WORLD APRIL 5, 2011
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Near Brega, Libya—Somewhere on the road between the cities of Ajdabiya and Brega, amid the wreckage of charred tanks destroyed by Western airstrikes, the Libyan rebels prepare their next advance. Armed with anti-tank missiles and rocket launchers, they look like a fierce bunch. But their panoply of Russian weapons, pilfered from the country’s military bases, paints a deceiving portrait of an advancing army. These undisciplined fighters do not even know how to properly clean their machine guns.
The rebels have been fighting the forces of Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi since a revolution erupted in the eastern part of the country on February 17. For the past five weeks, the two sides have been playing a game of hot potato, exchanging the towns of Ras Lanuf, Brega, and Ajdabiya. Last Friday, I accompanied them on another attempt to reconquer lost territory.
Although Qaddafi’s army was humiliated in its last war with neighboring Chad, 24 years ago, and its elite forces are busy protecting the capital of Tripoli, it is not hard to understand why the rebels cannot advance. Rear units often fire on their own retreating forces, because they do not know how to aim their weapons correctly. They have not figured out how to create effective supply lines, abandoning vehicles at the front when they run out of gas.
Many of the rebels have yet to pass Fighting 101. Some with sophisticated weapons do not know how to use the firing mechanism, shooting countless rocket rounds and squandering scarce ammunition.
Lack of training is not the rebels’ only problem. They are undisciplined. Every car is its own platoon and every rebel is his own commanding officer. They advance during the day only to retreat at night, relinquishing the precious gains they have made. When one fighter prevented a comrade from advancing to the frontlines, a skirmish broke out between the two. Others joined in, and the scene soon looked like a pro wrestling brawl.
To alleviate confusion at the front, a newly created Libyan National Army, composed of defecting military units, has sought to impose a modicum of order. (Little is known about this army—the first that journalists heard about it was from rebels when we arrived at the front.) Outside of Brega, rebels read a statement by Colonel Ahmad Arhuma Bilkhair stating that “[f]ighters are only permitted to advance if they are incorporated into units,” and that “there should be geographical gaps between advancing units at the front and rebels in the rear in order to prevent exchange of fire between our forces.”
Few of the rebels, however, are willing to heed the colonel’s pleas for order. When a senior general who recently defected visited the front, they rushed his SUV. Fighters shot countless rounds from their arsenal to celebrate the arrival of Abdul Fatah Younis, a former interior minister who defected during the early days of the revolution. They burned a military uniform and stomped on it, shouting, “Oh Qaddafi be patient, be patient. Your grave is being dug in Benghazi.”
Later in the day, as fighters were lingering around their Toyota Hilux pickup trucks, I spoke with a man who appeared to be a soldier. Dressed in dark olive fatigues, Muhammad Al Fituni was chatting with a group of rebels. I asked him how effective his Russian-made Dushka anti-aircraft gun was at targeting infantry and vehicles. “Oh, I don’t really know much about that. I am a petrochemical engineer, but since the oil installations are closed, I came to the front to join the rebels,” he said.
With the rebels in disarray, their chances of advancing on Tripoli and overthrowing the regime are slim. Nevertheless, they believe that all they need to topple Qaddafi is sophisticated weaponry and longer-range rockets. But a former British commando who has spent the last month at the front disagrees. “You cannot just give a guy a rifle and make him a soldier. You need to train these guys,” says the man, who now works as a security specialist for a Western TV network. But such training would take months, and without it, the rebels are heading toward a stalemate with Qaddafi’s forces.
Barak Barfi is a research fellow with the New America Foundation.
Follow @tnr on Twitter.
15 comments
In order to properly protect civilians we should be taking out every Q-loyalist heavy weapon in the country that we can clearly identify. We also need to be prepared to take out rebel heavy weapons if they are turned on civilians going forward. After the collapse of communism, reconstructing civil society has been a difficult problem, often catastrophically so. The people we refer to as "The Rebels" in Libya have been similarly cut off from the norms and institutions we take for granted for decades. This is going to be a work in progress for a long time yet. I think the UNSC needs to take the long view and encourage the Euros to demonstrate that they learned something from Bosnia.
- Robert Powell
April 5, 2011 at 9:38am
RP, it's worse than I thought. These guys have no chance, even with the best air force in the world. Partition, anyone?
