JONATHAN CHAIT MARCH 18, 2010
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MSNBC's First Read reports, "We’re told that the White House and House Dem leaders are fewer than five votes away from 216." I have always thought that the key is to get within four or five votes. Once you're there, you're very likely to win. Why? Because then the White House and Democratic leaders can concentrate all their attention on a few holdouts. And they can make an irresistible argument: If you don't vote for this bill, you will be responsible for the political and moral disaster that ensues. I just don't think anybody is willing to be the person who kills health care reform. They may hold back, they may want to see if the bill is going to die anyway, and they may want somebody else to go first. But when the finish line is in sight, they won't say no.
Now, to be sure, you still have the problem of which member has to jump first. No doubt there are several who do not want the bill to be defeated but would prefer to vote no. They might be playing chicken with their colleagues. But having more potential votes than you need is not a bad problem to have.
Peeling back a little bit, things have gone well the last few weeks. Public opinion has trended in a favorable direction. President Obama has engaged. The CBO score looks good. Democrats seem to understand that they're all sunk if the bill fails.
I think this is going to happen unless something goes wrong. Of course, something could go wrong. Anyway, having held steady at around 60% for a couple months, I'm now up to 75%.
6 comments
I think that your increasing optimism in warranted, Jonathan. I would even go out on a limb and say that I think that the chances hover around 85 percent for passage. President Obama is engaged and he apparently has flipped Dennis "The Menace" Kucinich's vote and surely he has flipped more votes than just this one. Incidentally, I wanted to comment on your fine dismemberment of Juan Cole, whom I never have liked but when I clicked on the relevant place it took me to the "Post A Comment" page, just as it does when I am not logged in. On this thread, I am able to comment. What happened, did Juan Cole manage to hack TNR Online? I suppose not, though. If he were the culprit, your post would have been obliterated, along with the ability to comment. The Juan Coles of the world hate it when their views are mangled beyond recognition but often they don't mind mangling the views of their opponents. Cole's characterization of Jeffrey Goldberg's Middle Eastern Weltanschaaung is preposterous, I have read Goldberg at some length and he is far from an intransigent Likudnik. I loathe the fact that Cole supports the Palestinian suicide bombers. Oh, wait a minute, I guess he never actually said that. But you know how we emotional types are.
- liberal reformer
March 18, 2010 at 1:21pm
I second libref on the Cole piece, and further beg that you copyedit it and repost. The thing is riddled with embarrassing typos; the thoughts presented deserve better execution.
- rhubarbs
March 18, 2010 at 1:54pm
Thank you for your comment, rhubarbs.
- liberal reformer
March 18, 2010 at 2:37pm
Now that the typo issue has been raised, I'll pile on. I've been trying to be polite, waiting for the other fellow to take on the unpleasant duty of telling our friend that his breath stinks. Yes, it stinks. The typo rate is way too high for a professional blog. I haven't done the math, but it's not unusual to read a Chait post with five boo-boos in it. I personally don't care that much. But, as rhubes says, the content deserves better. The content is so often perfect, precise, and devastatingly sharp. I hate to see it lose any of its effectiveness due to typos. You don't want to give a snarky critic any opportunity to cut and paste your stuff and throw in a snotty "sic" after it!
- jhildner
March 18, 2010 at 3:09pm
I second jhildner and rhubarbs on the typos. There are too many of them. Can't someone there proofread the copy after you type it, Jonathan? Your writing is too good to be marred by so many typos. It is very easy to overlook mistakes, as I know from experience. Someone else should vet the thread before it is posted.
- liberal reformer
March 18, 2010 at 3:55pm
Agree with all above -- it may be online only but it's damaging the reputation of TNR as a journal that takes care of its prose.
- ironyroad
March 18, 2010 at 4:04pm