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Go Home Health Care Cassandra Update

JONATHAN CHAIT MARCH 20, 2010

Health Care Cassandra Update

Okay, I've finally found somebody more optimistic than me. After weeks of being more optimistic, Nate Silver has shot past me:

You'd have to give me 10-1 to bet against health care now. Even if something goes wrong, Ds may have an out by cutting deal w/Stupak.

Ten to one? I agree that the outlook appear solid and the democrats appear to have some options -- deal with Stupak, go around Stupak, maybe do something on abortion that can satisfy most of his bloc. But each of those approaches also carries some risk of going wrong. Indeed, I tale seriously the risk of abortion blowing up the bill, because there are people in the Democratic caucus who care way, way more about abortion than health care, and would rather abandon reform than permit a slight increase or reduction in the convenience of abortion for some women. David Dayen reports on some wrangling here.

I believe this will probably (around 75%) get resolved. But I see the chance of some kind of blowup as very real.

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- A mythic scene from The West Wing: Josh: Forgive my bluntness, and I say this with all due respect, Congressman, but vote yes, or you're not even going to be on the ballot two years from now. Katzenmoyer: How do you figure? Josh: You're going to lose in the primary. Katzenmoyer: There's no Democrat running against me. Josh: Sure there is. Katzenmoyer: Who? Josh: Whomever we pick. Katzenmoyer: You're bluffing. Josh: Okay. Katzenmoyer: I'm in your own party! Josh: Doesn't seem to be doing us much good now, does it? Katzenmoyer: Against an incumbent Democrat. You'll go to the press and endorse a challenger? Josh: No sir. We're going to do it in person. See, you won with fifty-two percent, but the President took your district with fifty-nine. And I think it's high time we come back and say thanks. Do you have any idea how much noise Air Force One makes when it lands in Eau Claire, Wisconsin? We're going to have a party, Congressman. You should come, it's gonna be great. And when the watermelon's done, right in town square, right in the band gazebo... You guys got a band gazebo? Katzenmoyer: Josh... Josh: Doesn't matter, we'll build one. Right in the band gazebo, that's where the President is going to drape his arm around the shoulder of some assistant DA we like. And you should have your camera with you. You should get a picture of that. 'Cause that's gonna be the moment you're finished in Democratic politics. President Bartlet's a good man. He's got a good heart. He doesn't hold a grudge. That's what he pays me for.

- michael

March 20, 2010 at 10:52am

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Yeah, the abortion fight here is ridiculous. The Nelson compromise was so close to the Stupak language there is almost no functional difference, and yet there seem to be a disturbing number of representatives who will vote for one and not the other.

- WillPastor

March 20, 2010 at 11:24am

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With the recent changes, I think it will be hard for the House Members to understand the effects of those changes in their upcoming elections. Applying the Medicare Payroll Tax to unearned income will give the Republicans a great talking point about taxes come November. Whether this is a 1.45% or 2.9% increase, it will be unavoidable, and will add to voer frustration. Why sneak something like this into Health Care Reform? And you are never free of this tax. And if the goal is good health insurance for all, why tax health insurance programs that cover more and are considered good. And if the tax is so great, why delay implementation to 2018? The reason the Democrats want to tax Cadillac health care plans is that they are trying to pass a Public Option and want to force everyone into a Government Run program. So essentially if you don't have health insurance the Government will force you to buy it, if you have a good program the Government will tax you. Simple talking point for Sunday Morning. All Animals must have the Health Insurance we are selling. No less, no more. Perhaps the Democrats pick up Stupak with the promise to apply the Hyde Ammendment in the fall. But at the last minute without allowing Stupak onto the Sunday Morning shows will look a little funny, but at least they have him on board. I know I would not vote on something like this on a Sunday without having polled it extensively. We'll see.

- CRS9TNR

March 20, 2010 at 2:52pm

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