JONATHAN CHAIT MAY 6, 2010
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A Gallup poll shows that the enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats seems to be narrowing:
Jonathan Bernstein cites this as one reason why I might be too bearish on the Democrats' midterm prospects. Well, maybe. On the other hand, we had a good test of Democratic enthusiasm on Tuesday, and once again it looks bleak:
Turnout among Dem voters dropped precipitously in 3 statewide primaries on Tuesday, giving the party more evidence that their voters lack enthusiasm ahead of midterm elections.
In primaries in NC, IN and OH, Dems turned out at far lower rates than they have in previous comparable elections.
Just 663K OH voters cast ballots in the competitive primary between LG Lee Fisher (D) and Sec/State Jennifer Brunner (D). That number is lower than the 872K voters who turned out in '06, when neither Gov. Ted Strickland (D) nor Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) faced serious primary opponents.
Only 425K voters turned out to pick a nominee against Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC). The 14.4% turnout was smaller than the 444K voters -- or 18% of all registered Dem voters -- who turned out in '04, when Gov. Mike Easley (D) faced only a gadfly candidate in his bid to be renominated for a second term.
And in IN, just 204K Hoosiers voted for Dem House candidates, far fewer than the 357K who turned out in '02 and the 304K who turned out in '06.
By contrast, GOP turnout was up almost across the board.
I agree with Bernstein that the Democrats do have a chance to have a non-catastrophic election if the economy continues to rebound. But it's pretty clear that the current trajectory is pointing to an epic GOP blowout. Democrats need a pretty sharp change in that trajectory. So my prediction remains the same:
7 comments
Rumor has it that Lawrence Tero is now running for David Obey's old seat in Wisconsin, captalizing on the GOP's newfound excitement for black candidates and his attempt to make the Packers as a defensive lineman in the 1970s.
- wildboy
May 6, 2010 at 9:22am
Clubber Lang got his ass handed to him at the end of the movie you must remember...
- MrCookie1
May 6, 2010 at 9:58am
As has been repeatedly said for months, no Progressive bill of any real consequence is going to pass unless the filibuster is broken by the Dems. It is a tactic to make the Dems look (and be) powerless. It works.. why quit now? The Repubs will break the filibuster as soon as they have 51 Senate votes. Unless the Dems break the filibuster that energize their base and many independents, they will suffer large losses and Repubs may gain the power that their tactics are designed to achieve. What they do once in power may be bonkers policy wise, but they will not hesitate to exercise power.
- drofnats1
May 6, 2010 at 10:33am
There may be a slightly more sophisticated way to look at the turn out in these primaries, but to do so you have to actually look at the ballots. On our Indiana ballot, out of 18 races in the Democratic primary, only four or so had any contest at all. There simply was no reason in the Primary for Democratic voters to be motivated to go. It is far too simplistic to say voters are 'enthusiastic' absent the context. Nearly every Democratic voter I knew stayed home; not out of lack of enthusiasm, as much as satisfaction with who is running and/or knowledge that the races were not contested. This is vastly a different premise than that they won't show up in November to vote. Conversely, at least here in Indiana, the Republicans had hotly contested primaries with multiple challengers, and the tea baggers got their hat handed to them by establishment GOP candidates. How enthusiastic will those GOP voters be now? Thus, it may be that come November, the enthusiasm will flip; a divided GOP not excited by their own shopworn candidates, and Dems wanting to support their unified party.
- danbd
May 6, 2010 at 10:43am
"an epic GOP blowout"? Epic? Somewhat exaggerated, what? Dan: thanks for the excellent riposte. You demonstrate that in overanalysis of the raw "data", there is danger of underanalysing real phenomena.
- icarusr
May 6, 2010 at 11:16am
Part of the reason here in NC many of us didn't bother this time (myself included) was the choices were "eh, what's the difference", but superior to any Republican. I will show up at the polls in November, but for now it's not that big a deal between the candidates running. I expect that many are in the same boat as me.
- tnmats
May 6, 2010 at 11:25am
Yes dan, in MD Democrat there were no contested races at all, even for state delegates and school boards. The only one was for GOP Governor nominee where Ehrlich was opposed by a Palin endorsee but lost. However, polls show OMalley ahead of Ehrlich and I expect a preety large turnout in Dem districts
- NR027810
October 1, 2010 at 11:52am