrated their expenditures on a smaller number of swing states, ensuring that they at least remain competitive in the markets they consider most important. But when you concentrate resources, some areas end up short-changed, and the decision to narrow the playing field has left Obama without substantial purchases in several media markets.

What Does Ron Paul Really Want?
May 05, 2012

In 2008, nobody much cared what Ron Paul wanted: He was dismissed as a fringe candidate, someone defined by the decades he spent losing 434-to-one votes in the House and refusing to endorse his party’s presidential candidate. In this presidential cycle, however, questions about Paul’s intentions have risen, precisely because his performance has begun to resemble that of a conventional politician who can compete if not win.