- butchie b
April 5, 2011 at 10:06am
What do expect? They waste their ammunition toward the sky! Then they attack as if the were an army confronting another army with no direction instead of conducting a guerrilla warfare as would anyone with half a brain do in their condition. The West is helping them in spite of a great suspicion that many of these fighters are pro- Al Qaeda back from Afghanistan. The West leadership is stupid enough to get involved between Arabs fighting other Arabs knowing full well that each side has something in common: Hatred of the US and Israel. In a year everybody will know that I am right. The Islamic Brotherhood will have the power in Egypt, Jordan and maybe in Libya too if Al Qaeda doesn't get there first. The sad part is the ignorance of Arab history, society, historical traditions doesn't faze out US rulers from getting involved in something not concerning them. As for "preventing slaughter" do they have evidence that "The revolutionaries" they are helping will not go into a frenzy of mass slaughter? Then they will have to look in the mirror and maybe if they have any morality will get disgusted by what they look at.
- Poupic
April 5, 2011 at 10:30am
Missed you RP. I remain hopeful that "The Rebels" have now figured out that they need to secure Brega, and then Ras Lanauf, and then stop their advance while more nations recognize the leadership council in Benghazi, as Italy and I believe Kuwait have now done. Once they control the most important water and oil infrastructure, and have more diplomatic recognition, they are in a position of economic power that can change the dynamic. It appears that Turkey has shifted NATO's focus to humanitarian relief (and some close-in military intervention) for Misrata, where Qaddhafi's forces continue their seige-turkey-shoot. I would think "The Rebels" in the east have figured this out by today. Best way to negotiate a real ceasefire is to consolidate control of the oil and water.
- K2K
April 5, 2011 at 11:09am
poupic: The sad part is the ignorance of Arab history, society, historical traditions doesn't faze out US rulers from getting involved in something not concerning them. So I take it you are a fluent Arabic speaker with a Doctorate in Arab History and have lived for decades in the Middle east. Is any of what I asked remotely true? K2K, I am not sure if these people will stop at Bin Jawwad when and if they get that far, I can not even say I would blame them. Misurata is burning. One problem is that the oil fields are far to the south, special ops from Gadhafi forces can go to unsecured areas in the desert and blow up the pipeline. Essentially the East can sell the oil they have in storage in places like Tobruk, I am not sure how reliable drilling will be. Controlling refineries and such are fine in themselves but not if you can't get to the oil. Of course the same is true for Gadhafi. And since recognition of the East will lead to their having access to frozen assets the waiting game is to their favor. I am starting to think the west wants a stalemate. One column of top of the line Western tanks (supplied with Libyan crews trained by Egypt) with close air support could roll on straight to Tripoli if it wanted. It seems the allies want Gadhafi driven out but a military stalemate otherwise which would lead to some kind of broadbased coalition government and at worst a defacto partition with an end of violence.
- blackton
April 5, 2011 at 12:35pm
hey blackton! I am working from a Stratfor map of Libya's oil fields, pipelines, and export terminals that The Economist published on February 24, 2011. It is not what I consider a detailed map, but it places most of the fields, etc, just east and south of Bin Jawad. The only oil export terminals west of Bin Jawad shown are Sirte (with no connecting pipeline!) and Tripoli. Brega is critical as it is linked to half of Libya's oil fields AND the Great Manmade Water Resource (different map), which is what anyone means when you hear the name Gamra. Anyway, Italy has to be starting to feel the strain, although, I admit I would rather have the Egyptians providing security to the eastern oil fields than the Italians :) and NOT because I worry about neo-colonialism :) most recent update, with a link to a more detailed WSJ article, which has NATO saying Misrata is their #1 priority, as it should be: http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Global-News/2011/0405/Qaddafi-s-troops-rebels-locked-in-standoff-around-Brega-April-5-Mideast-update until tomorrow...TNR.com has a serious compatibility problem with my PC
- K2K
April 5, 2011 at 1:27pm
K2K, Here is a pretty detailed map: http://sepmstrata.org/Libya-Hassan/Petroleum-History-Libya.html I really don't know how well they can secure all of these pipelines. However Brega is not essential for the east and Ras Lanuf and others won't be operational in any event. "With oil tankers now docking at the eastern oil ports of Tobruk and Marsa el Hariga, and the rebels desperate for an inflow of funds, as much to prove their viability as a government as to fund their opposition, Laurence Lee reports on the state of play on Libya's oil." This is from Al jazeera. Marsa el Hariga is near Tobruk and the largest oil field is also far to the east. The east does not need to use Brega, Ras Lanuf, etc. and can easily prevent Gadhafi from doing so since no oil will likely flow there. Time is not on Gadhafi's side, even if he could use them he has no one he can sell the oil too.
