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Go Home Bayh Hearts Hillary, Cont'd

THE PLANK SEPTEMBER 25, 2007

Bayh Hearts Hillary, Cont'd

BY TNR STAFF AND TNR STAFF

Yes, Evan Bayh may be the milquetoastiest guy in the Senate, but I share Noam's thinking about Bayh's potential to be Hillary's (admittedly not electrifying) No. 2. And I think there's no question that the Indiana Senator is jockeying (oh-so-politely, of course) for the slot.

Granted, I'm primed to think of Bayh as a serious No. 2 contender since, when I was reporting on his flirtation with a presidential run for this piece last year, the overwhelming cw was that he was too bland for the top spot but was flat-out perfect for VP.

More specifically, I've wondered if something was up between Bayh and Hillary since December, when Bayh weirdly announced that he would not run for president--just 11 days after the Dec. 5 launch of his presidential exploratory committee. Four weeks after bowing out, he and Hillary and some nobody congressman from New York headed out on a cozy three-day CoDel to Iraq and Afghanistan. (Also immediately afterward, Bayh's chief fund-raising goddess, Nancy Jacobson, joined her hubby Mark Penn over at Team Hillary. Oh, imagine the pillow talk.) In their post-trip press briefing, as I noted at the time, Bayh and Hillary looked awfully adorable together (politically speaking, of course). Certainly, Hill would never have the problem of Bayh upstaging her.

None of which means anything. I'm just saying...

--Michelle Cottle

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9 comments

Dodd has crossed hillary a couple of times lately, so I doubt he'll be the VP pick. In fact, she may just firebomb the entire state of Connecticut. Every since Gov. Tim Kaine endorsed Obama, I've been running for cover every time I hear a loud noise. These people play dirty.

- virginiacentrist

September 25, 2007 at 10:48am

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...apart from not upstaging Hillary? He's from Indiana, which has been a reliably red state in recent elections and will probably remain so even if Bayh is on the ticket. And even if I'm wrong and Indiana flips to the Dems, big deal, it doesn't have near the electoral clout of Ohio or Florida or the other must-win states from 2000 and 2004. Does anyone seriously believe that Bayh's being on the ticket will have a regional effect and galvanize the entire midwest into voting for Hillary? I seem to recall that Edwards didn't bring NC into the Dem column in 2004 and Al Gore couldn't even win his own state of TN in 2000. If Hillary is considering picking Bayh primarily because she wants a milquetoast standing next to her on the platform, then that reveals an awful lot about her insecurities.

- basile

September 25, 2007 at 12:03pm

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IMHO. Although he was a successful, popular governor for eight years, he is a Senator now and has the voting record to match. In addition, most of the punditocracy stories I've seen since the Bayh endorsement seriously underestimate the essential Republican-ness of Indiana. True, Dems gained three House seats in 2006, but the state hasn't gone blue since the 1964 LBJ landslide. Politically, Indiana is much more a part of the red, agricultural Midwest than the purple-and-blue Rust Belt. No way Clinton/Bayh wins Indiana, although Bayh at the top of the ticket could've done the trick. Just look at Edwards in NC in 2004. People don't vote for Vice President; even a running mate as popular as Bayh can't turn a solidly Republican state Democratic in a presidential election. Jim Webb, Wes Clark, or Tim Kaine would all be better running mates for HRC.

- armadorsky

September 25, 2007 at 12:44pm

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People have a fundamental misunderstanding of the VP spot. They throw around all of these states like a VP is going to carry - and it's nonsense. It's ridiculous. I hear people make idiotic statements about Wes Clark carrying Arkansas (or the surrounding states!!!). The cannot carry states in this modern age. People vote for the top of the ticket. A VP can move about 2-3% of a state's voters...nothing more, in my opinion. That means they're only useful in swing states, and that's why the GOP may pick Pawlenty this year (though Minnesota is polling at like +12 for the dems at this point). So...if you don't pick VPs based on states, why do you pick a VP. You pick a VP to shore up doubts about your candidacy or your party in general or to generate a week or two of positive buzz to your candidacy. For example, Gore picked Lieberman, the moral crusader, in an effort to distance himself (morally) from Bill Clinton. He also created a nice 3-4 day buzz of positive spin RE: picking the first Jewish ticket mate. He did not pick Lieberman to win CT...perhaps, if Gore was smarter, he would have picked a liberal crusader as his ticketmate in order to shore up his base. Bush picked Cheney, a lifelong DC government hack and solid conservative, to compensate for his lack of experience...not to carry Wyoming. Can we please stop this nonsense about people carrying states? There are very few potential VP nominees out there who could alter the outcome significantly in their home state.

- virginiacentrist

September 25, 2007 at 2:55pm

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riddled with typos, as usual: "They throw around all of these states like a VP is going to carry" = "They throw around all of these states like a VP is going to carry THEM" and "The cannot carry states in this modern age." = "THEY cannot carry states in this modern age." Anyway - my point is that people are not so wedded to their local dummy that they're going to mindlessly vote for him if he's down ticket from Hillary Rodham Clinton.

- virginiacentrist

September 25, 2007 at 2:57pm

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But if you're right, the question still needs to be asked: Why would HRC choose an empty suit like Bayh to be her #2? How does he "shore up doubts" about her candidacy? He's Wink Martindale with an Indiana accent.

- basile

September 25, 2007 at 4:09pm

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No I agree with you on Clark. I think he'd be the best VP pick to take a couple of points off of the GOP's national security advantage, where a female nominee would raise doubts. Bayh doesn't do anything except represent a nonoffensive white male with a reputation for sincerity and moderation. And maybe that's all she needs. Maybe we should look at how Bill Clinton picked his VP. He went with a southern male who was cautious and moderate and who would be a good team player. If Hillary uses that same formula, maybe she'll pick Evan Bayh.

- virginiacentrist

September 25, 2007 at 4:31pm

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- MJMCKAY

September 25, 2007 at 5:58pm

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I like Bayh a lot--he's smart, effective, and believes most of the same things I do. But vrgniacntrst is unmistakably correct--what's a VP really for these days? Surely not to carry Indiana. In a modern TV-centric campaign, you need Star Power. Who you gonna' call?

- Robert Powell

September 26, 2007 at 12:56pm

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