The split between the popular vote and the Electoral College isn't as simple as Ohio.
Instead, follow the polls and the candidates.
Romney can't make outsized gains in a state where McCain did relatively well, allowing demographic changes to keep Obama in the game.
Romney is pouring money into Iowa and Wisconsin—and Obama isn't matching him.
Obama has a strong polling weekend.
It's probably a bid for Wisconsin and momentum.
The three states get Obama to 271 electoral votes, enough for a victory.
But Romney did well in the national polls.
The 9 battleground states are so diverse that movement among demographic could change the election.
Obama is struggling in states where he was most dependent on support of whites--except for Ohio.