Polling

Don't Put Much Stock in That Poll Calling Obama the Worst President
Bush was the "worst," too
July 02, 2014

Quinnipiac ran an identical poll in 2006. Then, Americans chose George W. Bush as the worst modern-day president.

Why Didn't the Data Geeks Predict Eric Cantor's Defeat?
June 10, 2014

Nate Silver and his ilk were as surprised by the Tea Party upset as the rest of us.

538 Is All Wrong About My Turnout Projections
Conventional outlets don't get to look at voter files. I do.
May 08, 2014

Conventional outlets don't get to look at voter files. I do.

How To Read PPP's Polls
November 08, 2013

I’ve written at length about PPP’s troubling methodological choices. The firm failed to disclose important methodological decisions, offered inconsistent or baffling explanations, and continues to employ an unscientific and inconsistent approach.

Gerrymandering Still Isn't to Blame for the Shutdown
October 14, 2013

Gerrymandering is ugly. But you can't blame it for all Republican lunacy.

PPP's Results Don't Excuse Its Bad Methodology
September 19, 2013

Last week, I wrote a long piece about PPP’s troubling methodological choices. Some people assumed it was a continuation of a fight the previous day between Nate Silver and PPP, but it’s not.

Rasmussen Reports Loses Scott Rasmussen, But the Inaccurate Polls Will Remain
August 22, 2013

Scott Rasmussen has left Rasmussen Reports, one of the least accurate pollsters of the last two elections. From that perspective, you might expect that Rasmussen was fired for bad surveys.

Baitless Switch
Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee is a Democrat now. That doesn't mean his re-election is assured.
May 31, 2013

Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee is a Democrat now. That doesn't mean his re-election is assured.

Black Turnout in 2012 Might Not Have Been Historic
The inherent flaws of the Census' population survey
May 15, 2013

The inherent flaws of the Census' population survey.

The New Census Data That Should Terrify Republicans
Obama's coalition may only grow stronger after he leaves office
May 08, 2013

President Obama's coalition may only grow stronger after he leaves office, thanks to demographic changes.

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