Tom Jensen shouts for people to pay attention to the growing chance that Democrats take back the House: I think most national pundits continue to be missing the boat on how possible it is that Democrats will retake control of the House next year. We find Democrats with a 7 point lead on the generic Congressional ballot this week at 47-40. After getting demolished with independent voters last year, they now hold a slight 39-36 advantage with them.
Tom Jensen on the Republican primary threat: The fact that someone like Hutchison who has generally been among the more popular Senators in the country and has always won by wide margins has been at least partially pushed out by the Tea Party is indicative of a new reality for Republican Senators- pretty much no incumbent is safe if these folks decide to target them.
Tom Jensen has a good take on the enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans: When we talk about the enthusiasm gap there's generally an assumption that it's a product of Democrats who went out and voted for Obama but haven't been happy with the pace of change so they're now not going to vote this year. I don't think that's quite right though- on our last national poll among the people who said they were only 'somewhat excited' about voting or 'not very excited' about voting Obama's approval was a 58/35 spread, much better than his overall numbers.
Yesterday I wrote that Democrats' political liabilities at the moment include, though are not limited to, a morbidly depressed base. Tom Jensen notes that the enthusiasm gap manifested itself yesterday in Illinois: Based on the current numbers 885,268 voters were cast in the Democratic primary for Senate compared to 736,137 on the Republican side.