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CROSSINGS JULY 12, 2011

The Bizarre, Strategically Bankrupt Evolution of the Parties’ Views on Defense Spending

The Obama administration has managed to upend the laws of ornithology. The simple fact of a Democratic commander-in-chief has transformed yesterday’s Republican hawks into today’s doves. No less miraculously, and certainly for no more high-minded reasons, Democratic doves have metamorphosed into something like hawks. 

In both cases, however, the transformation has been less than complete. Democrats, beginning with a president who currently presides over wars in three countries and periodically launches fusillades at several more (if a commander-in-chief earned a ribbon each time he ordered U.S. forces into action, Barack Obama would be well on his way to acquiring a chestful), have proved reluctant to fund the means for their military aims—namely, the U.S. military itself. As for Republicans, the GOP attachment to large defense appropriations endures (though just barely), but the ghost of Robert Taft haunts the party once more, making it wary of foreign entanglements. The Republican paradox has been neatly exemplified by congressional votes to deny approval for the air campaign in Libya, and then to fund the same operation to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars.

Although this migration of hawks and doves may not be the product of principled analysis—in matters of national security these days, Democrats and Republicans may entertain certain proclivities or inclinations, but they can hardly be said to have evinced firm principles—it is nonetheless real. The effect, too, is likely to be strategic bankruptcy.

THE REPUBLICAN TENDENCY to will the means but not the ends of America’s military establishment would certainly seem—to the extent that, say, history offers a guide—to be less hazardous than the Democratic inclination to do the reverse. Deterrence, for one, requires a strong defense capability even as it checks the military’s actual use. But deterrence, if it is to be sustained, requires something to deter. While Republicans have lately been claiming the defense of “vital interests” justifies their support for large military expenditures, when it comes to identifying these interests, otherwise voluble presidential candidates and members of Congress fall silent—that is, when not voting to condemn U.S. participation in an ongoing NATO operation in Libya, denouncing “nation building” in Afghanistan (a coarse echo of the president’s own lowest-common denominator formulation), and ranking trade rather than security as the supreme interest in relations with a rogues’ gallery of abusive regimes.

The contradictions in the Republican defense stance have been perfectly summarized by Mitt Romney, who has insisted that defense budgets ought to be “at least four percent of GDP, not three percent” and that the “right way to scale America’s defense budget is to add up the requirements for each of our missions”—this even as he calls for the abandonment of those very missions, beginning with the war in Afghanistan. In a similar vein, House Armed Services Committee Chairman Howard “Buck” McKeon routinely assails the Libya operation, to the point of advertising himself as the spokesman for the campaign to revive the War Powers Resolution, all the while doubling as the spokesman for the robust level of expenditures that enables the war in the first place.

Then, too, Republicans like McKeon may push for more defense spending, but they often allocate that money unwisely. Ideally, a nation’s concept of how much it should spend on its military derives from strategy: a realistic appraisal of interests and threats, and of means and ends. In the absence of such an appraisal, the Republican position has been to lard up the military budget—the result being that Congress routinely expends scarce defense funds on projects of dubious strategic worth, such as unneeded bases and obsolete production lines.

But, while Republican contradictions may prove unsustainable, the Democratic stance is downright inscrutable. Previously, Democratic opposition to defense spending reflected opposition to the uses for which defense expenditures were intended—Vietnam, Grenada, Iraq, and the rest of the litany. That’s no longer the case, or at least not so clearly. Yet, while the president boasts a record of frenetic military activism, his boosters continue to oppose the funding that makes these missions possible. So, when Obama dispatches American forces to Libya, or to Afghanistan, or to whatever far-flung precinct, the Democratic leadership reflexively backs its party’s standard-bearer. When the bill comes due, however, its members trot out tired variations of the Eisenhower-era cliché that, not only are we spending much more than is necessary on defense, we are doing so at the expense of our domestic programs, which are being bled dry in an era of budget-balancing.

In a neat trick, the president himself—the same president that doubled-down in Afghanistan and began from scratch in Libya—has now joined the Democratic chorus against military spending. Obama has pledged to begin “nation building at home,” and, as part of this construction process, he has proposed a substantial defunding of the armed forces, cutting between $400 billion and $700 billion from the defense budget and thereby committing the country to reductions in “force structure and military capability,” as outgoing defense secretary Robert Gates put it. All of this requires green-eye shades to make full sense of, but this much at least is evident: For all of its faux moral posturing about the pace of military deployments, the Obama team has cast a glance backward to the Donald Rumsfeld-era and set out, even with the Army and Marines at war, to shrink their ranks by tens of thousands of personnel—which is to say, to do more with fewer combat brigades. By definition, the primary aim of the administration’s rally to fiscal “sustainability” is not security but savings—a fine and important thing, but, in this case, also a formula for strategic exhaustion.

