THE SPINE DECEMBER 23, 2009
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I believe that the Iranian regime is trembling, trembling from fear of its own people. Not all of its people, of course. But those whose minds are on the future rather than those whose souls are in the past. That is a history-making majority whether the Basiji beat the crap out of demonstrators or not. Look at this dignified demonstration, a manifestation of courage and of hope.
Maybe it has somehow eluded me. But, after much prattling since his inauguration about the progressive strivings in the Muslim world, few and far between, did President Obama really neglect to stretch out his hands to the best and most truly liberal elements in Islam? I am afraid that this is so. One fact about our president: he is tenacious in clinging to the illusion of a nuclear deal with Tehran, even though Beijing has given every indication that it won't join in pressing for one--which means there won't be one. And I don't trust the Russians on this either. Do you?
Michael Ledeen, the very wise and controversial national security expert, sent me these reflections below on what is going in Qom right now. He is the author of two insightful and maybe even prophetic books on Iran: The Iranian Time Bomb and the recently issued Accomplice to Evil: Iran and the War Against the West. Laugh if you like. You won't laugh last.
The opposition Green Movement had been trying for days to get official permission for a demonstration, but it was denied. As a witty tweeter noted, Grand Ayatollah Montazeri took care of that by dying. The demonstrations in Qom are abundantly documented. Look at this video, for example; it is entitled to your careful attention.
We see several important things:
–first, the dimensions of the protest (enormous). There have been monster demonstrations against the regime for several months now, and they are not likely to stop;
–second, the discipline of the crowd. This is extremely rare, especially when you consider that Iran is now in the period of mourning, and passions are very high. Add to that the political dimension (Montazeri was a symbol of resistance to the regime), and the fact that there were regime provocateurs in the demonstration, trying to disrupt their disciplined chants. This is an organized movement, not a group of wild-eyed protestors;
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2 comments
But, after much prattling since his inauguration about the progressive strivings in the Muslim world, few and far between, did President Obama really neglect to stretch out his hands to the best and most truly liberal elements in Islam? Again, neo cons rail against the uselessness of Obama's speeches, but seem utterly convinced in the awesome power of their own words. Like Gorby upon hearing Reagans words just had to tear down the Berlin Wall. Just how was Obama supposed to stretch out his hands? The same way that McCain urged Bush and America to stand with Georgia, (are we all still Georgians?), we all know how that worked out. If I were an Iranian dissident I would loathe the neo-Cons because the neos seem to think it is all about them, and that the dissidents in Iran are Young Republicans following their wise leadership. I can't be sure, but I can almost guarantee that the Students in Iran give a rats ass about who John Bolton is, but if they did would surely hate him (since we would have already bombed them years ago, setting the dissident movement back a generation) It is scary how little neo cons understand the mindsets of other people in other countries. My belief is the US government should work as far behind the scenes as possible, the Iranians students are the ones risking their lives and are doing it for their own ends, not because some fat, rich, white Republican is urging them to, and we sure as hell don't need to provide direct evidence of US meddling in their affairs, which would only backfire. I think Obama has handled it about as well as he possibly can.
- blackton
December 23, 2009 at 4:38pm
"Demonstrations Are Forbidden In Iran. But The Grand Ayatollah Montazeri Took Care Of That By Dying." by Martin Peretz Dr. Marty Peretz notes that Dr. Michael Ledeen is "...very wise and controversial national security expert," which is absolutely true. How controversial? Dr. Ledeen writes, "Some of us who have long fought against the terrible regime in Tehran were fortunate to have received wise observations from Montazeri over the years,....." a.) 'Some of us:' Not you or me, but just "some of us" Translation: the elect elite analysts b.) 'who have long fought against the terrible regime in Tehran' Translation: 1.) Not the 'johnny come lately' POTUS; 2.) the mushy-headed liberal political faction in US politics; but the elite annointed defenders of democracy like me, Dr. Michael Ledeen, and my cronies at the American Enterprise Institute and of course, Dr. Peretz and mutual friend, Dr. Charles Kraithammer. It doesn't take a compromised national security analyst such as Dr. Michael Ledeen or the "non-practicing psychiatrist" turned journalist Dr. Charles Kraithammer to extoll the profound virtues of the Iranian peoples' determination to oppose and replace the theocratic, brutal, corrupt Iranian regime. What I draw from Dr. Peretz's article is that only ageing neoconservative national security experts, a few selected journalists and ideological foreign policy hard-liners can see or understand the dramitic events in Iranian. These Wise Men occupy the high ground and nearly everyone else have not been around long enough or are unreliable and possibly "unsound" antagonists of the Regime.
- LawrenceGulotta
December 23, 2009 at 4:40pm