JONATHAN CHAIT JUNE 23, 2011
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I don't understand the journalistic value of the Wall Street Journal providing a regular forum for Karl Rove to make bullish predictions for Republicans, because Rove is wrong a lot. But apparently the Journal thinks its readers need the comfort of constant reassurance in good times and bad.
Today's column provides a pretty good insight into Rove's analytic methods:
Mr. Obama's standing has declined among other, larger groups. Gallup reported his job approval rating Tuesday at 45%, down from 67% at his inaugural. Among the groups showing a larger-than-average decline since 2009 are whites (down 25 points); older voters (down 24); independents and college graduates (both down 23), those with a high-school education or less, men, and Southerners (all down 22); women (down 21 points); married couples and those making $2,000-$4,000 a month (down 20). This all points to severe trouble in suburbs and midsized cities in states likes Colorado, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Nevada.
There's more. Approval among younger voters has dropped 22 points, and it's dropped 20 points among Latinos.
I really enjoy the use of statistics here. Rove begins by announcing that Obama's approval has dropped since his inauguration -- when it was an obviously unsustainable 67% -- to 45%. (Which puts Obama very close to an even proposition for reelection, not the likely loser Rove paints him as.) A drop from 67% to 45% is a decline of 22 percentage points. Rove adds more numbers as if these are additional revelations, each one a fresh nail in Obama's reelection coffin: He's dropped 25% among men! 24% among the elderly! 23% among independents!
Indeed, you could even say that a 22 percentage point among the electorate as a whole drop implies that each subgroup will see a drop of approximately 22 percentage points. It might be interesting if some subgroups were dropping more or less than that average amount. But no, Rove continues to pile on more ways to show various groups dropping by around 22 percentage points. College graduates! Non-college graduates! Men! Southerners! Women! And on and on! Rove fails to use his keen data analysis to demonstrate that Obama has fallen by around 22 percentage points among both left- and -right-handed voters.
22 comments
Actually, it would be interesting to determine whether there is a significant difference in voting behavior between right and left handed voters.
- JohnEMack
June 23, 2011 at 8:57am
Wait, Do you mean to tell me that Obama's popularity went down since he was inaugerated? WOW!
- MikeB.
June 23, 2011 at 9:17am
JC, Do you now see Obama's re-election as a 50/50 bet?
- MikeB.
June 23, 2011 at 9:18am
Obama's poll numbers not only fell from 67% to 45% in the country as a whole, but it fell from 67% to 45% in all of the states combined!
- Nusholtz
June 23, 2011 at 9:25am
Jon, you're missing the best part. Karl quotes two groups at 21 and 20 percent as examples of larger-than-average declines.
- nanoprof
June 23, 2011 at 9:46am
Levity notwithstanding, I am changing my outlook on his reelection to cautiously pessimistic, from fairly optimistic. It's not that anything substantial has changed, but he looks more and more beaten every day. Whether that is real or whether that is the CW pushed relentlessly by the MSM doesn't matter. Voters like to see a fighter and a winner, and these days, our president seems to have very few wins. I am not looking for a catalog of his wins, all I am saying is that he is not seen as winning. It's like Jon Stewart's interview on Fox last Sunday. I made the mistake of watching only the unedited version, and came away thinking that Stewart did a magnificent job (far, far better than any Democratic politican is doing) ... was brought back down to earth when a friend told me that he only watched the live version, and Stewart came across like an idiot. I am hoping that this is just a case of him keeping his powder dry.
- NR409654
June 23, 2011 at 9:58am
There are two at least two conclusions Rove wants a reader to take away from his constant repetition of these data: (1) He is implying that all these sub-groups favor the president at only 45%. (2) He is implying that all sub-groups see the same level of decline (only African-Americans are specifically excluded.) For example, since Rove's paragraph before the statistics mentioned Jewish voter disenchantment, we are meant to imply that Obama's support in this group has fallen precipitously -- when this is not the case. Based on how this was written, we can infer Rove has at least two main goals: (1) Political -- Rove lays out a state-by-state electoral vote strategy for defeating Obama. Sub-divide the electorate and the GOP can win key swing states. (2) Financial -- Rove needs to counter the growing belief (within GOP and conservative circles) that the GOP field is weak and Obama will likely be reelected. If this belief takes hold, Rove's fund-raising operations will not reap the profits he seeks.
- dianakunkel
June 23, 2011 at 10:22am
very insightful, diana. I think you're right.
