JONATHAN CHAIT OCTOBER 28, 2010
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Write In Candidate 34
Joe Miller (R) 23
Scott McAdams (D) 29
Joe Miller, according to this poll, has a favorability rating of 26/68. He's imploding under the weight of -- scandals? Radical positions? A scary beard? I don't know.
What makes it all so dynamic is that the fluidity of the race itself has feedback effects. If Democrats think that Miller is a goner, do they switch from tactically supporting Murkowski to voting for McAdams? Does Murkowski have to veer left to prevent that? Would that, in turn, open her up to a Miller comeback? And if Murkowski wins, does she plan to return to the GOP fold and run as a Republican in 2016, or craft an independent identity? The media would be all over this race if it was actually taking place within the United States of America.
5 comments
Well, Jonathan, you could take a look at the local media and find out pretty easily why Miller's campaign has been imploding -- all of the above (except the beard), plus general incompetence as a candidate. If he's been getting advice on how to handle his campaign from some professional, no politician ever should pay for advice from that person. Two months of dodging and stonewalling about his former work for local government in Fairbanks has finally ended with the release of certain documents from his personnel file, which make it crystal clear that he is not the kind of person who should hold any kind of public office. There is really no way to spin out of it when you were sneaking around the office at lunchtime, using every computer you could find that wasn't password-locked to vote in an online political poll at your own website, which violated multiple ethics policies and creeped out your co-workers. And then, when caught, lied about doing it, then backed up to a partial lie, and eventually fessed up only to blame it all on the coworkers who had not properly secured their computers from him. Plus the fact that he is a loony extremist, has hypocritically gamed the system on government assistance, and displays the maturity of a 5 year old does not help his cause except with the hard-right partisans.
- JEFF FREY
October 28, 2010 at 3:29pm
This is a fascinating race, though my money is on Lisa Murkowki. I read somewhere this morning a snippet quoting Murkowski as saying that she will remain a Republican if she wins.
- liberal reformer
October 28, 2010 at 3:46pm
Dear TNR....your website is still experiencing problems with Internet Explorer. It closes the website every 30 seconds or so and has done so since Meebo first appeared on the site. Yours is theonly website I visit that has this problem. I have installed 3 Microsoft updates since the problem began, none of which has corrected the problem. The Chait and Cohn blogs seem to be the most affected. Please fix this issue ASAP or I may have to drop my subscription. Hopefully, I can get this message off before it closes again.
- desertdog
October 28, 2010 at 4:01pm
download Firefox. Less of a chance for a virus too
- RedState
October 28, 2010 at 5:35pm
Lisa has made it clear that she remains a Republican, she is just a write-in Republican candidate. There's no ambiguity about what she will do if elected. If I am sure that Miller's numbers are down into the 20%s, then I (and many other Democrats) can vote for who we want, instead of voting tactically. If Miller is going to be at 30% or possibly higher, then we must vote tactically for whichever of Murkowski/McAdams we think the most other people are voting for.
- JEFF FREY
October 28, 2010 at 8:31pm