THE DISJUNCTURE BETWEEN the ends and means of American strategy may be inconsistent, but there are worse things. Hence, the new consistency: The debate over the debt ceiling has invited Americans to indulge in the conceit that we need no strategy at all. We no longer need to spend on the military, according to the revised wisdom, because we will no longer use the military. So how much should America spend on defense? According to leading Republicans and Democrats, from House Majority Leader Eric Cantor to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, the answer to that question now appears to be: much less than whatever we are spending, or thinking of spending. And how much should we be doing abroad? From President Obama, who has kicked off his campaign to focus on “nation building here at home,” to the Republican presidential aspirants, who have also summoned America to come home, the stars have come finally into alignment. Republicans and Democrats may approach the debt issue from different directions, but, when it comes to the national security component, both end up in the same place, acting as mutually reinforcing barriers to the exercise of American power.

Thus, Republicans and Democrats have proved true Secretary Gates’s fear “that, in economic tough times, people will see the defense budget as the place to solve the nation’s deficit problems.” Not that defense cuts will make so much as a dent in the debt they’re meant to cure. Next year, for example, the Pentagon means to spend $107 billion in Afghanistan—this, in comparison to the $3.7 trillion that the Obama team plans to spend overall. Put another way, military spending on the “necessary war” amounts to all of .75 percent of the nation’s $14.1 trillion GDP. None of this, however, seems to have made the slightest impression on Congress’s assembly of cheap hawks and profligate doves, whose positions are rapidly becoming indistinguishable from one another—and from those held by their common ancestor, the cheap dove of the 1970s. From that species, sadly, we have not heard the last.

Lawrence F. Kaplan is a contributing editor for The New Republic. 

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This article was nearly incomprehensible. It has all of the usual tropes of someone trying to defend an expenditure. "This will barely make a dent in the deficit, therefore, let's not do it!" (Why in the world did you divide the war in Afghanistan by total US GDP? Why not divide it by our current budget deficit? In that case, it equals about 7% of the current budget deficit.) Also: "Both parties are at fault. The Democrats want to completely eliminate the military. The Republicans want to expand it into an army of 5,000,000 killer robots. Only I have the sensible centrist position." (typical pox on both houses meant to establish credibility) We're drawing down in two theaters and barely involved in another theater (with no long term prospect for serious involvement). There is little political interest in getting seriously involved anywhere else. Yes, shockingly, expenditures can (and will) soon go down. We've expanded spending on important Cold War and Korean War Era weapons systems over the last 10 years. Time to cut spending on weapons. There seems to be vague bipartisan support for this concept, though the Democrats are a bit more enthusiastic, I'll admit.

- Virginia Centrist

July 12, 2011 at 1:05am

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The danger is a still-expensive but "hollowed-out" military with lots of troops, bases, and equipment, but no funds for training, deployment, and re-supply. We need a fundamental and objective as possible re-think of ends and means. At this point I think we could do most of what needs to be done with a right-sized Navy (which includes the Marine Corps); and a rationalized melding of Army and Air Force. We certainly don't need a large percentage of our foreign bases.

- Robert Powell

July 12, 2011 at 5:59am

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The political motivation for the Republicans' retreat is, of course, the fear of being forever linked to the fiasco that was Iraq; the political motivation for the Democrats' retreat is, of course, the fear of having the Republicans dump on Democrats responsibility for the fiasco that was Iraq. As for Kaplan's essay, linking Rumsfeld, despised by most everybody, to those who wish to retreat is impressive, although Rumsfeld may disapprove. Finally, I have to ask Kaplan if his inspiration for "cheap hawks and profligate doves" came from Bonhoeffer ("cheap grace and costly grace")? If so, that's even more impressive than the Rumsfeld linkage.

