Jonathan Chait

Health Care Cassandra Update

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Okay, I've finally found somebody more optimistic than me. After weeks of being more optimistic, Nate Silver has shot past me:

You'd have to give me 10-1 to bet against health care now. Even if something goes wrong, Ds may have an out by cutting deal w/Stupak.

Ten to one? I agree that the outlook appear solid and the democrats appear to have some options -- deal with Stupak, go around Stupak, maybe do something on abortion that can satisfy most of his bloc. But each of those approaches also carries some risk of going wrong. Indeed, I tale seriously the risk of abortion blowing up the bill, because there are people in the Democratic caucus who care way, way more about abortion than health care, and would rather abandon reform than permit a slight increase or reduction in the convenience of abortion for some women. David Dayen reports on some wrangling here.

I believe this will probably (around 75%) get resolved. But I see the chance of some kind of blowup as very real.

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