Harry Enten

538 Is All Wrong About My Turnout Projections
Conventional outlets don't get to look at voter files. I do.
May 08, 2014

Conventional outlets don't get to look at voter files. I do.

What Black Turnout for Obama in 2012 Means for the GOP in 2016
November 13, 2012

Obama did even better with black voters in 2012. They may play an even larger role in 2016.

Daily Breakdown: Obama Leads Out West
September 21, 2012

The big picture remains that Obama leads by around four points, with a similar edge across the critical battleground states.   The poll most likely to scream “headline” is Gallup, which is so far out of line from the other registered voter surveys that I don’t even know what to say about it. Obama leads by about 7 points among registered voters, and, no, the methodological criticisms you’ve heard don’t explain a gap of that magnitude. As Harry Enten of the Guardian (@ForecasterEnten) tweeted today, we would probably blow this off as a clear outlier if it was named something other than Gallup.

Will Obama Have a Turnout Problem?
June 13, 2012

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Newsflash: None of the Recent 'Game-Changers' Have Changed the Polling
June 12, 2012

Since Romney secured the nomination in mid-April, the horse race has been rattled by supposed game-changers, ranging from Obama’s decision to endorse gay marriage to terrible new jobs numbers. Political pundits engrossed in the twists and turns of the campaign agree that events and poor messaging have conspired to reduce Obama’s chances.

Is Toomey Too Looney?
May 12, 2010

Harry Enten marvels at the possibility that Pat Toomey could win a Senate election in Pennsylvania: Toomey ranked more conservative than 97.9% of all United States legislators since 1995. He had a more conservative voting record than J.D Hayworth, Jim DeMint, and was about as conservative as Jesse Helms.