Nate Cohn

Staff Writer

All of a sudden, this map has crazy lights in North Dakota.

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I see a lot of red and blue on electoral maps. Gold? Not so often. And yet that’s exactly what you see in the middle of Maine on the Atlas town map of the 2012 presidential election.It turns out that a small Maine town unanimously voted for a write-in candidate. That’s weird enough. Even more mysterious: the town appears out of nowhere.

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Scott Walker Could Reunite the GOP

Unlike Chris Christie or Ted Cruz, Scott Walker can appeal to the entire party.

There’s a real case that Chris Christie is the front-runner for the 2016 Republican nomination. That’s pretty remarkable: He’s for gun control, hails from the northeast, pals around with the president, struggles to call himself a conservative, and doesn’t even hold 20 percent in the polls. He has solid name recognition, but at this point it’s safe to say his appeal is limited.

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It wasn’t too long ago that the Democrats seemed poised to make gains in next year’s midterm elections. Some even thought it was plausible that Democrats could retake the House, despite the GOP’s enormous structural advantages. But a mere 33 days since the government shutdown ended, the Democratic “wave” has subsided—and it’s unclear what comes next.

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I have a long list of methodological issues with PPP polls. Today, the list goes onto a second page.It turns out that PPP permits respondents who give “all 1s” to every question, which distorts their results.

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A map showing Super Typhoon Haiyan superimposed over the continental United States has gone viral. It's all wrong.Here's the image, supposedly (actually?) created by the Red Cross: Now, here's the Philippines over the United States:And here's Haiyan with respect to the Philippines:

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I live on county maps. They offer an accessible, yet incredibly rich way to understand the diversity of our country.But they’re also imperfect. An unfamiliar eye might draw the wrong lessons, like concluding that the country is overwhelmingly Republican.

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How To Read PPP's Polls

I’ve written at length about PPP’s troubling methodological choices. The firm failed to disclose important methodological decisions, offered inconsistent or baffling explanations, and continues to employ an unscientific and inconsistent approach. Altogether, it’s difficult to distinguish PPP’s polling from weighting toward an intended result. Now the question is: “how should we use PPP going forward?”It’s a tough question.

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It’s not often that the classification “Super Typhoon”—the equivalent of a strong Category 4 or 5 Hurricane, like Katrina or Andrew—fails to convey the intensity of a tropical cyclone. But “Haiyan,” a Super Typhoon about to make landfall over the Philippines, is no ordinary Super Typhoon. Haiyan makes Katrina look like a run-of-the-mill storm. It may be the most intense tropical storm in recorded history. But there’s a catch: We may never know for sure.

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Ken Cuccinelli was justifiably written off as dead: Thirty-eight consecutive surveys showed McAuliffe ahead, ultimately by about 7.2 point in the final HuffPost Model Estimate. This was the race that was supposed to highlight how the Tea Party and the shutdown endangered the GOP’s iron grip on the House, offering the perfect contrast to Christie’s rout in New Jersey. But in the end, McAuliffe won by a slight margin: Only 2.15 points, at the moment. It doesn’t bode well for Democrats in 2014.

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