February 05, 2008
Not So Super
This election season, "superdelegate" endorsements have been presented by the press as a critical metric in the race for the Democratic nomination for president. The 796 superdelegates--party insiders who will make up 20 percent of the 4,049 votes at the Denver convention--have been called "an obscure but powerful group," a "unique political force," and flatly "anti-democratic." Delegate-tracking scorecards such as CNN's are already counting them as part of each candidates' tallies.
Missouri is “a relentlessly average state”--according to University of Missouri professor David Robertson--with an economy that mimics the national economy, and demographics similar to the nation as a whole. “Missouri is a natural laboratory” of American politics, Robertson says--if it’s happening there, there’s a good bet it’s happening countrywide. The primaries also echo national trends: Obama and Clinton are tied, pitting the Democratic establishment against the party's “mavericks” and Obama’s strong local organization (which benefits from volunteers out of nearby Illinois).
Because Utah is heavily Republican, Democrats don’t usually spend a lot of time campaigning here, even in the primaries. This year, however, the Democrats are waging an aggressive campaign: Barack visited the state last summer and Michelle Obama recently campaigned here, while Clinton sent Chelsea to the Beehive State last week. It’s the Republicans who have pulled back from campaigning for the primary, by and large deciding it isn’t worthwhile to take on Romney.
Polls Don't Lie—Except These Polls
Hillarycare And History
Today's David Brooks column, which reexamines Hillary Clinton's record during the 1993-94 health care fight, offers an important reminder of the antipathy she has generated not just among many average Americans but also among some members of Congress. That, by itself, raises important questions about whether she could really master Washington better than Barack Obama could -- a claim she and her supporters frequently make. But what about the underlying reality that Brooks describes: Did Clinton really botch things back then as much as Brooks -- and pretty much everybody else -- seems to th
February 04, 2008
Like a growing contingent of western and Midwestern states, Colorado is trending blue in local and federal representation, and barely chose George W. Bush over John Kerry in 2004. The purple state is Barack Obama’s purported bread and butter--so a strong showing, despite Clinton’s early advantage among Colorado Democrats, will bolster this campaign argument.
West Virginia may not be the most eagerly anticipated Super Tuesday state, but it promises to keep things interesting with one of the earliest and least predictable votes. The new GOP convention/primary format comes with a dizzying number of rules and makes it difficult to tell who is actually in the lead. Romney seems to have the most support, but 48 percent of delegates remain undecided, so the state is “still up for grabs” among the candidates, says Lynn Staton, associate chairman of the state Republican Party.
The TNR Q&A: Joe Trippi
Until John Edwards ended his bid for the Democratic nomination last week, Joe Trippi was one of his chief campaign strategists. Before that, Trippi was best known for his role as the strategic guru behind Howard Dean's rise, though he had worked as an organizer and strategist for Democratic presidential candidates dating back to the Kennedy campaign in 1980. Noam Scheiber recently profiled Trippi in TNR, and he spoke to him this past weekend about the highlights and lowlights of the Edwards campaign, and what to expect from the Democratic race going forward.
Only the Democrats are holding their New Mexico caucus (AKA, primary--see below) on Super Tuesday, as the New Mexico Republicans must wait till June 3 to vote. There have not been any public polls in New Mexico for “months and months,” says University of New Mexico professor F. Chris Garcia, and so it’s going to be a tough one to call.
A few months ago, New York was all but a lock for its two hometown candidates--Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton. But Giuliani didn’t even make it to Super Tuesday, and Clinton, while still holding on to a wide lead over Obama, is feeling the effects of a national swell of support for her opponent.