THE PLANK APRIL 10, 2008
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Bob Dole is the presidential candidate to whom John McCain is most frequently (and unflatteringly) compared. But Ed Kilgore, responding to this piece I wrote in the current print issue about some of McCainland's dysfunctions, makes a different comparison: McCain's like John Kerry. Ed writes:
[I]t's clear McCain's back-from-the-grave nomination victory will tend to
freeze the current campaign structure, leadership, strategy and message
into place even if they aren't necessarily right for the general
election. That, after all, is how John Kerry wound up going into the
2004 general election with a questionable campaign structure,
leadership, strategy and message. At about this stage four years ago, I
can remember some Kerry supporters muttering to each other things like:
"How can you convince a candidate his campaign is making potentially
fatal mistakes when he's just won the nomination after being left for
dead?" I wonder if any McCainiacs are muttering similar things to each
other today.
I think Ed makes a smart point. A related point I gleaned from my reporting is that after the campaign's summer '07 implosion, there weren't that many McCainiacs who thought their guy could possibly get the nomination, so they didn't spend much (or any) time thinking about how he should run in a general election. In a way, I think McCain's now a bit like Bill McKay, Robert Redford's character in The Candidate, who after being elected is famously left wondering, "What do we do now?"
--Jason Zengerle
9 comments
Wait, didn't McCain unveil a big plan a while back for having a decentralized campaign structure, with the regional campaigns operating with a fairly high degree of autonomy? Also, his messages more recently are clearly more centrist and farther from Bush than what they were in the primary (See, for example, his "Tolerance" web ad, or his recent foreign policy speech).
Those observations would seem to argue against the claim that his comeback win "will tend to freeze the current campaign structure, leadership, strategy and message into place even if they aren't necessarily right for the general election."
- AlanSP
April 10, 2008 at 12:21pm
When you talked about McCain's Kerry problem, I thought you were referring to how Kerry asked him to be his VP, and how close McCain was to taking it, and how that might affect him with the Republican base.
Personally, I think this "problem" makes him only stronger in the general. If Kerry considered him for his VP, how bad can he possibly be to Democrats?
McCain will run as a Conservative Democrat, a clone of Lieberman, differing from LIeberman only on Abortion.
- blackton
April 10, 2008 at 12:33pm
Also, Hillary Clinton's ongoing campaign is giving McCain ample time -- at least eight weeks, possibly more like sixteen to twenty -- to find an answer to the "what do we do now" question. That's a long time for a strategic pause, especially compared to the zero weeks that the Democratic nominee will get to make the transition from primary to general campaigning.
- rhubarbs
April 10, 2008 at 12:41pm
Alan- I THINK (could be wrong) the argument isn't about what they try to do. Kerry tried to appear more centrist/moderate as well. He just wasn't very effective at doing so.
- miceelf
April 10, 2008 at 12:46pm
McCain, to his credit, seems outside of all this. I don't see him windsurfing for votes. I don't see him doing anything for votes, which will garner him plenty of votes. But not enough.
He's steak, and sizzle will win, as usual.
- williamyard
April 10, 2008 at 1:25pm
And here I thought Jason would entertain us with more examples from the GOP's version of Mr. Flip-Flopper.
- singlespeed
April 10, 2008 at 1:48pm
Rhubarbs,
It would be a dazzling display of incompetence if the Obama campaign wasn't already internally planning their strategy against McCain, having the nomination all but locked up. They can't fully implement their strategy yet since Clinton is still in the race and it would look bad to ignore her, but you can bet they're getting set up. One thing the Obama campaign has been great at so far is planning ahead (e.g. their superior organization in the states following Super Tuesday). I expect the transition from primary campaigning to general campaigning to go pretty smoothly, even if it will happen later than I'd like.
- AlanSP
April 10, 2008 at 1:54pm
WilliamYard: McCain did not windsurf, but he went to Liberty University.
John "Who'sShi'aWhat's SunniBaghdadissafeDon'tknownothingabouteconomics" McCain ain't no steak. Rump roast, perhaps; and chopped liver after the election. Can't help it if George "seared leg of duck" Bush is a visible means of support.
- icarusr
April 10, 2008 at 3:16pm
By sheer coincidence, this film lover who's seen over 3,000 movies watched "The Candidate" yesterday for the first time, and, yes, that final scene and line was just so breathtakingly brilliant. Instead of ending on some kind of overwrought Oliver Stone-like scene, this was a masterpiece of understated wit.
- kevincollins
April 11, 2008 at 6:42pm