- GSpinks
June 23, 2011 at 10:41am
Karl Rove is full of shit.... isn't this one of those times my Jewish brothers and sisters would say "ma nishtanah?" Do I have that right?
- Tristan
June 23, 2011 at 10:44am
Tristan, or you could just go with "Eh, that putz." Whatever works for you!
- mtinora@me.com
June 23, 2011 at 10:57am
Karl Rove is a mind massage for the base. That is why he appears frequently at the WSJ editorial page. NR, it is preposterous to say that Barack Obama looks beaten at this point. He is a long-term warrior. not a Nervous Nellie like so many commenters here. Elections just about always turn on the economy, so the state of the economy a year from now will be a very important datum, which we cannot know now, of course.
- liberalref
June 23, 2011 at 11:07am
If I followed your syntax correctly, that puts Obama down a total of 264 percentage points from the time of his inauguration.
- aduncanson
June 23, 2011 at 11:30am
Six weeks ago Obama had just found bin Laden and had him killed, he made (further) fools out of the birthers, the stock market was swinging, and Mark Cuban had no NBA championships. In other words, all was well and good in the world. Now Obama looks "defeated." Sheesh.
- W_Bombay
June 23, 2011 at 12:49pm
Yes, lib, I am being a Nervous Nellie, and as I said, I hope all that he's doing right now is keeping his powder dry for 2012. And Bombay, as I also said, I don't need a catalog of his accomplishments, I am very aware of the magnitude of what he's achieved. I am not one of those who's asking for a new nominee for 2012 or fretting that the two parties are the same. I am with most of you in recognizing his many sterling qualities. My only point is that when the history of this presidency is written, it's looking like they'll say, "for a guy who got so much done, he sure didn't get any of the credit". Most of my friends, while not as into the process as I am, are solidly centrist Democrats or converted Republicans, and while they would never vote for whoever the Republican nominee is, there is a very distinct lack of enthusiasm for our president. He needs to give people like them a reason to go vote for him in November (all twaddle about civic duty aside).
- NR409654
June 23, 2011 at 1:21pm
I think it'll be clear who to vote for once the GOP selects its nominee and they meet head-to-head with BHO in the general. I only wish more swing voters were of the sensible variety. Alas, I'm still afraid Joe and Jane Suburb are going to still be upset that they can't afford fillet mignon for dinner every night, or street monsters that get less mileage than an A1, while maintaining private schooling for their 4 children. And I wonder how many more potential whale donors will storm out of a dinner with Obama because someone won't stroke their financial-ego and promise to talk to someone at their bank about that loan they want.
- GSpinks
June 23, 2011 at 2:26pm
I should have said "he needs to give people like them a reason to vote", not "... a reason to vote for him."
- NR409654
June 23, 2011 at 3:28pm
- It's all in Rove's math. In an interview with National Public Radio's Robert Siegel (10-23-06), Rove insisted that his insider polling data forecast Republican retention of both houses:
- michaelg
June 23, 2011 at 3:34pm
If they don't care what happens to the country, maybe they SHOULD stay home and not bother voting. I like to think of it as "electing the government we deserve".
- GSpinks
June 23, 2011 at 3:52pm
michael, actually it could very well be 1996 all over again, leaving Obama in the same position as Clinton. It all depends on voter backlash to Tea Bagger incompetence in governance. I'm certainly hoping there's a vicious backlash, but swing voters to tend to vote the economy and if it's not fixed by 2012 there's a good chance they'll vote more Republicans into office despite the positive correlation between democrat control of government and economic recovery.
- GSpinks
June 23, 2011 at 3:56pm
Spinks, like I said, we can piously sit here and say people should do their civic duty and vote. Surely you would agree that there's something to be said for a candidate generating enthusiasm among voters that are turned off ...
- NR409654
June 23, 2011 at 4:02pm
- Rove and his math would admit that absent an opponent these numbers mean nuttin'. As I've said, a primary is like passing in football. Remember, Lou said three things can happen and two are bad. Rove also knows the GOP doesn't have near the ringer he did but they do have two LDSers (not rebel country friendly). Please KR, show us your guy's numbers! His team has ugly written all over it and his opps will have the first shot with the slime guns? On the other hand, he's still creepy.
- michaelg
June 23, 2011 at 4:41pm
NR409654, Not so much. Just more "electing the government we deserve". All that matters is due processed is followed and the resulting outcome. I think there's something to be said (many, nasty things, actually) for putting personal feelings of enthusiasm above and beyond any sense of civic duty, but that's a different ball of wax.
- GSpinks
June 23, 2011 at 6:06pm