The New Republic

We didn't just enable this war, we more or less caused it.  We have been tromping around since the 1990s, blustering about how we are the "sole super power," expanding our "sphere of influence" in the area surrounding Russia, and at every opportunity ignoring both Russia's interests -- e.g. missile defenses in Eastern Europe -- and pretty much every opportunity to draw Russia into a global partnership as an equal and valued friend.  Now that we are weakened by our own illegal invasion of Iraq, and by our petro-dependency, while Russia is resurgent, it was pretty much inevitable that Russian imperialism would reassert itself and Russia would act to make clear that, in its neighborhood, there is no benefit to being a pal of the US because we are not in a position to do anything.

Just one more example of the purblind stupidity of our foreign policy and the deleterious effects of boasting about our power while dissipating it in front of everyone's eyes.

- roidubouloi

August 11, 2008 at 10:28am

Not a lot to disagree with in Holbrookes piece. I did find the quoting of the UN Charter and International Law on unilateral invasions breathtaking in it's hypocrisy but there you go. The rest of it is standard fare. Why the hero worship Barron?

A couple of quick points:

Russian troops are popular in in South Ossetia or Abkhazia because of the fear of ethnic cleansing that occured in the early 90's. Aprox 300,000 odd with some rather brutal actions by the Georgian troops. This action was fully backed by the west.

Saakashvilli has done f*ck all for these refugess apart from move them out of hostel's to make way for property development.

Saakashvilli is hardly an ally of choice. Mass demonstrations in November against corruption and claims of election fraud were crushed by his security forces. Taking on the common enenmy in South Ossetia would buy him time, or so he thought.

Saak has also being accused of mafia membership by his own defence minister.

Saak gambled that the pipeline and the presence of Nato advisers would keep Russia out of South Ossetia - a bad mistake. In this respect the pipeline and the military aid has puffed up the ego of local corrupt mafia men and has resulted in this action. The complete opposite of what was intended.

Georgia has an extraordinarly complex ethnic make up. This is not the Weekly Standard cartoon of plucky Georgia against Russian imperialism. In the background the push for a Nato encirclement of Russia and the "Theology" (as Beinart rightly calls it) of missile defence has helped create this conflict.

- The Ignorant Populist

August 11, 2008 at 11:01am

Is Holbrooke in the running to get a high-level place in Obama's White House?  Or will he just continue teaching at Brown while Richardson or something blunders around?

- GoodLiberal

August 11, 2008 at 11:41am

Iggy- the Ossetiand and Abkhazians both have legitmate grievances against Georiga, you are right.  But this is no longer Schevernadze's Georgia, nor is it the completely insane place when Gamsakhurdia was running around.   These regions are proving grounds for Russian power, much like Chechnya was.   They are a way to project.  I know you don't really believe Putin's heart is torn over their fate.

Look, Saak has been somewhat a disappointment to me.  I loved him when he came to power.  But not only does he have to deal with his insane ethnic hodegepodge, but he has a giant neighbor to the north who has never stopped believing Georgia is part of them, and who has constantly meddled in its affairs, and that of the Ukraine.  Georgia had to reclaim its breakaway regions so as not to give Moscow a luanching base for constant interference.   Saak misplayed his hand, perhaps still over-confident at how easily they retook Abjura.   But while you are correc tthat this isn't a Weekly Standard cartoon, it is also not a Nation "we're to blame for this" caricature either.  Russia and Georgia have history outside of us.  But if I had to choose between a flawed, struggling country that has at least been attempting democracy, and one that is regressing to bad old days, I would pick the former any time.  

- boneill

August 11, 2008 at 11:54am

"n this respect the pipeline and the military aid has puffed up the ego of local corrupt mafia men and has resulted in this action"

You're talking about the mafia men who dominate the _Russian_ state, right? Yes, it's all about the pipeline. For PutinMobutu and his fellow thieves, who are re-nationalizing the Russian energy industry as fast as they can, and whose main foreign policy goal now is obvious to anyone not obsessed with finding the fell hand of the Boosh Admin behind every sparrow that falls: Putin's using pipelines as a strategic weapon to make Germany into Russia's bitch. When that happens, he can set about making the Balts, Ukr Georgia, Poland into satellites again.

- teplukhin2you

August 11, 2008 at 11:57am

I'm not blaming the west or the US or Boosh for this Bone. (Only the most obsessive anti-Russian would claim the pipeline has anything to do with this. They're protecting Russian nationals and are a force for peace and prosperity. Only the most obsessive anti-Americans would claim oil has anything to do with Iraq. You're promoting democracy and peace.)

