SEQUESTER FEBRUARY 22, 2013
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Congressional Republicans have done a pretty good job pretending not to care that the planned March 1 sequestration will cut $43 billion out of this year’s defense budget. Sure, it’s an “ugly and dangerous way” to cut spending, says House Speaker John Boehner. But, he says, “it is here to stay” if the alternative is a tax increase, as President Obama has proposed. Though the president has indicated he’d also be willing to cut spending, the speaker has offered no similar give: “The tax debate is now closed,” he says. No agreement to cancel the sequester will be acceptable if it includes a tax increase.
So much for Capitol Hill Republicans. GOP governors, on the other hand, have had much greater difficulty maintaining their composure about a prospective sequester. That’s because governors experience the economy in a way that members of Congress do not. If a state’s economy goes south, it’s the governor who tends to get blamed. And according to USA Today, the states hit hardest by planned Army sequester cuts “include Alabama, Texas, Virginia, and Pennsylvania,” while the states hit hardest by planned Navy sequester cuts would be California, Florida, and Virginia. All but one of those states has a Republican governor. And no Republican governor is hurting more right now than Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell, who until three months ago was chairman of the Republican Governors Association, and remains on its executive committee. (McDonnell’s successor, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, has avoided weighing in on the sequestration fight, but in a January speech said, “We must not become the party of austerity, we must become the party of growth.”)
In cutting a total of $85 billion from this year’s federal budget, the sequester will deliver plenty of pain to Republican and Democratic constituencies alike. But half of that pain is allocated specifically to the Pentagon. That’s only fair, since the Pentagon accounts for more than half of all discretionary spending, to which the sequestration cuts are confined. But no sequestration cuts to other federal agencies even come close. We can argue about whether the Pentagon has $43 billion to spare—I think it probably does—but not about which state will suffer most from these defense cuts. That state is Virginia. And McDonnell is being anything but stoic.
Exhibit A is a letter McDonnell sent Obama on Feb. 18. It more or less begs Obama to cancel the sequester:
"The automatic sequestration reductions mandated by the Budget Control Act of 2011 are already having a significant adverse effect on the Commonwealth. When fully implemented, they could force Virginia and other states into a recession…. These reductions will have a potentially devastating impact in the Commonwealth, with the Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads regions at greatest risk."
Note that McDonnell departs from the conservative party line in bringing up the R word (“recession”). Republicans have in the past talked like “weaponized Keynesians,” Paul Krugman’s phrase for the belief that military spending, alone among all the different varieties of federal spending, can be justified on job-creation grounds.1 But they’ve abandoned that doctrine for the moment because if the GOP is going to get blamed for sequestration (as even Republicans seem to grasp they might), then the GOP will also have to get blamed for any economic hardship that results, up to and including a recession, which stands well within the realm of possibililty. If Republicans are going to favor sequester, then the correct conservative line on the economic impact of sequestration must be “no worries.” (Larry Kudlow goes so far as to call sequestration “pro-growth.”) McDonnell isn’t playing along.
McDonnell’s a very conservative politician, but no Virginia governor is in a position to pretend that government doesn’t create jobs. Citing a report by the Virginia Economic Development Partnership, McDonnell notes that six percent of all federal workers reside in Virginia, and that sequestration could lower the state’s economic output by 0.6 percent. Close to 10 percent of all jobs lost as a result of sequestration would be in Virginia. By one estimate, the state’s economy could end up suffering more than it did during the Great Recession.
In sum, the prospect of sequestration is cause for panic inside the Virginia governor’s mansion (and at a time when McDonnell is already getting hammered by Grover Norquist for his overhaul of state taxes). The Obama administration has taken astute notice, and has scheduled for this Tuesday a speech at a Navy shipbuilding yard in Newport News, where the sequester threatens to halt maintenance work on a Nimitz-class carrier named—could the symbolism get much better?—the USS Abraham Lincoln. Wuxtry, wuxtry! Party of Lincoln Mothballs Honest Abe! What’s that, Gov. McDonnell? You say, a deal including a tax increase would be all right with you? Could you say it a little louder so the crowd can hear?
All right, that last bit probably won’t happen. But if congressional Republicans are going to cave on sequestration, I predict it will come after Obama parades his hostage, Bob McDonnell, through the streets of Newport News.
