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Go Home No Matter Who Wins Today, the Electoral College Has to Go

PLANK NOVEMBER 5, 2012

No Matter Who Wins Today, the Electoral College Has to Go

Last week I tried to explain the Electoral College to a very bright teenager from France. She’s attending my daughter's high school for a couple of weeks as part of an informal exchange—last year my daughter spent a couple of weeks attending her lycée in Nantes—and when she returns home she's supposed to write a report about the presidential election. She'd heard that Americans do not elect their president by popular vote, but she had trouble understanding exactly how we did elect them. Over a dinner of truite amandine (I was trying to make her feel at home), my girlfriend and I answered her questions. (My daughter was busy making phone calls for Obama, bless her heart.)

We explained that in the U.S., people don’t elect presidents; states do. Not every state has an equal share in the vote, but the state shares aren’t entirely proportional to population either. Each state gets as many electors as it has U.S. representatives (a population-based allocation) plus U.S. senators (two for every state, regardless of its size). That gives small states an advantage. “So big states have a disadvantage?” she asked. Well, no, we explained, because every state except Nebraska and Maine awards its electors on a “winner-take-all” basis. Small states get an advantage, but big states get an advantage, too. It’s in the medium-sized states where individual votes get diluted. And these “electors”? Qui sont-ils? They’re actual people, chosen at the state level to represent one candidate or another, but there’s no federal law requiring them to, and nobody’s ever been prosecuted for voting for somebody else instead, as some oddball “faithless elector” will do now and then (most recently in 2004).

At about this point a puzzled frown appeared on our French guest’s face, and I could tell that she was thinking: C’est stupide.

Oui, bien sur. Foreigners can never understand why American voters put up with the Electoral College, and I’m hard-pressed to come up with any explanation other than this. We Americans love our Constitution so much that we can’t bear to change even the stupid parts. It took 74 years and a bloody Civil War to get the Constitution to say that human beings are never property, so don’t expect fast action changing a system of choosing presidents that makes most people’s eyes glaze over—even if it is an affront to most contemporary notions of democracy.

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The Electoral College does have a few defenders. Their main argument is that it manufactures majorities. It’s been relatively rare in recent years for any one candidate to win a large majority of popular votes. Obama’s 53 percent in 2008 was the biggest presidential majority since George H.W. Bush’s 53 percent twenty years earlier. Bill Clinton had to settle for popular-vote pluralities rather than majorities, and of course George W. Bush couldn’t claim even a plurality in 2000 (though he went on to win 51 percent in 2004). Electoral college tallies exaggerate pluralities into majorities and slim majorities into bigger majorities: 365-173 for Obama in 2008; 286-251 for Bush in 2004; 271-266 for Bush in 2000. OK, that last one was very close, but that year the popular-vote victory margin was 0.51 percent (in Gore’s favor), as opposed to an electoral-vote margin of, hey, a full percentage point (in Bush’s favor).

The Electoral College’s majoritarian bias is not built into the Constitution, so it’s no use attributing it to James Madison’s far-seeing critique of “domestic faction and insurrection.” It’s the result of individual decisions by 48 states to maximize an individual state’s influence on the outcome (at the expense of its citizens’ influence) by awarding electors on a winner-take-all basis. True, the winner-take-all Electoral College does prevent the vote from splintering, potentially giving us popular-vote winners with pluralities below 30 percent. But that potential problem could be addressed through runoff elections. The argument against runoff elections is that they potentially empower fringe candidates to become power brokers. But in the U.S., political candidates don’t typically have much influence over their supporters when they bow out of a race and endorse somebody else.

As the Bush-Gore debacle showed, sometimes the Electoral College does more than just exaggerate the margin of victory; sometimes it changes who the victor is. In our focus-group-and-computer-driven modern democracy, in which fierce competition between the two dominant parties efficiently divides the electorate into near-perfect halves, it seems likely that splits between the popular vote and the electoral vote will be more frequent than they’ve been in the past. Before Bush in 2000, John Quincy Adams (1824); Rutherford B. Hayes (1876); and Benjamin Harrison (1888) were the only presidents to lose the popular vote. But a split seemed very possible in 1960, 1968, 1976, 1992, and 2004, and it once again seems very possible in 2012 (with Obama winning the Electoral College while Romney wins the popular vote).

One particularly unpersuasive argument in favor of the Electoral College is actually derived from the 2000 election. This is the “50 Floridas” argument. Sen. Mitch McConnell articulated it in 2001:

The difference between Al Gore and George W. Bush in the national popular vote was about 500,000 (less than that, even, in the first few days after the election). That is a difference of less than 0.5% of the votes cast. A few thousand votes here and a few thousand votes there could have changed that election result. The Electoral College served to center the post-election battles in Florida. Without it, I fully expect we would have seen vote recounts and court battles in nearly every state of the Union.

