WORLD AUGUST 6, 2011
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Is the end near for terrorism as we know it? According to a much-discussed Washington Post article that ran on July 26, U.S. counterterrorism officials believe that, after the death of Osama bin Laden and in the face of sustained drone attacks, Al Qaeda’s core leadership in Pakistan is on the “brink of collapse.” However, counterterrorism officials stressed in the article that the threat from “aggressive” affiliates is not diminishing—nor is the threat from “radicalized individuals,” also known as lone wolves. The consequences of this reality, which extends beyond Al Qaeda’s influence to other extremist groups and ideologies, are both complicated and deadly. The question now is what can be done to safeguard the world against them.
Both American and British officials have now stated that lone-wolf terrorism, whether inspired by Al Qaeda or by the far right, poses a growing risk to the West. This was made painfully clear by Anders Behring Breivik, who, armed with a gun and some fertilizer, managed to terrorize Norway and murder 77 people in late July. Before him, there was Major Nidal Hasan, a U.S. soldier who, in November 2009, murdered 13 of his fellow soldiers in Fort Hood, Texas. Moreover, a number of lone neo-Nazis and Al Qaeda-inspired jihadists have been jailed recently for attempted murders or planning to bomb targets in the UK. A new report that I co-authored for the Henry Jackson Society shows that 66 percent of Islamism-related offenses in the UK between 1999 and 2010 involved no direct links to terrorist organizations; from 2006 to 2010, critically, there was a steady decline in cell activity resulting in successful attacks or convictions, and a rise in the number of people committing offenses alone or aspiring to engage in terrorist activity.
For their part, Al Qaeda affiliates seem to sense the way the wind is blowing. For example, last month, in its latest issue of Inspire, an online English-language propaganda magazine, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Yemen said people should participate in “open source jihad [as it] is America’s worst nightmare.” And, last week, an Inspire article entitled “How to Build a Bomb in the Kitchen of Your Mom” was found among the possessions of a soldier who admitted to plotting a second attack at Fort Hood. The Washington Post reported that the news “may intensify fears that there is a growing terrorist threat from self-radicalized Americans and raise questions about whether the military can adequately identify internal threats.”
Indeed, the fact that individuals planning or carrying out attacks are often not in direct contact with the core of Al Qaeda or, as in the case of Breivik, a violent, right-wing organization raises serious fears and questions about how countries can best protect their people. It is far more difficult to track individuals than cells of larger groups, not least because people’s radicalization often takes place in isolation at a computer.
The expansion of the internet over the last decade, as both the U.S. and UK governments have noted, has “enabled” lone-wolf terrorism and begun to replace “face-to-face interactions.” (AQAP, for its part, has said people can “train at home instead of risking a dangerous travel abroad” to places like Pakistan.) Hasan, for one, was self-radicalized but received spiritual guidance via the internet. Similarly, Breivik was in contact with far-right extremists on Facebook and, hoping that his ideology would gain traction, posted his 1,500-page hate-filled manifesto with detailed bomb-making instructions online a few days before his attack. Generally speaking, extremist material such as Breivik’s manifesto and Inspire are troublingly easy to find and download.
SO WHAT CAN be done? For starters, it is imperative that tracking violent propaganda on the internet be a priority for counter-terrorism officials. Making it virtually impossible to access violent material (such as martyrdom videos) has already made headway, with some Al Qaeda forums, for example, being shut down. But new, dangerous sites can and will pop up. This is why countries need to go further and develop counter-radicalization strategies that challenge the spread of both violent and non-violent extremist ideologies. Non-violent extremists may not explicitly call for vicious acts in Western countries, but, as the UK government recognized in its recently revised Prevent strategy, both Islamist and far-right narratives can still act as ideological drivers of radicalization and terrorist activity.
In challenging extremist ideas, the British government has made it clear that it will not work with or fund extremist organizations that oppose “values of universal human rights, equality before the law [and] democracy.” (It had previously partnered non-violent Islamist groups.) It has also made clear that extremist ideas should be challenged in public spaces, such as at universities, which have so far done little to challenge Islamist ideas being flouted and have even seen some of its students participate in terrorism.
Will other countries follow suit, particularly in light of Breivik’s attack and new intelligence about Islamist lone wolves? Unfortunately, the U.S’s highly anticipated release of its own counter-radicalization strategy already shows that the government is shying away from addressing non-violent extremist ideologies. It does not identify Islamism, for example, as the main driver of extremism and radicalization, and states that it will only tackle violent ideology. Hopefully, the U.S. will revise this stance and countries like Norway, which has also seen the deadly effects of lone-wolf terrorism, will adopt a better strategy, as well. If lone-wolves are going to be tackled in any substantial way, it will be both by addressing violent propaganda online and also collectively challenging the root of the problem: the ideology of extremism.
Houriya Ahmed is a research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, a London-based think tank.
