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FOREIGN POLICY DECEMBER 15, 2010

If Only Holbrooke Had Been Given a Free Hand in Afghanistan

One can just imagine what the Wikileaks records of Richard Holbrooke’s diplomacy would have looked like. His salty, roustabout’s slinging of abuse when needed; his explosive pugnacity while negotiating in person and his relentlessly unsentimental drive towards a result—none of it would have looked pretty on paper. Yet he pulled off the impossible by imposing stability on the Balkans with the Dayton Accords. The world had been waiting for a second Holbrooke miracle, this time in Afghanistan, when the veteran diplomat died on Monday, having failed to recover from a long operation on his heart.

The late leader of the Bosnian Muslims, Alia Izetbegovic, used to complain loudly that he was forced into the Dayton deal by Holbrooke’s incessant bullying. And yet it was Holbrooke who allowed the Muslims and the Croats to cheat during the temporary ceasefires at war’s end to recapture chunks of their lost territory. Conversely, having engineered the air strikes against Serbia, Holbrooke charmed and coddled Slobodan Milosevic at Dayton and then pitilessly cheered on the postwar prosecutions of Serb leaders for war crimes.

President Clinton was very lucky to have Holbrooke—indeed he didn’t want him at first. Like George W. Bush, Bill Clinton was a reluctant and uninspired dabbler in foreign affairs, too often rather clueless about who to appoint to which troublesome task. As Holbrooke made clear in his memoirs, he only got the Balkan portfolio after much lobbying in the face of resistance from Bill Clinton. But Clinton’s make-it-go-away approach to world crises accidentally succeeded in the Balkans: It gave Holbrooke a free hand to bang heads together to force an outcome.

A free hand is precisely what Holbrooke was not allowed in Afghanistan: From the military to Robert Gates to Hillary Clinton, too many players on his side could countermand him. When Holbrooke tried to strong-arm Hamid Karzai, the Afghan president simply refused to deal with him and the United States caved. Holbrooke was made to shift his focus to Pakistan, which simply diffused the holistic solution that someone like Holbrooke might impose on the region. One suspects that he would have battled away to regain the requisite seniority under President Obama, and perhaps got the nod just as the Obama era ended. How many times, within living memory, have you been struck by the notion that the right person was brilliantly appointed to the right task in Washington?

It’s no secret that Holbrooke badly wanted to be secretary of state. He himself made no secret of it, or of his sense that he was the best man for the job. Would he have been a great secretary of state? In the few times I met him, he came across as a man out of his time. A craggy, bruising but essentially noble World War ll-era quality emanated from him. He talked at you with a loud gravelly voice, and listened at best rather impatiently. 

He once invited a friend of mine, an Afghan expert, to advise him on the scene there. My friend began to tell him about the various tribes, the corruption, the difficult terrain. “Don’t tell me about the problems. … I know the problems, just give me solutions,” barked Holbrooke—so my friend says. In fact, Holbrooke probably did know the problems. He read widely and gathered information ferociously. But he did not want to know too much—enough only to discern and hammer a solution into place.

Holbrooke was, in the end, a man to whom you could entrust a particular task, the harder the better—win a war, rebuild New Orleans maybe—and he would get it done somehow. But ask him to manage world affairs, with the requisite tact and infinite patience and pliant imagination… I’m not so sure. Still, when Americans like him—experienced problem-solvers—did run the world, as they did for much of the last century, they did pretty well. With Holbrooke gone, there are scarcely any of them left.

Melik Kaylan writes for The Wall Street Journal and Forbes.

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6 comments

Nice reflection on Holbrooke. But "a free hand in Afghanistan"?. I'm not aware of anyone who's had such a thing since before Alexander the Great, if ever.

- Robert Powell

December 15, 2010 at 11:31am

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"Still, when Americans like him—experienced problem-solvers—did run the world, as they did for much of the last century, they did pretty well. With Holbrooke gone, there are scarcely any of them left." Well said. All we have now are pretty much sniping backbenchers as "leaders". Their only mantra is cut taxes, 'starve the beast' and give the rich whatever they want.

- tnmats

December 15, 2010 at 1:21pm

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Bob, ditto about the reflection on Holbrooke, I recall you pushed for him to be Sec. back in the day. By the way, the Mongels had a pretty good grip on that area. Riding in on horseback, killing everyone who opposed them, and riding out was pretty effective in cowing everyone else.

- blackton

December 15, 2010 at 1:27pm

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Yeah, I was really disappointed when Hillary got the job, and remain so. Right about the Mongols. They knew how to run an empire, arguably more successfully than anyone before or since. Highly recommend "Genghis Khan and the Making of the Modern World" by Jack Weatherford. Entertaining read, and full of little-known facts about the management secrets of this great empire.

- Robert Powell

December 16, 2010 at 5:02am

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What does Kaylan imagine Holbrooke would have done in Afghanistan with a "free hand"? Destroying the sad attempts of the Serbs to reassert a remembered national glory on the fringes of Europe is light years away from successfully subjugating a nominally allied leader like Karzai, especially when we have no real alternative to him and he knows it. In any event, I frankly doubt he could have come up with any more "brilliant" approach than the current one: Ratchet up air strikes, push back the withdrawal date to 2014 or whenever to try and convince the Taliban we can outlast them, and coerce the Pakistanis into going into North Waziristan (and then back into South Waziristan, Swat, etc, etc). I see that the leader of the Kosovar state he mid-wifed is openly suspected of running drug and organ theft rings. The seemingly endless encomia upon his demise--I count five articles so far just in TNR--may well prove to be the high point of his legacy.

- ccarrick@vzavenue.net-old

December 16, 2010 at 9:01pm

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when I read this title, my first thought was "do a Genghis". Yeah, Tamerlane, and then his alleged descendant, Akbar the Mogul, had successful Afghanistan-based empires. actually am seeing same thought (Genghis) in other conflict zones, like North Korea. Perhaps the experiement with post WW2 "limited wars/frozen conflicts" should come to an end... OTOH, 20th century Afghanistan, after the Third Afghan War 1919 and before the Soviet invasion 1979, under the monarchies, was actually a very promising country. Recommend two travel memoirs: Robert Byron's 1933 "Road to Oxiana", and SCOTUS Justice William O. Douglas' 1957 "West of the Indus" (Karachi to Istanbul in a station wagon!) Both avoided Kandahar, prefering the Herat to Kabul route through Mazir-a-Sharif. Rory Stewart also avoided Kandahar, walking from Herat to Kabul through the center, where the Hazaras cluster..."The Places in Between"

- K2K

December 18, 2010 at 10:41am

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