March 04, 2008
Experience vs. Change
With Barack Obama winning 11 contests since Super Tuesday, and appearing well on his way to winning a clear majority of elected delegates, it looks unlikely that Hillary Clinton could win the Democratic nomination without depending on the unelected party stalwarts (“superdelegates”) to push her over the top. History provides us with a test case of this scenario, in which a major party faced a choice between the managerial (but perhaps less than visionary) heir to a successful previous administration, and an inspiring, popular speaker.
John Mccain, Economic Fuddy Duddy
John McCain will be a formidable general election candidate, I know, but I still think economic policy is going to bedevil him politically. In his remarks to supporters tonight, he devoted all of three paragraphs to economic issues. That's not a huge amount of attention for what is, according to most polls I've seen, the voters' top concern. But put that aside and look at the way he talked about it:* I will leave it to my opponent to argue that we should abrogate trade treaties, and pretend the global economy will go away and Americans can secure our future by trading and investing only amon
The Mccain - Clinton Ticket
It's one thing for Hillary Clinton to attack Barack Obama, the overwhelmingly likely Democratic nominee, in terms virtually identical to those used by John McCain, his presumed general-election opponent. It's another thing for her to do this while explicitly praising McCain relative to Obama: Defending her provocative television ad suggesting he was not up to the challenge of answering the White House phone at 3 a.m. in a crisis, she told reporters at a news conference Monday in Toledo: "I have a lifetime of experience I will bring to the White House.
March 03, 2008
Breaking Down The Buckeye State
Hillary Clinton started in Ohio with "every advantage you can think of," as John C. Green, a professor at the University of Akron, explains--endorsements, support from the party machinery, and relatively favorable demographic terrain. But Barack Obama, down as many as 17 points just three weeks ago, has been making up ground, and with speed. Will he make up enough to win?
What A Long, Strange Trip It's Been
WASHINGTON--So how did the contest for the Democratic presidential nomination come down to a choice between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton? We have become so accustomed to their pounding each other relentlessly that we've forgotten that this is a remarkable endgame. To be sure, just about everyone anticipated that when the field narrowed, Clinton would be one of the contenders left standing.
A Document For Our Times
Dennis Ross wrote an article last week for TNR on-line which, while it is not exactly my take on American options in Iraq, is an important contribution to a real debate on future policy. But we are not having a real debate, certainly not in the Democratic Party in which the two candidates are arguing over who was right first and more consistently. Ross, an authoritative voice on matters Middle Eastern, believes that neither Hillary's nor Obama's position on withdrawal is realistic. And the fact is that they are not realistic because the surge has itself changed the variables.
Senate Looking Great For Democrats
The Swing State project has a fun, detailed rundown up of the Democrats' 2008 Senate prospects. It's worth looking at to get a sense of how things stand downticket. (I know, I know: There are elections besides Hillary versus Obama?) Upshot: Say '08 is only a medium year for Democrats and they win only five of the ten most competitive Senate races (in '06, by contrast, they won* every single competitive race but one). And say Joe Lieberman becomes a Republican.
Over on the Stump, Noam's frequently noted the theory that voters don't really want Hillary to win, but they don't want to see her lose, either -- and if that theory's true, they probably particularly don't want to see her go out in a humiliating way. I don't think this front page New York Times story does Obama much good: [A]fter 30 minutes of cold-calling, the [Hillary] volunteers, a mix of soft-spoken professionals and grizzled unionists, were beginning to wilt from the rejections. “Oh really?” one woman at the phone bank was overheard saying again and again.
Canada Strikes Back
If you haven't been following this Austan Goolsbee/Canadian consulate mini-flap, this piece is probably as good a place as any to get up to speed. I was actually alerted to the piece--which focuses on a memo written by a Canadian consular official after Goolsbee's meeting there--by the Clinton campaign. But while it's clearly an annoyance for the Obama campaign, it doesn't strike me as hugely damning. Anyway, here's the key passage, based on the memo: Goolsbee disputed a section that read: "Noting anxiety among many U.S. domestic audiences about the U.S.
Are The Obama Wonks Really So Great?
My piece about Obama's wonks seems to have generated a lot of feedback last week (see, for example, Kevin Drum, Ezra Klein, and Matt Yglesias). Since many of the responses raised similar points, I figured I'd address them all at once. The most common objection is that I deemed Obama's policy shop to be better or more sophisticated than Hillary's, when in fact they take similar (if not identical) positions on maybe 90 percent of the issues facing the country.