Look, I'll see your Russian mafia and raise you my Georgian one.

Why is NATO being pushed into these Russian sattelites? Apart from the democracy pipeline now.

I don't see the benefit, for me, for Europe, of extending NATO into these countries.

To be perfectly honest leaving them in a "grey area" sounds pretty attractive.

- The Ignorant Populist

August 11, 2008 at 12:16pm

Not if you're in that grey area, Iggy.  The problem is that most of the peoople in most of the countries in that neighborhood want to be Western (democracy plus prosperity minus corruption) rather than Russian (state sponsored oligarchy plus managed scarcity plus corruption).  That's too crude, admittedly, as corruption is a real problem in even places such as Bulgaria who are on a track to EU membership.

But it still maps out the issue:  there's a real cultural/political choice being made in countries like Georgia, and it involves finally getting out (or trying to) from under the heavy Russian thumb and operating with some real sovereignty in the world.  In many ways, the Georgians are going through a speeded-up version of the history of, say, the Baltic countries after WW2 until 1990.

But in the Cold War we didn't risk a direct confrontation with the Soviet, not even when the rebellion was crushed in Hungary in 1956.

- ironyroad

August 11, 2008 at 1:46pm

Sorry but the Georgian mafia don't control the Georgian state, as the Russian FSB/Mafiya do, and in any case, they're to the Russian _siloviki_ as a South Dakota pimp is to New York's Five Families. PutinMobutu is easily the richest man in the world, thanks to his half ownership in a trading company that dominates Russian energy exports (forgot its name, sorry, registered IIRC in Liechtenstein). His crew and their kids are looting the Russian state to the tune of billions every year. This is a gangster regime, or if you like, a sub-saharan african one. Its leaders are not Russian patriots; they're bullying thieves first and foremost who view international relations through the a primitive "don't f*** with me, Tony" frame.

Here's their latest acquisition, an $800m villa purchase near Monaco. They say the buyer's identity isn't known, but I'd bet my last ruble he's thick as thieves with Putin. Have fun: property.timesonline.co.uk/.../article4499716.ece

- teplukhin2you

August 11, 2008 at 1:56pm

Iggy --

"Russian troops are popular in in South Ossetia or Abkhazia because of the fear of ethnic cleansing that occured in the early 90's. Aprox 300,000 odd with some rather brutal actions by the Georgian troops. This action was fully backed by the west."

How quaintly selective an account. No mention of the ethnic cleansing that occurred after the two autonomous regions established their de-facto independence. Then it was hundreds of thousands of *Georgians* who were ethnically cleansed.

Reminder: before the violence first broke out, Georgians were the largest ethnic group in Abkhazia. Ethnic Abkhazians made up just 1/6th of the population. A case of self-determination this was not. It's Georgians that were the biggest victim of ethnic cleansing there. With of course full backing of Russia - a backing far more material than the West ever gave the Georgians; the Abkhazian state-let depends entirely on Russian arms and funding.

- jobeek2

August 11, 2008 at 2:40pm

What Boneill and Irony said. Iggy, to be honest I find your argument that "leaving them in a 'grey area' sounds pretty attractive" pretty heartless. Yes, leave them there at the whim of Russia. Safer for us -- never mind how they feel about it. Isn't that the worst of old-time Realpolitik?

An excellent mailinglist on Baltic issues, run by Balts, had this sig line: "Never again about us without us". Never again should Germany, Russia and America get to assign whose zone of influence the Balts would be assigned to. They have a voice. "Why is NATO being pushed into these Russian sattelites?," you ask? Well, depending on which country you're talking about (Ukraine is admittedly fairly complicated with its internal division), if for no other reason because some of them countries really *want* to join NATO, and are asking to be accepted. Scepticism about the motivations of Western policy aside, would you tell them "no, sorry, dont want to offend Russia, look out for yourself"?

Even setting idealism and moralism aside, consider the strategical cost of that too. Over the past decade, the allure of being accepted into the EU and NATO (and basically, the whole concept of the West or Europe that they equated with it) has kept a range of countries in Eastern Europe, on and off, on a path of political and economic reform. There's been many bumps on the way, and some have come further than others, but step by step countries like the Baltic states, Bulgaria, Romania and Ukraine have transformed to better fit the Western standards of governance and economical policy. That is very benefitial for Western Europe too, strategically. Once you start rebuffing countries in that "grey area", whether Ukraine or Georgia for example, this aspirational motor for reform will collapse, and a sense of betrayal will take its place. They will opt for a path of wholly parochial or resentful nationalism, with all the added perils that brings, or simply collapse into a de facto Russian empire again. Is that really even to our tactical advantage?

