Romney needs good polls from more than just Rasmussen and a firm commissioned by Citizens United.
Wednesday's polls showed Obama well-positioned across the battleground states.
The split between the popular vote and the Electoral College isn't as simple as Ohio.
Instead, follow the polls and the candidates.
Romney can't make outsized gains in a state where McCain did relatively well, allowing demographic changes to keep Obama in the game.
Romney is pouring money into Iowa and Wisconsin—and Obama isn't matching him.
Obama has a strong polling weekend.
It's probably a bid for Wisconsin and momentum.
The three states get Obama to 271 electoral votes, enough for a victory.
But Romney did well in the national polls.