What this fails to recognize is that when you’re assembling one big count rather than a lot of little ones it’s a lot less clear what’s to be gained from rigging any of the little ones. There are no states to win or lose; there is only the national popular vote to win or lose. And when all that matters is one big national tally rather than a lot of little ones, the likelihood of a close-enough-to-manipulate tally is smaller, not greater, simply because the numbers you’re dealing with are much greater. The national difference between Gore and Bush may have been 500,000 votes in 2000 (actually 543,895), but the outcome-changing difference in Florida was a mere 537 votes (according to the official tally, anyway). There’s no end to the ways you can massage a 537-vote plurality for one candidate into a 537-vote for another one. And there’s a powerful motivation to do so when that narrow majority can be leveraged in a populous, winner-take-all state like Florida into an outsized share of the Electoral College. Under a popular vote, such leverage isn’t possible. All votes are equal. As they are, one should note, in state legislative elections under Reynolds v. Sims, the Supreme Court’s “one man, one vote” ruling in 1964. The final irony of the Electoral College is that, were it not written into the Constitution, its unequal distribution of voter power would be judged, by the highest court in the land … unconstitutional.

The best solution to the Electoral College’s inequities would be to write it out of the Constitution. That would be difficult, but not impossible. (After all, we’ve amended the Constitution 27 times before.) Second-best would be for more states to join California, Hawaii, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, New Jersey, Vermont, Washington, and the District of Columbia in the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, which pledges to award state electors based on the national popular vote (weirdly, it’s within each state's power to do so) once all the states in the compact account for a majority of all electoral votes. (At the moment, they account for about one-quarter.) If President Obama wins today's presidential election without winning the popular vote, he should endorse the compact, and perhaps even a constitutional amendment. Some might worry it might undermine his own legitimacy, but I think that would be logically unassailable, given that both sides shaped their strategies according to existing rules. What it would do, I think, is convey Obama's sense that here, as with so many other things in government, there's a better way.

Correction. An earlier version of this column gave an incomplete list of states that have joined the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, and stated, erroneously, that it accounts for about one-eighth of all electoral votes, when in fact it accounts for twice that proportion.

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS

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16 comments

Agree 100%, excellent post, but I think you mean "One particularly unpersuasive argument *for* the Electoral College" or "against *abolishing* the Electoral College."

- JakeH

November 6, 2012 at 2:09am

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That was a good analysis. Thank you.

- Claris

November 6, 2012 at 6:49am

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At bottom, the founders did not trust everyman. Of course, alcohol was consumed in much higher quantities back then, and with more frequency. So just in case the besotted elected Aaron Burr as president, the sober electoral college could override. Today's voters are much more likely to cast their votes with a sober mind, but with a diminished one. The electoral college may not be necessary to protect democracy from the besotted, but the dimwitted. And no constitutional amendment can fix that.

- rayward

November 6, 2012 at 7:00am

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If one is going to elect the chief executive, it's hard to come up with an argument for not doing so by direct popular vote, and I heartily endorse the compact as a means to this end. What would make more sense to me, though, is to have the House of Representatives elect the President from within their ranks at the beginning of each term. This would give us something resembling the single government that parliamentary systems enjoy. Of course, this would only make sense if we also had electoral reform for the house, ending political inspired gerrymandering and the all-money-all-the-time electoral circus we have now with election funding reform. So, ok, I'm dreaming. I'll settle for the compact.

- IowaBeauty

November 6, 2012 at 7:33am

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I'm not so crazy about majority control and I like things like courts and the electoral college which diminish its significance. Go Blue!

- Nusholtz

November 6, 2012 at 7:52am

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JakeH--thanks for the catch. It's fixed now.

- Timothy Noah

November 6, 2012 at 9:31am

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Amending the Constitution to get rid of the Electoral College is extremely unlikely, as three quarters of the states would have to approve, and more than a quarter of states would perceive themselves as likely to benefit from the current system. The interstate compact route could conceivably work, but I won't hold my breath. I'd rather devote energy to a constitutional amendment to override Citizens United, empowering Congress to legislate regarding campaign finance (within certain limits), and requiring all states to draw congressional and other legislative districts by nonpartisan committee. These changes would mean more.

- bjones

November 6, 2012 at 9:55am

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Obviously the EC is archaic, undemocratic, and illogical; let me just raise one question. How much more would elections cost if the parties had to compete for every vote in every state? Perhaps as noted above, there should be an amendment overriding Citizens United, but that is much less likely to happen.

