The latest batch of polls shows Romney pulling even or slightly ahead of Huckabee in Iowa, and the Democratic race there either tied or with Clinton slightly ahead. Perhaps more importantly:
If all second-tier Democratic candidates fall short and their supporters switch to other candidates, Edwards gains the most, rolling up a clear lead at 33 percent to 26 percent each for Clinton and Obama. ...
Of note: more Iowa Democrats have a favorable impression of him--and fewer have an unfavorable impression of him--than any other candidate.
For what it's worth, I had a long conversation with a middle-aged Army veteran at that Edwards event yesterday. He said he was going to caucus for Biden--really liked his federalism plan for Iraq--but figured he'd end up with Edwards if Biden wasn't viable. (He was very high on Edwards's approach to healthcare and corporate interests.)
Also, McLatchy says don't look for a big Bhutto effect:
The assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto did not raise the profile of terrorism as an issue in the U.S. presidential campaign in Iowa, the McClatchy-MSNBC poll found.
Democrats still rank terrorism a very low priority. The survey found 5 percent of Iowa Democrats calling it their top concern, up from 1 percent earlier in the month, but with virtually no change during three nights of poll calls that started the evening before the assassination and continued the next two evenings when news of the murder dominated national media.
Republicans still rank it highly, with 29 percent calling it their top issue, down from 31 percent in the previous poll Dec. 3-6.
--Noam Scheiber