- rayward

July 12, 2011 at 7:58am

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The US armed forces were built, after WW2, to counter Soviet imperialism. The USSR fell in 1991 and our force structure hasn't changed a bit. Every dollar we spend on defense above our own needs is a dollar of foreign aid. Kaplan can caterwaul all he wants about spending but the fact is that Wall Street carelessness has turned the US into a country that can't afford the military we have. That's a fiscal fact. We need a strategic rethinking and justification for the military we have. But we are a much poorer nation than we were 4 years ago. It's economics. It's fact. We have to live with it.

- bpuharic

July 12, 2011 at 8:39am

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My biggest problem with all this "pre-emptive" spending on defense is the assumption that the armaments and force it buys will be used wisely. Boy, has that assumption been obliterated. Thus I make the distinction between mobilization spending (for a particular and imminent threat) and pre-emptive spending (for no particular and imminent threat). While I appreciate we will always need some level of preparedness, what's the point in all that pre-emptive spending when we don't even know the threat we are preparing for. One might argue that we always need to be prepared for a catastrophic attack, which was the cold war argument, but it was also assumed that it was good only as a deterent, not as preparedness for retaliation (because we are all dead). Of course, those who support lots of pre-emptive spending always seem to see threats of the very kind that fit squarely with all that spending, though history suggests that the enemy we may see in our future is not the enemy that we actually encounter.

- rayward

July 12, 2011 at 10:16am

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Am I the only one to notice that TNR these days consists of Jonathan Chait and a lot of great book reviews? The readable parts, I mean. I don't know what J. Cohn is writing. It certainly isn't a blog. As for the "articles," well, they're like this one--lame. With all his huffing and puffing about the rules of ornithology, Mr. Kaplan's sole point is "don't cut the damn defense budget," without bothering to explain why.

- AlanVann

July 12, 2011 at 11:38am

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AV, Jon Cohn's blog is good but needs to be edited down. He's writing good stuff as is Chait. But you still have a good point. I quit paying attention to Kaplan ages ago.

- tmmats

July 12, 2011 at 4:16pm

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Yes, Cohn's blog does have some heft to it. But TNR readers are more than able. Maybe I don't understand blogs. Although I would point out that the most successful blogger of them all has a record of initially being on the wrong side of almost every important issue that has arisen over the past ten years. Does changing one's mind, and changing it frequently, make one a real blogger?

- rayward

July 12, 2011 at 4:45pm

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I love the ornithology metaphor, but this article is, as others have noted, kind of crap. Comparing the Afghanistan budget to the entire federal budget strikes me as disingenuous, the rationale being, as far as I can tell, 'let's find the biggest number possible, and compare it to that!' I consider myself a supporter of serious defense spending, and Romney may well be right that it should be budgeted at "4 percent, not 3." Unfortunately, according to the last numbers I've seen, we're at 5.7% of the economy, and I'm not absolutely certain that includes Defense-related spending in the DOE, and other such things. I agree with Powell, re: our future posture; I also endorse mashing The Air Force back into the Army for other reasons (hint: history shows Air Force Generals make astonishingly bad military advisors; in a democracy in which the Commander in Chief is essentially a civilian, such men should probably be prevented from ever again becoming Chairman of the Joint Chiefs). However, it's not true that our posture hasn't changed since the Cold War. In the late eighties, according to my memory, we had about a quarter of a million troops in Germany. Now we have seventy-thousand, and continuing lower with time. Hopefully, we can continue to close overseas bases, but many of them are necessary for the US military's core mission, which remains power projection.

- Curran1

July 12, 2011 at 6:33pm

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Ray, are you talking about Sullivan?

- Curran1

July 12, 2011 at 6:34pm

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By quoting, without comment, Romney's view that military spending should be 4% not 3%, Kaplan is patently dishonest. Depending on what you include, our defense spending the measure of our defense spending ranges from 5.3% to nearly 7% of GDP. This is a multiple of oure allies spending as a percentage of GDP. Kaplan complains, but offers absolutely no reason why our spending for defense should ba so high -- for example why we should have any troops stationed in Germany which happens to be a prosperous country getting rich at our expense. Curren says in a comment that the role of our military should be power projection. I disagree. The role should be to defend our nation, in cooperation with our allies, period. Kaplan makes absolutely no argument -- coherent or otherwise -- why high spending is necessary for that goal.

- PeteBeck

July 13, 2011 at 7:20am

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Pete, I didn't say that the US military's role SHOULD be power projection. I said that's what it IS.

- Curran1

July 13, 2011 at 12:14pm

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