In short, as soon as you have countries in the "grey zone" you mention, like the Baltic states earlier and Georgia now, actively seeking to join the EU, Nato etc, you have to make a choice between encouraging them or rebuffing them. Without speculating on why exactly Western leaders have made the choice they made, there's definitely both a moral and a pragmatical case for encouraging them. I wouldnt want to stand on the other side, and I dont think a liberal ever should.

- jobeek2

August 11, 2008 at 2:59pm

what jobeek said. Ukraine and Georgia want to join the west. It's a good club to belong to. Putin wants to close these nations off from that club and transform them into shambolic, compliant little bandit states like Lukashenko's Belarus.

All simple common sense observations that seem to have escaped Americans obsessed with this POTUS campaign. Another reason to bemoan tnr.com's slide into bloggerish cheerleading and myopia.

- teplukhin2you

August 11, 2008 at 3:40pm

Tep, perhaps Georgia.  Ukraine is not nearly so simple.  To pass along a friend's advice (she happens to be something of an expert on the region, being close to her PhD on the matter and having spent the past year in the Ukraine):

"I think the point exactly is that the situation is very complex, and both sides obviously are at fault. I don't know much about Georgia in particular, but the major lesson I took from my year in Ukraine is that it's a big mistake to view these issues in simplistic moral terms. Russia does many bad things, and it's getting worse. Georgia and Ukraine are anti-Russian for sure. But we've been too quick to assume that the logical corrolary is that GA/UK are good and we should therefore support them through thick and thin. Part of the whole problem in Ukraine is that half the population really does consider themselves Russian; the same situation caused the Ossetian mess in the first place. Furthermore, the Orange Revolution has many dark underbellies, the most prominent of which is the most vicious, racist anti-Semitism I've ever encountered, which Iushchenko and Co have used to unite a divided country. (This also plays into the anti-Russian rhetoric: thus the commonly heard formulation that the Bolsheviks were Jewish imperialists who attempted to eradicate the "Ukrainian nation" in the 1932-33 famine, only later to manipulate world opinion by constantly complaining about the trauma of "their Holocaust." I am not embellishing this; such things have been quite openly--though only in Ukrainian--by Orange politicians, which I think is part of the reason that the western media doesn't pick up on it. There have also been extensive purges of what few Jews are left in Ukraine in the form of mass political firings and accusations that they are unloyal to the Ukrainian state.) I would prefer that my taxes not support such regimes, not only on principle, but also because this rhetoric has created many new divisions in Ukraine and does nothing to promote "democratic political culture."

In short, I think the tragedy is not good, little countries being eaten by a big, bad country, but rather the fact that post-Soviet politicians--whether Russian, Georgian, or Uk--have not been able to escape from the disturbing (and self-defeating) rhetoric that they learned in Soviet times. (Iushchenko and Tymoshenko love denouncing "enemies of the nation" as much as Stalin.) And sadly, even the generation that came of age after communism is picking up on this and perpetuating it. The region will be a mess for years to come, colored revolutions aside!"

- Crock1701

August 11, 2008 at 3:55pm

Ukraine has its own bandits-- Yulia esp--and racism and anti-semitism are pretty much de rigueur across the old pale of settlement nations. Sure, the Russian minority's rights need to be protected. But as jobeek notes, the best way to encourage nations like Ukraine along the path of greater transparency in politics and greater tolerance in civic life is to offer them membership in the western club. Russia's influence is in the exact opposite direction, toward greater banditry and thuggery.

If "The West" still means anything, we need to remain true to the liberalizers and progressives in these nations. They're not starry-eyed idealists; they're many millions strong, and up against a vicious and brutal Russian bandit regime.

- teplukhin2you

August 11, 2008 at 4:06pm

www.newsweek.com/.../151970

From the above article in Newsweek.com:

"After surviving a bombing, David Tshimashvili, the commander of a tank military base in Tbilisi, said, "We thought Bush was our friend. We supported them in Iraq. Where is Bush? Will he come here now?" Tshimashvili remembered when thousands gathered in Tbilisi's Freedom Square in 2005 to hear the American president, who declared that the "sovereignty and territorial integrity of Georgia must be respected."

