JONATHAN CHAIT JANUARY 25, 2010
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I continue to hear people saying that Martha Coakley’s defeat in Massachusetts had nothing or very little to do with the approval of the Obama administration in that state. For those who continue to adhere to this opinion, let’s look at some other states where the decline in a candidate’s polls can’t be explained away by the Democratic candidate’s ineptitude. What you find in those states is that in polling for the 2010 senate and gubernatorial elections, the Democrat was initially ahead but began to fall behind at roughly the same time as Obama’s approval ratings also began to fall.
Missouri: Democrat Senate candidate Robin Carnahan (from one of Missouri’s most popular political families) was running consistently ahead of Republican Roy Blunt until the red and blue lines began to cross last December. Here’s a chart from Pollster.com:
Now here’s a chart of Obama’s approval rating in the state:
Colorado: Democratic incumbent Senator Michael Bennet is facing an election battle against Ken Buck. Bennet’s edge began to go south in December, as this chart show.
Here is a chart of Obama’s approval rating in the state:
Ohio: Until late this fall, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, a Democrat, was well ahead of former Rep. Rob Portman, a Republican, in senate polls for 2010. Then, as this chart shows, Fisher’s rating dived.
Until this fall, incumbent Governor Ted Strickland was ahead of Republican former Rep. John Kasich. Then, as this chart shows, his standing slumped.
Here is a chart of Obama’s approval rating in the state. Note the similarities in the curve between this chart and the charts of the gubernatorial and senate races:
Pennsylvania: Incumbent Senator and nouveau Democrat Arlen Specter was once way ahead of former Rep. Pat Toomey. Now, as this chart shows, he trails.
Obama’s approval in the state, as shown in this chart. has fallen accordingly.
I am not saying that in all these cases, the Democratic candidates didn’t stumble, or that the Republican didn’t shine, but viewed as a whole, they present a picture of a national decline in public support for Democratic politics and for the Obama administration radiating outward from Washington and threatening Democratic candidates in states that Democrats must generally win to carry national elections.
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6 comments
Of course the Obama administration had nothing to do with Coakley's defeat. The doggie did it! Beau Biden gets it: there are doggies in Delaware too.
- lsernoff
January 25, 2010 at 8:10pm
In the Obamaite alternative reality, Coakley is the Wicked Witch of the East, Bernanke and Geithner are the wizards who saved America and folks just can't see that because they're too dumb. In that same reality, Obamaintoinette sometimes concedes everyone the high privilege of watching another teleprompter moment and that's enough to calm all those out there with no job, no home and no food. The cortesans in the Senate are all under the spell of the teleprompter majesty. Among other things, they're preparing to confirm Bernanke and ask no questions. And they think that what happened in Massachusetts will stay in Massachusetts. After all, they're all just cortesans and no wicked witches. And the average voter, as dumb as he may be -- and he is really really dumb according to the teleprompter majesty and his cortesans -- will see that. If not on his own, Obamaintoinette dream team of campaigners, hired just lask week, will show him the way.
- Ideaot
January 26, 2010 at 3:03am
November is still a long way away, if the economy improves the numbers will reverse (I can't see how Republicans can only run on a Healthcare bill that didn't pass) If the economy doesn't, then Republicans can run against Democratic failure. And as to Pa. most Americans have no idea what an utter simple minded jackass Pat Toomey is. He was my Congressman for years and was useless for the Lehigh Valley since he was far more interested in promoting his facile Club for Greed beliefs nationwide. He is Rick Santorum, but even more radical. He is going to run as the not Democrat and try to obscure his real beliefs, if the economy stays bad, it might work. lsernoff, do you really want freakshows like these teabaggers or Pat Toomey running Congress? Scott Brown, or Chris Christie I can easily live with (and Coakley was a grade A number one total entitled asshole, who derided the notion of shaking hands with voters in the cold, the only reason I would have voted for her is the D next to her name, but I could easily see the uninformed Democrats staying home and not vote for her) but the Palinites are bonkers. Have the Americans learned nothing from the lost decade, that you can't rebuild a house the Republicans tore down in one year?
- blackton
January 26, 2010 at 11:00am
So what's the point? The people just jump from the R's to the D's and back again. Meanwhile, spending continues to grow, debt continues to grow, and wealth continues to be transferred from those who create and earn it to politically-favored parasites (Wall Street, banks, government employees, and the "poor"). When will people wake up and start voting for the Libertarians and other small-government candidiates? Dale Ogden, Libertarian, 2010 Candidate for Governor of California; http://www.daleogden.org http://www.daleogden.net
- dalefogden
January 26, 2010 at 2:31pm
blackton: While I constantly identify myself in comments as a Republican and a conservative, that should not be taken as an endorsement of "freakshows", by me or by a hell of a lot of others who so describe themselves. I am more comfortable with Scott Brown in the Senate than I would have been with Martha Coakley. If I was still living in Virginia I would have favored Jim Webb over George Allen. If I was living in Illinois this year, I'd pull the lever for Kirk. If I was living in Indiana, I'd favor Bayh over Pence. If I was back in the state of my youth, Pennsylvania, I might have to sit out a contest between Toomey and Spector (whom I loathe for his personal attributes, not his policy positions). The "base" of each party considers the "base" of the other other party to be lunatics. What the two bases have in common is a contempt for "centrists", particularly their own centrists. As for Palin, I think she has found her natural home in the entertainment wing of the conservative movement. I expect she will become quite prosperous delivering rot fleisch fur die hunde, and is delighted to be of interest to the left wing hunde as well as the right wing hunde. The rest of us should put her out of our minds.
- lsernoff
January 26, 2010 at 5:05pm
The beginning of the beginning of the bitter end for Democrats come November. What a total loss. Obama has really disappointed big time. I don't expect any further initiatives of his or Congressional Democrats. Their day came and now has went. Damn!
- Tgossard
January 26, 2010 at 9:16pm