THE STUMP JANUARY 20, 2012
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So no question that Rick Santorum had an objectively good debate last night. He leveled what was easily the toughest critique against the Massachusetts health care plan that Mitt Romney has faced to date. And he’d clearly done his homework on Newt Gingrich, too—nailing him on his decade-long sympathy for individual mandates and for being AWOL during the House banking scandal, when congressmen routinely overdrew their checking accounts without penalty. Santorum also managed to sound compassionate while toeing a hard line on immigration, then bashed both Romney and Gingrich for having supported a “pathway to citizenship” (what the right derides as “amnesty”) for illegal aliens. Santorum nicely distilled his theme for the night when he griped that Romney and Gingrich had both played too much “footsie with the left.”
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All of which left me wondering: What on earth was he thinking? Given his standing in the polls—in the mid-teens in South Carolina, roughly tied with Ron Paul for a distant third place there—Santorum has basically no chance of winning the state’s primary on Saturday. There are really only two possible winners in South Carolina: Gingrich and Romney. Now, if Romney wins, he will effectively wrap up the GOP nomination, since Florida is next on the primary schedule, and it’s a state where Romney is currently leading, and whose 10 media markets make his financial resources an overwhelming advantage. If Gingrich wins South Carolina, on the other hand, then the race gets scrambled, and, well, you never know. Gingrich is such a combustible candidate that anything could happen. He could self-immolate at any moment, giving Santorum the one-on-one matchup against Romney he supposedly craves.
Which is to say, if you’re Rick Santorum, your only hope is to have Romney lose and Newt win on Saturday. And yet Santorum spent half has time kneecapping the former speaker, making a Romney win more likely.
Perhaps, as Santorum confessed when the candidates were asked about their biggest mistake of the race, Santorum is just happy to have made the “final four” and is no longer thinking strategically. But, then, his campaign sure invested a lot of effort in opposition research for a candidate who’s throwing in the towel. It’s truly mystifying. In a way, the lapse epitomizes the GOP field’s approach to Romney for the past six months. Pretty much any time they had a choice between making Romney’s path to the nomination harder or easier, they almost always chose the latter, albeit inadvertently. Santorum's version last night was only the latest instance.
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9 comments
One explanation is that Santorum has determined that Romney will not get the nomination no matter the result in SC and that the race will eventually come down to Santorum and Gingrich. What Santorum is preparing for is that matchup. Besides, it's difficult to believe that Santorum could ever defeat Romney if the race came down to them. But Gingrich? He has so much baggage it's cheaper for him to fly in those private jets he prefers. And Gingrich is the candidate that the Republican base prefers because the base believes he has great debating skills, skills the base believes will reveal that Obama is the idiot they believe him to be. Given that preference for Gingrich by the base, and of course assuming that Romney will not get the nomination, then it makes perfect sense for Santorum to go after Gingrich now.
- rayward
January 20, 2012 at 8:33am
Au contraire, Noam. Santorum's strategy makes perfect sense if one assumes, as I think Santorum does, that Newt is going to win in South Carolina. That does indeed scramble the race, and Santorum wants to be in a position to maximize his chances at the expense of Newt in the future. Santorum is not bowing out, he's thinking long game.
- timteeter
January 20, 2012 at 9:23am
Santorum's strategy makes perfect sense. He knows he's a bit of a long shot. But he was the beneficiary of a late surge in Iowa, and a late surge in SC, even if it just beats expectations and doesn't provide an actual victory, would give him further momentum. He obviously believes that Newt's marital past could (well, should) weaken him, or that some other Newtonian pronouncement might sink the Gingrich campaign. Combine that with evangelic support, and Santorum remains perfectly viable.
- polcereal
January 20, 2012 at 10:46am
Don't disagree with the thrust of these comments. but santorum can beat expectations without attacking newt. should have trained all his fire on romney. could also have set himself up as the logical conservative alternative to romney purely by focusing on romney. he has/had zero chance of winning SC given his numbers 36 hours out, so no point in focusing on newt in that debate.
- Noam Scheiber
January 20, 2012 at 12:15pm
I disagree with Noam. I do not think Romney has wrapped it up if he wins in SC. Now, if he thumped everyone in SC that would be another matter, but he is not going to win a resounding victory. Mitt has to show he can shatter his 35% ceiling. Edging above that in the state across the street from his home doesn't prove that. Even if he wins SC and FL, if those are still close I also think that at this point with only 4 left, any candidate who can raise enough funds to meet basic campaign expenses and poll above 15% has no reason at all to drop out, as long as the front-runner is not pulling in many more delegates than he would get from a 4-way tie.
- JEFF FREY
January 20, 2012 at 12:55pm
Santorum also has the advantage of running as himself. He has a coherent philosophy and his criticisms of the others are based on that. That coherence is also one of his selling points. If he is more tactical in who to attack, he may lose that. Now it is down to 3 guys who know who they are, plus Romney.
- JEFF FREY
January 20, 2012 at 12:57pm
I think it is also worth factoring into anyone's calculations that Santorum actually wants to be President, whereas for Newt getting elected President is in fact (as I have always believed) only plan B. Sure, he dreams of it, but in his heart of hearts he knows he can't get elected. He really just wants a good showing in the primaries, maybe even get the nomination. That way he gets all the benefits of being a "national figure" who can make an even bigger pile of money without the messy business of actually governing. Newt is, and has always been, just a more sophisticated Herman Cain.
- timteeter
January 20, 2012 at 3:18pm
Santorum secretly hopes Romney will hand him the AG post. (rofl) Unless you are obsessed with making all abortions illegal (and they are still a force out there), there is no reason to vote for Rick Santorum - and I assume he genuinely disdains Gingrich. Santorum has posted twice at RedState in the past week to prove he is a genuine fiscal and national security conservative, and the response was NOT friendly although the strictly enforced comment guidelines make RedState a very congenial conservative website.
- K2K
January 20, 2012 at 5:44pm
Watching the debate. I was more impressed by Ron Paul proposal to reduce our military expenditures all over the world. Why do we need to keep our troops in Europe, Germany, Japan, South Korea . Why not use that money to cure ills in USA? Schooling, create jobs trhu investment in infrastructure, and more. No the candidates spent time with personal issues, rather than national issues. Somehow I was greatly disappointed with Santorum. He tried hard to put down the front runners Romney an Gingrich. On the other hand Ron Paul looked relaxed and easy. This debate on CNN was well handled. At the end of the day I will be choosing a president. Thus far Obama looks good. But I wish a strong candidate opponent. Gingrich will be great. He shows grit and his blood boils.
- JAIMECHUCH
January 20, 2012 at 11:05pm