Isaac Chotiner

Crowley has the McCain/O'Reilly transcript where the senator denies voting against Bush in 2000 here. And Mike notes that either McCain or Arianna Huffington is lying. According to Mickey Kaus' math, it is actually now 4 people who say they heard McCain make the comment. Even better than the transcript, however, is the video itself. Not only does McCain make a (Freudian?) slip, but he seems, er, unconvincing. The time counts down from around 7 minutes. The crucial section starts with about 1:10 remaining. You can wtach it here.  --Isaac Chotiner

Over at The Stump, Mike asks: If Hillary thinks white Americans won't elect a black president, is it so transgressive for her to say it out loud? Generally speaking, one should not get in trouble for stating what they believe to be the truth. But it's a matter of context. Clinton is saying this about the man who is going to be the Democratic nominee for President; these comments are not happening in a vaccum. And if she really cares about electing a Democrat in November, she probably should not be saying such things.  --Isaac Chotiner 

Race, Again

We'll see what happens tomorrow, but this may indeed become a big story (from a USA Today interview): Hillary Rodham Clinton vowed Wednesday to continue her quest for the Democratic nomination, arguing she would be the stronger nominee because she appeals to a wider coalition of voters — including whites who have not supported Barack Obama in recent contests. "I have a much broader base to build a winning coalition on," she said in an interview with USA TODAY. As evidence, Clinton cited an Associated Press article "that found how Sen.


If indeed the gas tax issue hurt Clinton in Indiana, there is something nice about the fact that pandering--whether over the gas tax in Indiana on Clinton's part, or over NAFTA in Ohio on Obama's part--has boomeranged. --Isaac Chotiner 


Chuck Todd just said that Obama aides believe they will come up only 10,000 votes short in Indiana when the vote counting is done. --Isaac Chotiner 

Give Us Hope!

Obama started out his speech with some canny remarks about unity in the Democratic Party. But now he's doing his populist schtick--which grows extremely tiresome after the twelfth "personal story" about "folks" he met on the campaign trail. It's almost enough to make one yearn for more bromides about hope and change. --Isaac Chotiner 

Obama In Nc

All the networks call NC for Obama right at the bottom of the hour. The exit poll has him winning by 13 points. Given previous primaries, we can probably expect that margin to narrow.  --Isaac Chotiner

Unfair Attacks

CNN just reported that 63% of Indiana voters thought Clinton attacked Obama unfairly, while 43% of voters thought Obama attacked Clinton unfairly. This margin of 20% is 3 points greater than the margin on the same question in Pennsylvania (which, remember, Clinton won by 9 points). --Isaac Chotiner 


Drudge is blasting the news that Obama has won easily in NC--or, rather, that exit polls show an easy win. Meanwhile, MSNBC and (to a lesser extent) FNC are acting as if the news is very good for Obama. In short, the two words that come to mind are Deja Vu. --Isaac Chotiner

I spent some time watching MSNBC and CNN today to try and get a sense of the media's expectations for tomorrow, and how those expectations could be affected by early exit polls. The basic consensus seems to be what Noam outlines here: I don't know precisely where that leaves us, but, qualitatively, I'd guess we're looking at a "solid, but not as big as it could have been" win for Hillary in Indiana, and a "closer-than-expected, but not super-close" win for Obama in North Carolina.