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Go Home Romney Death Watch Reconsidered

JONATHAN CHAIT JUNE 24, 2011

Romney Death Watch Reconsidered

BY JONATHAN CHAIT

My constant premonitions about the death of the Mitt Romney presidential campaign have yet to come true, so perhaps now  -- given Nate Silver's handicapping of the GOP field -- is a good time to revisit my analysis. It's certainly true that the last month has been berry, berry good to Mitt Romney. The candidate best positioned to disqualify him ideologically while still garnering establishment support, Tim Pawlenty, bombed his introduction to the party electorate in the Republican debate. Better still, Michelle Bachmann has shot up in the polls, setting up exactly the showdown Romney desires. Huge chunks of the party establishment oppose Romney, but many of them might support him if the alternative is a politically toxic rival like Bachmann.

But the fundamentals have not changed very much. To wit: There is a powerful case to be made against Romney, which will disqualify him in the eyes of most Republicans. There are numerous, well-funded groups ready to make that case. They have not made the case yet, nor have any of the opposing candidates really begun to press it. I have a hard time understanding how Romney survives that process.

Still, the case for the death of the Romney campaign does require some kind of reasonable opposition to emerge. I think it will. Given the failure of that to happen thus far, and Romney's resulting rise in the polls, I am upgrading his condition to mostly dead.

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13 comments

I think Romney will be the nominee. The only question is the VP. And I imagine it'll be Christie. Moreover, I think Romney/Christie represents a real threat to Obama/Biden.

- hkaye

June 24, 2011 at 6:30am

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"Death" watch Jon - you keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

- Tristan

June 24, 2011 at 7:19am

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I wonder, should Romney somehow survive to become the Republican nominee, is a potent Tea Party, Libertarian or independent conservative candidate likely to emerge and possibly spoil the Republicans' chances?

- aduncanson

June 24, 2011 at 9:50am

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You mean like Ross Perot did on Bush-I's re-election? Allowing Clinton to win? So this time, a "third party" Tea-Party candidate would suck the 10% lunatic vote away from Romney, allowing Obama (and hopefully more Democrats in the House and Senate) to win? As lunatic as the Tea-Party is, that's a very great possibility. I don't suppose Mitt Romney would be willing, if thrown under the bus in favor of a Tea-Party candidate, to run as an independent himself? That would be interesting.

- AllanL5

June 24, 2011 at 10:04am

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JONATHAN CHAIT IS NOTHING BUT A FLIP FLOPPER!

- Konstantin

June 24, 2011 at 10:16am

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I doubt there will be a third party tea party group. The TP is simply the GOP's base. It is a lot of nutcases who think they are revolutionaries by supporting capital gains tax cuts.

- MikeB.

June 24, 2011 at 10:19am

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JC, Many of us have been saying for weeks now that your Romney death watch doesn't fly. You hit on the point at the end why Romney is most likely the nominee and is far more important than his liabilities: No credible opposition! I am reminded of the story of the members of Congress who came to Lincoln to tell him to replace General McClellean. When Lincoln asked them who replace him with they said, "Anybody!" Lincoln replied, "Well anybody might work for you. But I need SOMEBODY."

- MikeB.

June 24, 2011 at 10:22am

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Before we hand the Mittster the nomination, let's just hold our horses and see if Patakimania doesn't spread across our fair land like a boring, monotone wildfire.

- W_Bombay

June 24, 2011 at 10:44am

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Mitt Romney isn't dead at all. But also the only question is not who will get the VP nod, it is who will win the top spot.

- liberalref

June 24, 2011 at 12:08pm

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I would expect that Romney, if nominated, would have to go with an extreme conservative, like Bachman or even Palin, as VP (and that he is unprincipled enough to do that.) The really terrifying prospect is that that might be a successful strategy.

- aduncanson

June 24, 2011 at 12:21pm

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Jonathan, the amount of crow you'll need to eat when Romney wins the nomination gets larger and larger :-) As for VP ... I know Christie is considered a Republican darling, but Christie doesn't get Romney anything he doesn't already have. My money is on Rubio or Bachmann. Nothing like demographic pandering. Last cycle it was women, this time it will be Hispanics or Evangelicals, it just depends on whom Romney needs more.

- NR409654

June 24, 2011 at 12:49pm

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I'll defend Chait here. I also still think Romney loses. Just because one candidate (Pawlenty) blinked in one extremely early debate doesn't mean that he is going to skate by. But perhaps Romney won't ever really be "dead." He'll just be "walking dead." Maybe these posts should be called "Romney Zombie Watch"?

- polcereal

June 24, 2011 at 1:06pm

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While I love clip from The Princess Bride is great, I would've gone with the "I'm not dead yet" from Monty Python.

- Clareita

June 24, 2011 at 6:10pm

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