Obama’s Stunning Ohio Turnaround
September 25, 2012
The story of the 2012 campaign is Obama's success in the swing state he was thought to be weakest in: Ohio. How did he pull it off?
Friendly Reminder: The Polls Are Usually Right
September 25, 2012
Despite the criticisms, the polls usually perform well on Election Day.
Daily Breakdown: Romney's Chances Are In Jeopardy
September 24, 2012
Obama's four point lead is alot better than it might look.
Daily Breakdown: Obama Leads Out West
September 21, 2012
The big picture remains that Obama leads by around four points, with a similar edge across the critical battleground states. The poll most likely to scream “headline” is Gallup, which is so far out of line from the other registered voter surveys that I don’t even know what to say about it. Obama leads by about 7 points among registered voters, and, no, the methodological criticisms you’ve heard don’t explain a gap of that magnitude. As Harry Enten of the Guardian (@ForecasterEnten) tweeted today, we would probably blow this off as a clear outlier if it was named something other than Gallup.
Colorado Emerging As A Possible Bright Spot for Romney
September 19, 2012
How Colorado Went From Democratic Savior to Toss-up
How Paul Ryan Convinced Washington of His Genius
September 14, 2012
Paul Ryan's rise from fitness instructor to philosopher prince.
Why Romney's Money Advantage is No Game-Changer
September 10, 2012
With the memory of the conventions fading and initial signs pointing toward an Obama bounce, attention is already turning to Romney’s ability to mount a comeback. In the minds of many, Team Romney’s financial advantage tops the list of reasons for Republican optimism. Indeed, the Romney campaign and its allied super PACs are poised to spend millions on a historic advertising campaign that some argue could bury Obama and swing undecided voters toward Romney. And yet ... There are good reasons to doubt whether Romney will get his money’s worth.