Romney’s Performance Is a Test for the Media
October 04, 2012
A critical test for the media: Will it call out Romney for his distortions at Wednesday night's debate?
Daily Breakdown: Is Obama Struggling in Nevada?
September 28, 2012
Without CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac, today was all but assured to be a better polling day for Romney. That said, the polls still suggest that Obama leads nationally, as well as in states worth 348 electoral votes. Let's talk about Nevada. In most of the electoral maps produced here over the last four months, Nevada was presumed to be one of the very first battleground states to enter Obama's column.
Daily Breakdown: Obama's Bounce Cascades Across Battleground States
September 26, 2012
Obama's national advantage is buttressed by a lead in states worth 348 electoral votes.
Obama’s Stunning Ohio Turnaround
September 25, 2012
The story of the 2012 campaign is Obama's success in the swing state he was thought to be weakest in: Ohio. How did he pull it off?
Friendly Reminder: The Polls Are Usually Right
September 25, 2012
Despite the criticisms, the polls usually perform well on Election Day.
Daily Breakdown: Romney's Chances Are In Jeopardy
September 24, 2012
Obama's four point lead is alot better than it might look.
Daily Breakdown: Obama Leads Out West
September 21, 2012
The big picture remains that Obama leads by around four points, with a similar edge across the critical battleground states. The poll most likely to scream “headline” is Gallup, which is so far out of line from the other registered voter surveys that I don’t even know what to say about it. Obama leads by about 7 points among registered voters, and, no, the methodological criticisms you’ve heard don’t explain a gap of that magnitude. As Harry Enten of the Guardian (@ForecasterEnten) tweeted today, we would probably blow this off as a clear outlier if it was named something other than Gallup.