OCTOBER 29, 2007
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Mickey Kaus raises what on its face is a nightmare scenario for Hillary: That either Obama or Edwards collapses and his supporters flock to the other candidate creating a unified anti-Hillary block which could total 40 percent or more. But this theory assumes that most Obama and Edwards supporters are in some way actively anti-Hillary, and that just doesn't seem to be the case. Today's new Hawkeye poll doesn't appear to have measured second-choice preferences, but this August Washington Post-ABC Iowa poll, back when the first-choice numbers weren't all that different, found that Obama, Edwards, and Clinton each to be the second choice of about a quarter of polled voters.
In addition, a Clinton aide tells me that large numbers of Obama and Edwards supporters specifically name Hillary as their second choice--enough to make the unified anti-Hillary scenario unlikely (although I haven't seen personally any fresh poll numbers to substantiate that obviously self-interested claim).
If people know of more good data on this question please let me know and I'll update or follow up.
--Michael CrowleyÂ
6 comments
I think people have reservations about Hillary that haven't been reflected in the limited data available -- and probably will not till we get close to actually voting. As the field thins out, we will see what really happens. Till then, I think it is reasonable to assume that Hillary will not gain as much as would either Obama or Edwards if one of them drops out. As an Edwards guy myself, i can tell you I would much rather see Obama than Hillary at the head of the ticket (rather see Biden than either of them).
- purcellneil
October 29, 2007 at 1:15pm
As an Obama guy, I would flock to Edwards if my guy dropped out.
- stgla
October 29, 2007 at 2:22pm
Agnostic on the above but am 100% opposed to the vile "sloppy s____" locution. Add that one to Pinker's list of TRUE obscenities
- teplukhin2you
October 29, 2007 at 2:45pm
I'm with purcellneil and stgla on this. I support both Edwards and Obama and would happily support either one that survives. If Hillary is nominated, I will vote for her with a clothespin over my nose.
- JackR
October 29, 2007 at 3:13pm
What so bad about sloppy seconds? It's just love, man....
Anyway, I like Obama (and Biden!), I guess, but I don't really have a problem with Hillary. I would prefer her over Edwards. In my heart of hearts, I might even prefer her over Obama. The woman has steel in her.
People moan about Hillary's negatives all the time, but I think they almost help her. Yes, there is a hard core contingent of people who hate her. But do you think those people are ever going to vote for any Democrat above dog catcher level? Meanwhile, the rest of the country has heard about how unlikeable she is, how liberal she is, etc. Every time she acts against type (admittedly, she does this more on the latter than the former) she wins converts. Obama, Thompson, etc. were oversold and have underdelivered. HRC is in the exact opposite position and that's her strength.
- ratnerstar
October 29, 2007 at 5:09pm
"a Clinton aide tells me" good lord what the hell is that? I gotta believe that Hillary hatred is alive and well among the Democrat supporters of Edwards or Obama. I won't even match JackR and his clothespin, I won't vote for Hillary unless rudy is against her, otherwise I will sit this one out. Hillary is likely to destroy the Democrats like Bush destroyed the Republicans. She will have zero honeymoon, and couldn't lead a thirsty horse to water to drink.
Ratty, did you ever stop to think the reason she has steel in her is because she is a soulless machine who's only programming is ambition? I got no beef with her in the Senate, I hope she stays there for years, but not as President.
- blackton
October 29, 2007 at 7:53pm