The New Republic

Before Ohio reclaimed its spot at the center of the electoral map, there was a strong case that Virginia was positioned to be the pivotal state of the 2012 election. READ MORE >>

The campaign’s blanketed the country over the last few days, but both have settled on reinforcing their quickest to 270 for the last day of the campaign. Obama is hitting each of the three firewall states that add up to 272 electoral votes, and Romney is hitting 4 states that get him to 270, provided he also wins North Carolina. Romney Sanford, Seminole County, FL READ MORE >>

The turnout assumptions of pollsters are increasingly under scrutiny, with the polls often showing Democrats with a persistent advantage in party-ID. Many hold that the polls assume an unrealistically high Democratic turnout, mainly based on the assumption that Democratic, young, and minority turnout was anomalously high in 2008 and can’t be repeated, while Republicans who stayed home are destined to rise from their couches. READ MORE >>

Early voting will be wrapping up across the battleground states over the next few days and spin wars are already underway to declare one side the winner. But as a general rule, folks should be more circumspect about early voting.  The main issue is the absence of an adequate baseline. There has never been a close national election in the era of 35-40 percent early voting and we just don’t know what constitutes a good or bad showing for Democrats or Republicans in many of these states.  READ MORE >>

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Yesterday wasn't an exciting day in the polls and nothing upended contours of the race.  For what it's worth (nothing in the Electoral College, to be specific), Obama fared pretty well in yesterday's national polls and was up by a wide margin in Washington State, where Obama appears to be holding near '08 levels.  READ MORE >>

The list of battleground states has exploded with one week before the election. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota are suddenly receiving millions of dollars after most assumed they rested safely in Obama’s column. Many Obama fans are fretting and Romney fans are enthralled that they’re on the offensive. But interpreting ad spending is extraordinarily difficult in this election and these buys are insufficient to alter perceptions of the state of the race. READ MORE >>

With just one week before next Tuesday’s presidential election, the Romney campaign has apparently decided to embark on a last-minute effort to win the Keystone State. But while Pennsylvania is always tempting for Republicans, there's a reason Democrats always seem to win by a slight margin. And despite Obama's weakness in coal country, that pattern seems likely to endure through this election.  READ MORE >>

 A quiet polling day as Sandy made landfall in the northeast. While there have been plenty of days when many felt that the trackers and national polls were unusually divergent, yesterday's polls were all tightly clustered around a tied national race. On average, the 19 national polls conducted since October 15 show Obama ahead 47.47 to 47.26, while Romney holds an even slighter 47.66 to 47.58 lead in the 12 national polls conducting live interviews with cell phones over the same period.  READ MORE >>

2008 results:    Electionate coverage: Romney's Florida Lead Hinges On Hispanics | 10/28/12 No, Obama Shouldn't Concede Florida | 10/22/12 READ MORE >>