JONATHAN CHAIT OCTOBER 28, 2010
Write In Candidate 34
Joe Miller (R) 23
Scott McAdams (D) 29
Joe Miller, according to this poll, has a favorability rating of 26/68. He's imploding under the weight of -- scandals? Radical positions? A scary beard? I don't know.
What makes it all so dynamic is that the fluidity of the race itself has feedback effects. If Democrats think that Miller is a goner, do they switch from tactically supporting Murkowski to voting for McAdams? Does Murkowski have to veer left to prevent that? Would that, in turn, open her up to a Miller comeback? And if Murkowski wins, does she plan to return to the GOP fold and run as a Republican in 2016, or craft an independent identity? The media would be all over this race if it was actually taking place within the United States of America.