Daily Breakdown: Close Race Heading Into Day 2
August 29, 2012

The first night of the RNC didn't move the numbers, contrary to what one snap poll suggested.

An Early Electoral College Guide: Which States Will and Won't Matter in 2012
August 26, 2012

2012 is shaping up as an election in which the winner may earn victory not by virtue of winning the most votes, but on account of the Electoral College. If one candidate enjoys a popular vote edge of 2 percentage points or more, there’s virtually no chance that the other candidate will achieve a majority of the electoral votes.

Daily Breakdown: Romney Gains?
August 22, 2012

Why your friends seem to agree with you on everything.

Sheldon Adelson: No One Man Should Have All That Power
August 13, 2012

The sheer size of Sheldon Adelson's donations to Republican causes poses a real ethical quandary for Mitt Romney.

The Inscrutable Life and Death of Marilyn Monroe
August 06, 2012

Fifty years ago, late on August 4 or in the early hours of August 5—so little can be said of her with certainty—Marilyn Monroe died, and began her life in legend. This was only 50 years ago, in Los Angeles, when she was a very important if vague person who may have known even more important persons. There were doctors in attendance, and then coroners; there were police investigations. The world decided it was shocked and stricken by the sudden departure of the 36-year-old, yet not surprised.

Is Minnesota the Newest Swing State?
July 23, 2012

Why isn’t Minnesota a swing state?

State Unemployment Rates Aren't Moving The Polls
July 20, 2012

State economies get a lot of media attention. In Nevada, the state’s sky-high unemployment rate is a must-mention for political analysts, while every article about Virginia or Iowa notes the unusually low unemployment rate. Although political reporters insist on stressing state economic performance, studies have found that state-level unemployment has no relationship to state presidential outcomes. Will history repeat itself?

Why Obama Shouldn't Be Taking the Black Vote for Granted
July 12, 2012

There’s no question that Hispanics are among the most coveted voting blocs for November’s election. Numerically, they’re the fastest growing minority group in the U.S. population. Major media regularly monitor their presidential preferences.

New Data on Obama's Massive Demographic Advantage
July 09, 2012

It’s widely acknowledged by political observers that the country’s demographic change in the last four years—particularly the increase in minority voters and decline of white non-college voters—favors President Obama’s re-election bid. What’s less obvious is exactly how much these changes favor Obama—especially in the swing states that loom so large in this coming election. These data can be hard to come by.

Revisiting Arizona
June 26, 2012

With the Supreme Court’s ruling on the Arizona law and the Obama administration’s recent decision to halt deportations and allow work authorization for certain young undocumented workers likely to gin up enthusiasm among Latino voters, it’s worth revisiting the math in 2012’s stealth battleground: Arizona. Neither campaign is airing advertisements in Arizona, but the Obama campaign has boots on the ground registering voters in an attempt to vault the state into the toss-up column.