Daily Breakdown: Is Obama Struggling in Nevada?
September 28, 2012

Without CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac, today was all but assured to be a better polling day for Romney. That said, the polls still suggest that Obama leads nationally, as well as in states worth 348 electoral votes. Let's talk about Nevada. In most of the electoral maps produced here over the last four months, Nevada was presumed to be one of the very first battleground states to enter Obama's column.

Romney Says He Cares. His Agenda Disagrees.
September 27, 2012

Romney says he cares. Romney's agenda suggests otherwise.

Can Bob Woodward Save Mitt Romney?
September 26, 2012

There's an amusing Beltway notion that undecided voters are highly informed types who, say, read Bob Woodward. A new Romney ad buys in.

The Aimless Career of James Carter IV
September 20, 2012

Before Jimmy Carter's grandson found the secret Romney video, he was a drifting, unmotivated policy researcher. Now, he's found his calling.

Daily Breakdown: Gallup and Rasmussen v. World
September 20, 2012

The polls are a bit of a mess right now, but the sources of disagreement seem a little clearer today. A big polling duel might be shaping up for November: Gallup and Rasmussen v. World. Before delving into details, let's not forget that the big picture is quite clear. If we simply ignored trendlines or the characteristics of the firms, an average of polls would show Obama clearly ahead nationally, probably by about four points, and clearly ahead in the big East Coast battlegrounds by a similar margin. Would there be a relatively big spread in the polls?

Daily Breakdown: Mixed Signals
September 19, 2012

Everyone should agree that Obama is a favorite to win reelection. The question is whether he’s simply a modest favorite or quite likely to prevail. The answer depends on the resilience of Obama’s bounce. If Obama enters the debates ahead by 4 points among likely voters, as he was immediately following the DNC, he'd be a very strong favorite.

Ryan Murphy's New Show Reduces Cultural Bigotry to a Personal Problem
September 17, 2012

“The New Normal,” the latest sitcom from “Glee” creator Ryan Murphy, began stoking conservative outrage even before it aired. It was banned from NBC’s Salt Lake City affiliate; the Christian group One Million Moms blasted it for promoting the “decay of morals and values.” But it is hard, at first glance, to understand all the fuss.

Daily Breakdown: Romney's Best Polling Day Since DNC
September 15, 2012

The state polls looked as close as they were prior to the conventions.

Daily Breakdown: Romney Trails In Must-Win Battlegrounds
September 14, 2012

The big picture: Obama continues to hold a modest but clear lead nationally and in critical battleground states like Ohio, Virginia, and Florida.  This is alot, so let’s digest it in segments. Good News For Obama Nearly every poll was consistent with a modest Obama lead nationally of about 4 points and a meaningful edge in the electoral college. Obama hit fifty percent in three national polls and led by four or more in four of the five national surveys.

Did Romney Flip-Flop (Again) on Health Care?
September 10, 2012

Romney hasn’t changed his position on pre-existing conditions, although he probably wishes he could.