- blackton
April 5, 2011 at 1:52pm
by the way, per that map, there are oil fields in the west of Libya with a terminal near Tripoli at Az Zawiya, after what happened there who knows how operational anything is or who is going to buy crude from Gadhafi. Post Gadhafi though the fact that the west has oil makes an equitable split of oil revenues more likely
- blackton
April 5, 2011 at 2:00pm
Welcome back K2K. Consolidation is now Job 1, as you suggest. It would be good insurance to take and hold Brega and Ras Lanuf. The end game is an intriguing puzzle at the moment. It would seem Q's string has about run out, but that's what we thought about Saddam Hussein in 1991. I really think it's time for the grownups to step up--the French have enough infantry to occupy the entire country, and they don't need to go that far.
- Robert Powell
April 5, 2011 at 5:39pm
great maps blackton! I believe Brega is named, on these maps, al-Barygah, which is an oil export port, oil refinery, and, very important for Italy, liquified natural gas processing. and, an interesting article. Imagine the course of WW2 if those Italian geologists had come to different conclusions in the1930’s, "that Libya might have little in the way of commercial hydrocarbon accumulations. and coincidentally no oil discoveries were made under the Italian administration." RP: "the French have enough infantry to occupy the entire country", umm, are you serious? one of the maps at the URL from blackton shows a wild patchwork quilt of all the oil concessions as of 2009. I am not going thru the long list of companies to identify their country of origin in order to create a hypothetical multi-national ground force, so I stick to my original idea that the new government in Benghazi can hire enough Egypians to protect the oil fields and pipelines. I believe there are still maybe 500,000 Egytpian migrant workers still inside Libya. Serving as mercenaries in the 12th century did wonders for the Swiss economy... It seems impossible to force out a dictator through financial sanctions. I do believe this is a European/Arab show. The USA has it's hands full trying to deal with Yemen. It was actually snowing again today so I read Dexter Filkins on Yemen in The New Yorker and watched "Fair Game". CIA in Libya is most likely trying to keep Stingers out of the hands of Al-Qaeda. I imagine the Seven Sons are already going Ottoman with father Q, and each other. hope this thread stays alive for tomorrow.
- K2K
April 5, 2011 at 7:56pm
Brega is also the critical water processing/distribution node for Ganma.
- K2K
April 5, 2011 at 7:59pm
Only half-kidding K2K. It's clear that there will need to be some peacekeepers drawn from a real army at some point. The Egyptians seem disinterested to the point they're not even doing anything to protect or evacuate their own citizens. Not much else to choose from...
- Robert Powell
April 6, 2011 at 7:02am
RP: well, there is always China and India. Whatever Egypt is doing is going under-reported, for obvious reasons - what if Q stays? Just read WSJ update that has Libyan Younis (former Min Interior who now leads the opposition forces) saying if NATO does not resume air strikes in support of Brega, then NATO should stand down. Meanwhile, NATO says Misrata is their #1 priority. and they are being extra careful to avoid hitting any of Q's civilian shields. At best, Libya is a lesson for the Europeans as to how to fight with lawyers, as Israel has to :) In order to shake off my mood, am trying to NOT see the US 2012 election as a replay of what is now happening in Ivory Coast. It bothers me that Obama never mentions the importance of the peaceful transfer of power after an election... Tough week when the best news is the rescue of a dog after 15 days of floating on Japanese tsunami debris.
- K2K
April 6, 2011 at 7:32am
possibly the most unintended consequence of the NATO military actions in Libya will accrue to Israel, assuming human capacity for making direct comparisons, or even inferences :) "...BBC reported that NATO is having trouble staging airstrikes on Qaddafi's forces because they are hiding weaponry in civilian areas, where NATO will not strike out of concern about causing civilian casualties. Despite the setbacks, rebel forces are optimistic. They say that loss of territory is to be expected in a war like this one and does not constitute defeat. “There is no revolution without setbacks,” said Mustafa Gheriani, the rebel government’s spokesman, in an article by The Telegraph. “But the people will win. ... We are committed to fighting this tyrant, and either we will drive him out or he will rule a country with no people in it.” " [I include that last quote because it made me wonder if the U.S. could solve our housing crisis by relocating six million Libyans to Detroit, Buffalo, and other de-populated cities, assuming they could bring the $60Bil in seized assets with them.] http://www.csmonitor.com/World/terrorism-security/2011/0406/Libya-s-rebels-NATO-isn-t-doing-enough-for-us p.s. The Christian Science Monitor has the best daily coverage of Libya because they include quotes and links from other sources who also have reporters on the ground.
- K2K
April 6, 2011 at 9:51am
Loss of territory may not constitute defeat, but no army has won by losing territory, either. Nor will it with these guys. Partition may be our best bet, with peacekeepers of a non-Nato sort. Real ones this time, not like in Bosnia.
- butchie b
April 6, 2011 at 11:56am