17 comments
Debt ceiling, fiscal cliff, sequester, the fun is in the euphemisms. My all-time favorite is whiskey rebellion, which only tangentially involved whiskey and, like the euphemisms of today, was really about taxes, or more specifically, not wanting to pay them. Tax rebellion has no appeal; whiskey rebellion does, especially for old ladies who favor temperance. What these terms have in common is that they have ordinary meanings that are the opposite from their use. Nobody was rebelling against whiskey (quite the opposite), there is no debt ceiling (glass or otherwise), the fiscal cliff had no cliff, and nobody is going to hide away (sequester) anything. I'm southern, so I understand and appreciate euphemisms; southerners seldom say what they mean. But most southerners know the code, so communicating in euphemisms is an accepted practice that, if anything, improves understanding. We're all southerners now. I'm so proud of Noah that he has a good job writing fine essays for this esteemed magazine.
- rayward
February 22, 2013 at 7:32am
Ah memories - the consulting firm I worked for in DC closed during the last Republican engineered shut down, putting fifty private sector people out of work in one day. Good thing we were in the middle of the Clinton Boom, no such luck this time. While I am enjoying watching the loathsome, crotch monitoring governor of VA beg and squirm, I'm feeling very angry for all of those paycheck to paycheck people out there who will be directly impacted by this - all in the name of protecting a small nub of rich people from paying what they owe to a country that gave them everything. That shut down did a splendidly efficient job of dismantling any dregs of legitimacy the Republican Party had with the general public. and I assume it will work as well this time (although the party doesn't have much left anyway. Obama's approval rating is the highest since 2009). Such a shame that anyone has to suffer at all in this crisis hats been completely manufactured- by a party with almost no legitimacy, no less. Will there be any doubt left as to the only goals left with the Republican Party? They are obviously trying to crash the economy because if it continues to rise, then all of their trickle down fairy tales will continue to be demolished. "Austerity" has only this goal in mind.
- WandreyCer
February 22, 2013 at 8:23am
I wish Obama would publicly declare that every dollar in revenue enhancements will be specifically targeted for defense and then dare Republicans to argue that loopholes for the rich has priority over the national defense. I would be happy to parade in front of Boehner office with a sign that says "repeal the obamaquester"
- blackton
February 22, 2013 at 10:04am
Although hideous policy, I think the sequester is politically terrific. Much lower impact economically than the debt ceiling (by a factor of 10), but a chance, finally, for the Republicans and their wacko supporter orders finally to eat a full helping of the economic garbage that the right is handing out. We are never going to get out of the mess we are in as long as something like 50% of the population believes the flat-earth, creationist economic nonsense that the right spews. And the only way the morons are ever going to figure it out is if they finally have some direct experience of what right-wing wackonomics produces. My only concern is that Obama has not done enough to make clear how bad this is so that, when it happens, there is ample opportunity for saying I told you so and that it is time to get off the right-wing austerity train to oblivion. I want Republican blood on the floor, and this is the way to get it. Once the Republicans have skewered themselves, there is the possibility of a return to sanity.
- roidubouloi
February 22, 2013 at 10:24am
Well said.
- tmmats
February 22, 2013 at 10:36am
Tell it Roi.
- WandreyCer
February 22, 2013 at 11:55am
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I imagine the 'sequester' room being a big, dark, damp basement below the 7th level of hell...also called the lower level of Capital Hill where we shoo Congress inside, turn the lights off and slowly fill the room with water. Panic ensues, the 'rats' begin tearing at one another and eventually they all die off. The America can get to work rebuilding itself after getting this bunch of yahoos out of their own way.
- singlspeed
February 22, 2013 at 2:20pm
What does Ken Cucinelli think of the Obamaquester? Surely he's all on board with what is a fine first step toward baking in the Freedom Pie in America and saving us from rampant Greecification by limiting runaway government spending and putting us on the road to fiscal prosperity. And surely he thinks that all that unemployment in Virginia that will result from the Obamaquester is just a few eggshells on the way to baking a glorious Freedom Omlet in the Commonwealth. Right, Kenny Boy? Or is he getting a mite nervous that, if sequestration hits Virginia the way most people anticipate, he will be lucky as a Republican to finish second in a three-way race for Governor with McAuliffe and Bolling??
- wildboy
February 22, 2013 at 2:29pm
On this new no new taxes pledge, is there something the Republicans point to that is at stake in higher taxes other than their own interest in raising campaign capital? Do they believe the economy can't handle higher taxes that were higher recently in the Clinton years and up to a top rate of 91% in the past? Or are they really just so worried that more tax revenues will cause terrible problems like spending and free giveaways to lazy people , but borrowing does not create those problems?
