There's a strain of logic in recent presidential campaign
discourse that goes something like this: Though Barack Obama sports a modest
lead over John McCain in national polling, his apparent weakness in key
swing states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida could lead
to a loss in the electoral college even if he wins the national popular
vote by a wide margin. But his salvation could
lie in picking someone from one of those states, like Pennsylvania governor
Ed Rendell or Ohio governor Ted Strickland, as his running mate.
Of course, it's
certainly possible that the election will be so close as to make a split
conceivable. So Obama had better pick a Rendell or a Strickland as V.P., right?
Well, no. Summing up the work of the political scientists who have explored the
question, David W. Romero of the