North Carolina

Paul Ryan, Numbers Guy?
August 23, 2012

Paul Ryan uses faulty math to blame Obama for looming Pentagon cuts.

Daily Breakdown: Bad Polls and Romney's Cash
August 20, 2012

Not much of a change in the polls, but Romney's cash advantage looms over the horizon

The Campaigns Should Keep Spending in North Carolina
August 09, 2012

The campaigns are pouring millions of dollars into North Carolina and the polls show a tight race, but Nate Silver doesn’t think that the state is worth the investment. While he is certainly right that North Carolina is unlikely to prove decisive, it’s easy to envision how the Tar Heel state could play a pivotal role in 2012.

Well Educated Voters Might Be Moving Public Policy Polling Results
August 02, 2012

Public Policy Polling nailed the 2008 results, but PPP’s polls have sometimes seemed a little strange so far in 2012. First, they leaned heavily toward Obama. Then they came back down to earth, but showed Obama struggling among non-white voters (an unlikely scenario). So what’s going on? It might be education. Since their June 14-to-17 survey, PPP has released educational breakdowns for their DailyKos/SEIU national tracking poll.

Don’t Live in the Past! How 2012’s Electoral Map Could Differ From 2008
August 02, 2012

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So Goes Poland, So Goes America
July 30, 2012

After months defending traditionally red states like North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, and Ohio, Romney has finally decided to launch an offensive. Where? Poland: The predictably undefended flank of Obama’s route to 270 electoral votes. Poland is the ancestral homeland of about 3 percent of the American population, but a higher share of a few traditionally Democratic but potentially competitive states, like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, where Polish-Americans constitute between 7 and 10 percent of the population.

The Key to a Romney Win in Pennsylvania: Mondale Democrats
July 18, 2012

Every four years, political reporters flood western Pennsylvania searching for the latest clue to decipher the shifting allegiances of coveted “Reagan Democrats,” the socially conservative voters who abandoned the New Deal coalition over cultural issues in the '70's and '80's. When a candidate visits Pennsylvania, the accompanying news reports remind us that “Reagan Democrats” are the consummate swing voters who maintain a stranglehold over the outcome of critical races in large industrial Midwestern states like Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

The Week in Strange and Small Super PACs: Moms and Dads edition
July 16, 2012

It’s time again to look in on the past week’s stranger super PACs—the small PACs you’ve never heard of that will affect congressional and Senate races across the country. No new super PACs spent their first dime in the last week, but two existing PACs worth highlighting did make independent expenditures.

Obama Is Well Positioned In Virginia
July 16, 2012

As I explained in this week's issue of the print magazine, the resilience of Obama's "new coalition" of upscale whites and minorities has allowed Obama to remain competitive in North Carolina, a state that voted for him by just 14,000 votes in 2008. It also augurs poorly for Romney in Virginia, an extremely similar state where the same forces keeping North Carolina close might just keep Virginia in the Democratic column. Obama’s Virginia coalition might be the most resilient of any battleground state.

Will Voter ID Laws Cost Obama Reelection?
July 16, 2012

The possibility that new voter-ID laws could disenfranchise thousands of Democratic- voters in pivotal swing states has received considerable attention recently. After all, 9.2 percent of registered voters in Pennsylvania lack photo identification, including 18 percent of registered voters in heavily Democratic Philadelphia. But these flashy numbers might be misleading. If voter-ID laws have consequences for voter turnout, they’re difficult to detect. Several studies conducted in the wake of the 2006 midterms showed a weak correlation between tougher voter-ID laws and reduced turnout.