- Nusholtz
February 22, 2013 at 2:42pm
I'm somewhat curious as to why a Governor is writing to the President to cancel an act of congress? Perhaps he could write to his parties' caucus instead?
- Nari224
February 22, 2013 at 2:52pm
“ Be very careful if you manage to get authenticated on the Ipad app. It requires using an e-mail address rather than your username (e.g., malahat). Trouble is, once you do that and get access to the Ipad app, your e-mail address also becomes your username on the web version and those e-mail addressed-based credentials are what you have to use to log into the web version. Then you find your username has been changed to the e-mail address you signed in as. I changed mine back to "malahat" by clicking on my username at the top of the page, which brings you to a "settings" page where you can do that. However, I also found all my comments as "malahat" have been "disappeared". For example, try clicking on this link /////////// http://www.newrepublic.com/article/112456/george-w-bushs-secret-war-against-hamas ///////////////////// I had a comment between arnon and basman's (basman refers to it). It's gone. What used to read "show all 7 comments" now reads "show all 6 comments". I'd say unbelievable, but after this, nothing on this site now surprises me - and every surprise has been a nasty one. ”
- malahat
February 22, 2013 at 8:07pm
A minor correction: Newport News Shipbuilding and Dry-Dock is not a 'Navy' shipyard. That designation belongs to the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard just over the James river from Newport News. Newport News Shipbuilding is a private company, the largest private employer in Virginia in point of fact. (The Federal govt is the largest employer, full stop.) But I'll allow that this is a distinction without a difference inasmuch as it is something like 80 years since Newport News secured a private contract. Her one and only customer is the United States Navy.
- AaronW
February 24, 2013 at 12:39am
2/24/2013 7:20PM EST "...Lew testified during his confirmation hearing that the Republicans would not go along with new revenue in the portion of the deficit-reduction plan that became the sequester. Reinforcing Lew’s point, a senior White House official said Friday, “The sequester was an option we were forced to take because the Republicans would not do tax increases.” In fact, the final deal reached between Vice President Biden and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) in 2011 included an agreement that there would be no tax increases in the sequester in exchange for what the president was insisting on: an agreement that the nation’s debt ceiling would be increased for 18 months, so Obama would not have to go through another such negotiation in 2012, when he was running for reelection. So when the president asks that a substitute for the sequester include not just spending cuts but also new revenue, he is moving the goal posts. His call for a balanced approach is reasonable, and he makes a strong case that those in the top income brackets could and should pay more. But that was not the deal he made."///// http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/bob-woodward-obamas-sequester-deal-changer/2013/02/22/c0b65b5e-7ce1-11e2-9a75-dab0201670da_story.html ///////
- malahat
February 24, 2013 at 7:22pm
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2013/02/weird-philosophy-of-bob-woodward.html Jonathan Chait: The first part of Woodward’s claim — that Obama’s side came up with the sequestration idea — is very narrowly true, but it’s a meaningful point only if you ignore everything that happened before and after. The reason Obama came up with sequestration is that House Republicans had threatened a global economic crisis by refusing the raise the debt ceiling, so the two sides needed a way to get them to lift the debt ceiling. If a mugger demands your wallet, you say you left the wallet at home but offer your watch, it’s a wee bit unfair to describe the plan to give him a watch as “your idea.” Woodward’s second point — “moving the goalposts” — has been torn to shreds like a hunk of meat tossed into the lion cage. Brian Beutler points out that the law didn’t call for spending cuts to be put into place, it called for “deficit reduction.” David Corn adds that Boehner himself conceded the possibility, however remote, that sequestration could be replaced with some mix of higher revenue and lower spending. Dave Weigel points out that Woodward’s own book says the same thing. There’s nothing left at all to the point Woodward is trying to argue here.
- zardoz67
February 25, 2013 at 5:47pm
9:26 EST 2/25/2013////Zardoz, Thanks for the link. New York magazine's gain is TNR's loss - it's what Chait would have written (and what I would have enjoyed reading) in the Old New Republic.
- malahat
February 25, 2013 at 9:28pm
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@MALAHAT, If Obama is 'moving the goal posts,' all I can say is it's about damn time. All's fair at love, war and fucking up the GOP.
- AaronW
February 24, 2013 at 7:41pm
Aaron, fair 'nuff, but I'm not sure helpful it is in reducing the dysfunctionality of Congress.
- malahat
February 25, 2013 at 11:40am
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