The New Republic

Anecdote from the ground in Northern Virginia: My freshman Democratic House of Delegates member was opposed by a Republican challenger chosen by the state GOP with no formal nominating process, who seems to have raised a ton of money but only after the last filing deadline for pre-election reporting, and who blitzed the district with signs and campaign literature that never identified him as a Republican. The entire GOP campaign in my district amounted to a political dirty trick, but the "(D)" next to my delegate's name seems to have been all the campaign he needed to win big.

However, to date the Democratic revival in the Old Dominion is driven primarily by two factors: The personalities of individual Democratic candidates; and visible failures by Republicans. On a statewide level, charismatic Democrats have to work very hard and be opposed by an absolute buffoon just to eke out the tiniest of majorities. That is not a recipe for long-term success here, though Gov. Kaine in particular is having some success in crafting a sustainable statewide coalition willing to vote Democratic even when a local political superstar is not on the ballot. However, this is bad news for Democratic presidential hopes in the Commonwealth. Democrats will have to nominate someone other than Hillary who can appeal to people like Warner or Webb have done, and Republicans will have to nominate someone who really alienates independents, for Virginia to be in play.

The long-term good news from yesterday in Virginia is not the slim chance that a Democrat could win the presidential vote in 2008; it's that Democratic control of one legislative house makes it very likely that Democrats will gain at least one, possibly two solid congressional seats after the next redistricting. That could be huge for Democrats' ability to maintain their majority in the U.S. House.

- rhubarbs

November 7, 2007 at 1:39pm

Jim Webb for VP. Lock up VA and put WV and NC in play as well.

- teplukhin2you

November 7, 2007 at 2:05pm

Rhubarbs, I think you're mostly right, except that the republican party in VA is notable for its ability to promote absolute buffoons -- they don't only pop up by chance. The party structure is overfilled with activists from the wild Dixie-ish southwestern areas. Note their choice to nominate their senate candidate by convention, not primary -- guaranteed to select a purist loser like Gilmore instead of a moderate who could compete against M Warner. With friends like the VA R's have they don't even need enemies. there's a little biased hope on my part, too ... VA is my home state, I'm voting there in '08 and want my vote to count!

- tnr1.com

November 7, 2007 at 2:58pm

Having lived in VA until 2004, it is getting bluer every day because of the NoVa effect, which now comes close to outvoting the rest of the state.

HRC will not win VA unless she picks Webb, and maybe not even then.  But I could be wrong.  In any case, VA is very much in play, now and in teh future.

- butchie b

November 7, 2007 at 3:53pm

I'm also a NoVa resident.  Two of the four new state senators are from Tidewater (Hampton/Norfolk) and two from NoVa.  These two fast growing urban areas should dominate state politics after the next census.  There were many contests where the Democrat lost by less than 1% so there is a lot more room for Virginia to turn bluer.  In my senate district the 4% that went to the Independent would have easily put the Democrat over the top.

- sdmcleod

November 7, 2007 at 5:06pm