THE PLANK DECEMBER 10, 2009
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As someone who fell under the spell of declinism in the late 1980s – I wrote a book, Grand Illusion: Critics and Champions of the American Century, dedicated partly to the thesis -- I am reluctant to embrace the current version of the theory of American decline, with China playing the role that Japan and West Germany formerly played. On that score, I recommend a column, “Why China Won’t Rule the World,” by Minxin Pei, my former colleague at Carnegie, to whom I defer on these matters.
Minxin cites the fragility of China’s economic recovery, based on risky loans many of which will not be repaid, and on the creation of industrial overcapacity relative to domestic demand (which has not risen proportionately) and foreign demand (which remains stalled by the ongoing slump). Minxin also cites political unrest and the upcoming succession battle. The Chinese leadership, of course, is not blind to these problems. As Minxin writes, “One of the strangest things about the predictions of Chinese dominance is that they tend to impress everyone but the Chinese themselves.”
3 comments
China-U.S. isn't zero-sum. China's missteps do not directly and inversely assist the U.S., other than helping some Americans maintain a false sense of security. Aside from being one of the multinationals' favorite saloons, what does the U.S. have to offer, aside from our military? Our educational system is a mess, our labor costs are too high, our infrastructures are crumbling and vulnerable to attack, our entitlements are just starting to kick into high gear, our debt is soaring, our energy vulnerability is as bad as its ever been, and our economy depends on a level of consumption that we can't afford and that's anathema for the environment. We are damned if we do, damned if we don't, and damned if we try anything in between. In my view the common denominator is a lack of will, predicated by having it too easy, too long. We still ascribe to untold destructive myths; just today I read a commenter on another site state that "the USA won the Cold War." Nothing could be farther from the truth. Capitalism won the Cold War; communism lost. The U.S. was just another proxy, like Vietnam or Afghanistan. Now that it's won, capitalism doesn't need us anymore beyond our temp jobs as debt-ridden consumers. And the countries we supposedly defeated, China and Russia, are looking more powerful every day. You can quibble about China's reticence to engage in international currency discussions or Russia's corruption, but cash and oil talk; bullshit walks. To regain a national will to succeed and compete, the first thing we must do is think of ourselves as losers. Losers are resentful and hungry. They bear grudges they can't forget; they channel Machiavelli. Richard Nixon is our greatest recent example, the dark phoenix rising. For America to be great, we all must be little Richard Nixons. We don't have to be nice or play fair or any of that malarkey. We need to be ruthless. At one time we had the luxury of saying, "Oh, we're better than that." That time has passed. Besides, we've never been "better than that." No one ever has. They were just living in dreamland, swaddled by oceans on either side and warmed by cheap oil, that allowed that myth to float for awhile before sinking.
- williamyard
December 10, 2009 at 6:09pm
I hate to disagree with yard ... and, well, I don't. We shouldn't be complacent. But that assessment of the US is too pessimistic. To highlight this, I've bolded the complaints that apply just as much, if not more so, to China.
Regarding the unbolded items: China's labor costs are too low and their economy depends on an unsustainable level of exports. China will undoubtedly be a major play in the 21st century; perhaps THE major player. But it was never realistic to suppose that America would remain absolutely unparalleled forever. And I honestly don't know how you can say Russia is looking more powerful every day. It is looking more dangerous every day, like a weakened and thrashing animal.- ratnerstar
December 10, 2009 at 7:51pm
Ratty, sorry it took me so long to respond. Thursdays the new amateur bikini competition at Wicked Weasel is posted; I had to work that in. Priorities etc. I really shouldn't have put such emphasis on Russia and China because as I started out saying, it's really not about how America competes with others as much as it is how we get our own act together, or not. For all I know, Brazil, with its healthy debt load and apparently more astute energy profile, will be bigger competition than Russia.
- williamyard
December 10, 2009 at 10:13pm