"Tshimashvili had his tanks evacuate the base two days ago, but was still on site when Russian bombs hit, injuring him in his arm, shoulder and chest. From Tbilisi Central University Hospital, where he is recovering, the commander said, "I still believe in Democratic values, but never again in America. We feel very disappointed that there is no real help from the U.S. and Europe.""

- cspencef

August 11, 2008 at 4:06pm

Look, I'm not cheerleading for the Russians, who I'm quite sure are as corrupt as Teplukhin points out. Neither am I saying that the Georgians shouldn't have their independence and freedom, which would of course include SO. What I am saying is this is a little bit more complex than we are being led to believe, with deep ethnic issues that can't be explained away by Putin's personal greed.

I also doubt that we would be discussing it if the pipeline, and European energy security, wasn't at stake.

If Georgia was a NATO member, it would be at war with Russia right now. I'm not sure we need to extend the trigger line that far and that deep into old Soviet territory. Maybe, that's heartless but there's a lot to be said for a buffer zone, and I certainly don't feel comfortable leaving European security in the hands of hot headed, weak, mafioso idiots like Saak.

- The Ignorant Populist

August 11, 2008 at 4:29pm

roidubouloi: said:

The U.S. has been "blustering about how we are the "sole super power." You've got it wrong. Dubya said the U.S. is the "soul" super power.

Did you forget that Georgie looked into Putin's eys, heart, soul or some metaphorical think and saw sweetness and light? But of course, his Dubya was shuffled through school without regard to his abject illteracy, he can neither read words nor, nor tea leaves, nor entrails, nor elan vitals.

However, Dubya can count the number of rails of cocaine on a mirror or table.

- tec619

August 11, 2008 at 4:36pm

I'm voting in favour of TNRTalkback resolution #137 sponsored by Telukhin, which is the best option I've seen: Cut the Russians in on missile defence, which is smoke n mirrors anyway, in exchange for an enlarged NATO.

They'll go for it; a little bit of imaginative diplomacy is required here, something the McCain camp is sorely lacking with it's insane lust for another Cold War. Where's that sick evil f*ck Kissinger when you need him?

- The Ignorant Populist

August 11, 2008 at 4:39pm

Wow! I was mistyping all over the place. A corrected version. . .

roidubouloi: said:

The U.S. has been "blustering about how we are the "sole super power." You've got it wrong. Dubya said the U.S. is the "soul" super power.

Did you forget that Georgie looked into Putin's eys, heart, soul, or some metaphorical thing and saw sweetness and light? But of course, Dubya was shuffled through school without regard to his abject illteracy.  Therefore, Bush can neither read words nor, nor tea leaves, nor entrails, nor elan vitals.

However, Dubya can count the number of rails of cocaine on a mirror or table.

- tec619

August 11, 2008 at 4:46pm

www.cacianalyst.org

Interesting article about Russia's moves in the other South Caucaus states.  It seems to be pulling Azerbijan into the fold at the same time it is squeezing Georgia.  Very smart of them.  They might not even need to destroy the pipeline if they have the rest of the Caspian states as friendlies.   And I don't think that the Georgian example- and our lack of any real response, or ability to respond- will move Azerbijan away from the Russian camp.

- boneill

August 11, 2008 at 5:03pm

Right, bone. The pipeline is useful infrastructure, and who ultimately benefits from it is still an open question. I think the real target is the Georgian government.

All the hand-wringing and moaning is worth shit. Ukraine has told the Black Sea Fleet, currently blockading the Abkazian coast, that it doesn't automatically get to re-anchor in its home port of Sebastopol. Poland is  collecting blood and sending volunteers.  Turkey will eventually weigh in, as will Azerbijan, Iran, and others. The issue is extraordinarily clear, and the weasel brigade can't dress this pig up. This wantonly aggressive Russian action cannot be allowed to stand.

The very worst position is the one taken here so far by Iggy and roi. This is an open-and-shut case of aggression. No sane person advocates launching missile strikes on Moscow, but to start making excuses for this Russian outrage on the fraudulent terms they put forward is reminiscent of 1938. Why should we care about the affairs of strange people in far away lands about which we know little? Let's just buy the standard excuse that the Russians are standing up for their persecuted minorities. As if Abkazia wasn't an invention of post-Soviet Red Army officers grabbing the casinos and hotels in the first place.

Shades of Sudetenland.

- Robert Powell

August 11, 2008 at 6:00pm