- stanmvp48

November 6, 2012 at 10:31am

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I don't necessarily disagree with Tim's point, but as bjones notes, small states do have something to lose. And small states, especially western states, could become more disenfranchised than their already libertarian-leaning politics tend to make them, as candidates focus on high population areas to win the popular vote. Maybe some whacky compromise like moving the capital out of it's mountain ensconced enclave closer to the west might get states to move towards a popular vote (hey, I said whacky, there's probably more sane ideas..., just say'in).

- jet

November 6, 2012 at 10:42am

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The "Founding Fathers" also knew that the majority of the people at that time could neither read nor write. The Electors were to represent the people when the important vote would be held.

- ADROSSIN

November 6, 2012 at 10:54am

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As an English teacher in Japan, I have confused many a student by trying to explain the Electoral College. For starters, "Why is it called a "college" and "Just who are the electors?" It goes downhill from there! In paragraph 7, "were the only presidents to lost" needs a little editorial attention. Thanks for an amusing and inspiring piece.

- Nick Carty

November 6, 2012 at 10:57am

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"small states do have something to lose" Indeed, looking just at the electoral arithmetic they do. But I really wonder if at some point the small states might wake up to the fact that rather than have an outsized vote to lose, they mostly have no vote at all. When is the last time a candidate paid any attention at all to Wyoming or South Dakota or Alaska or Vermont? The truth is that if we had national campaigns, given the lower media costs in less populated areas, a candidate in a close Presidential race might choose to make issues concerning rural states a theme in their campaign. Right now you could just as well live in Russia as Wyoming, as far as Presidential attention is concerned. So, yeah, your vote might count for 3X what a Californian's does, unless you're taken completely for granted, so it doesn't count at all. Where the constitution really bites and gives small (population-wise) states enormous extra clout is in the Senate. That'll never change, written as it is, and given the vested interested of small states in keeping it that way. It's just plain wrong, of course, but that never stopped anyone from finding a reason that something to their advantage is the way things should be.

- IowaBeauty

November 6, 2012 at 12:16pm

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What is meant by "small states"? Small in population? Small in size? Small in importance? I don't think small states have anything to lose anymore than large population states have to gain. In fact the EC essentially favors large states because of the proportionality assigned. In fact, I think abolishing the electoral college would actually make it more likely that Presidential candidates would spend more time in all of the states if they had to work for votes and both parties would be opened up to other third party challenges. The two party system favors the EC because it essentially locks in their long term dominance and viability. Why are Ohio's voters more important than Mississippi? Or Virginia's more important than Wyoming? What is frustrating is if you live in a party dominated state, your Presidential vote is essentially inconsequential. Living in Lousiana, I could vote Blue until I'm blue in the face and it wouldn't change the EC outcome one bit since it's 99% GOP. I can vote for anyone on the ballot and it makes no difference. So why get excited? Apparently the only voters who seem to count are the uninformed undecided voter in swing states. Never mind the rest of America. If anything, this election should be a referendum to change the EC and get rid of it. But the chances of a Constitutional ban on Gay Marriage is far more likely. Sadly. Those who defend the EC claim it prevents mob-rule but all it does is really enforce small-faction control. And as we have seen numerous times, the EC has not prevented uniformed Americans from voting dumb in the past nor will it prevent them from voting dumb in the future.

- singlspeed

November 6, 2012 at 12:25pm

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I'll defend the disproportionate distribution of electoral power, both in the Senate and in the Electoral College. It's what keeps large parts of rural America from being treated like colonial possessions by urban America. TNR readers, I suspect, are disproportionately distributed in larger states, so I suspect this argument will fall on deaf ears. The problem is with the winner take all distribution of electors in most states, and with the existence of the fillibuster in the Senate. Fix those two issues, and you would make much of the gross obstructionism out of the system. I'd love to see electoral votes distributed house seat by house seat, with two at large electors from each state to reflect the statewide results. And both of those issues (electoral votes and the fillibuster) can be fixed without a constitutional amendment. It only takes 12 states to say no to a constitutional change, and there are far more states than that that benefit from the existing system. As for fighting over small states, how about New Mexico? The problem isn't size, it's the fact that most small states have such lopsided party registrations that nobody wastes their time.

- gwcross

November 6, 2012 at 12:38pm

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Would you have runoff if nobody gets 50%. I always how a Lincoln Douglas runoff would have turned out

- stanmvp48

November 6, 2012 at 12:40pm

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I just want to trademark this phrase before it's too late, in the event of a narrow Obama victory: "Bush proved that mandates don't matter."

- boyski

November 6, 2012 at 4:17pm

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