8 comments
"Unfortunately, the U.S’s highly anticipated release of its own counter-radicalization strategy already shows that the government is shying away from addressing non-violent extremist ideologies. It does not identify Islamism, for example, as the main driver of extremism and radicalization, and states that it will only tackle violent ideology." That's appalling. Islamism is not non-violent. All Islamists preach violence. It doesn't matter whether they actually pull a trigger. Major Nidal Hassan gave off many clues of his personal Islamic crisis that were ignored by his superiors. So far as we know, only Breivik can be said to be a lone-wolf.
- amidut
August 6, 2011 at 6:53am
This, from a 2005 Southern Poverty Legal Center report: "In the 10 years since the April 19, 1995, bombing in Oklahoma City, in fact, the radical right has produced some 60 terrorist plots. These have included plans to bomb or burn government buildings, banks, refineries, utilities, clinics, synagogues, mosques, memorials and bridges; to assassinate police officers, judges, politicians, civil rights figures and others; to rob banks, armored cars and other criminals; and to amass illegal machine guns, missiles, explosives, and biological and chemical weapons. " The 1995 bombing referred to above was the work of one Timothy McVeigh, aided by several accomplices. McVeigh -- warning, irony coming -- was not a regular attendant at a mosque. Christian fascist, white supremacist would be rather closer to the mark. Dan
- dbuck1
August 6, 2011 at 7:45am
A metaphor that comes to mind is cancer. If respect for life, respect for diversity, tolerance for differing points of view, an encouragement for problem-solving, an increase in the ability to solve our problems, represents "spiritual" (a word I can't stand, but have no better) health, then terrorism, violence, intolerance, sadism, and so on might be characterized a kind of cancer attacking our species. Cancer is better prevented than fought. The tools for fighting cancer are dangerous and painful, involving techniques such as radiation and chemotherapy. Even if successful, a stray cancer cell can trigger the deadly disease again. To push this analogy too far, our “war on terrorism” is something like radiation therapy and chemotherapy. Even if we are destroying Al Qaeda as a group, “individual” cells (individual terrorists) are still percolating through our social bloodstream and damaging us. In medicine, we do not yet (as far as I know) have the ability to identify, target, and destroy individual cancer cells. Perhaps the same thing is true in regard to individual terrorists.
- skahn
August 6, 2011 at 9:55am
In the penultimate paragraph, the word should be either "flaunted" or "touted," not "flouted."
- ironyroad
August 6, 2011 at 12:24pm
TNR needs interns who are literate enough to catch malapropisms like this one: "It has also made clear that extremist ideas should be challenged in public spaces, such as at universities, which have so far done little to challenge Islamist ideas being flouted and have even seen some of its students participate in terrorism." Instead of the wildly off the mark "flouted" I would substitute something like "inculcated" and if that is too strong how about "promoted?"
- arnon
August 7, 2011 at 12:26am
What is the larger picture. Here we address the lone terrorist. The one that is driven by the mountains of hatred and violence promulgated by their leaders secular and religious. On the other hand we have a media that engages in mis-information and virulent demonization of their opponents. Then we have official acceptance of dictators killing unarmed demonstrators because they have the offense of expressing their grievances against oppression by their leaders. We have a European country that has engaged in ultra leftist radical activities using all means of distortions and dishonesty, using a famous peace prize to reward ultra leftists bigots and malfeasants. And we have a world leader that is neither a leader nor a promulgator of moral honesty, engages in lying and confusion, and a typical do nothing. We spend mountains of time and attention when a loose canon goes single handed and kills innocents by himself. There is non attention when a dictator is killing at leisure unarmed demonstrators. Let us get real. This hypocrisy of evil by the narcissistic media and other leaders is more criminal than the loner loony killing of innocent bystanders. Piece of advise, keep your eyes open at all times, there is a killer out there looking for revenge, looking for satisfaction to avenge the evils of criminal propaganda.
- JAIMECHUCH
August 9, 2011 at 9:03am
Above all let us repeat together the reelection bit Yes We Can Do Thing. And above all his old cliche "We All Are The United States of America" . He the anointed one is tuning for re-election in 2012. And his opponents are doing a helluva of a job to have him re-elected. Four more years, yeah, of unemployment and drone attacks wherever we wish, selectively speaking. His opponents shout : down with social benefits, give it to the rich because they are hurting, the stock market is down and I hear Tiffany's just raised their prices and gold is at 1700 dollars an ounce and going up. Hey platinum is at 17,000 dollars and ounce. And the fish shop just raised prices of shrimp and lobster. Yes We Can Do Nothing. Why save a lost cause, when it is already lost. Will come down in history as the do nothing presidency and era. Does it apply? He is half Black and half White, he hates himself but does not know why. He is half Moslem and half Jew he hates himself but does not know why.
- JAIMECHUCH
August 9, 2011 at 9:27am
We all are the United States of America, we stay together we sink together, and there is more sinking together coming up. If we do nothing, nothing will happen, nothing nothing nothing. The banality of nothingness. Forecast by our Washington savants, in 2025 our debt will be 80% of GDP. What is the moral of the story? Nothingness brings , you guessed, nothingness. Yes We Can do nothing. Going for my coffee brewed in the heavily discounted guevalia pot. Only the best.
- JAIMECHUCH
August 9, 2011 at 9:39am