POLITICS JULY 8, 2011
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Over the past week, President Obama has directly entered the debate about raising the debt ceiling and cutting the budget deficit. Of course, the debate is about something altogether different and far more important—the century-long battle between the two major political parties over the proper role of government in American economic life. But what has gone largely unnoticed throughout this process is that the meaning of “tax reform” has undergone a profound, if gradual, transformation. In varying degrees, the term has evolved from a once bipartisan agenda for raising revenues more fairly and with less economic distortion into a new way for conservatives to “starve the beast”—beast being the metaphor some conservatives use for government, starvation a shorthand for tax cuts.
Traditionally, spending can take place not only in its usual and easily recognized form—cash outlays—but also through the tax code. A succession of presidents, senators, and representatives—from both parties—discovered that it is far easier politically to promote activities they favor through tax breaks than it is through direct spending. If you want to encourage historic preservation, energy conservation, research, housing investment, transportation, education, health care, and much, much more—give a tax break of one sort or another to people or businesses who do the right thing. That is so much easier than asking Congress to appropriate money each year. Direct expenditures make the government look bigger by raising outlays. Tax breaks, in contrast, make government look smaller by lowering revenues—and they can last indefinitely. As a result, the tax code is now a veritable groaning board of so-called “tax expenditures”—173 of them, according to a tabulation in the 2012 Budget of the U.S. Government.
When considering spending cuts, most observers realize that a meat-axe approach is foolish—some expenditures make sense, some don’t. The same is true, of course, of tax expenditures. Some were ill-considered from the start—for example, credits to encourage production of ethanol have increased the demand for grain and raised its price, which in turn has caused widespread hunger in poor nations and actually increased emission of greenhouse gases. Other tax breaks survive from when they may have served some purpose. With oil selling for near $100 a barrel, tax breaks are not needed now to encourage its extraction, if they ever were. Still other provisions promote meritorious objectives—often, alas through means that are inefficient or unfair. Charity is virtuous, but the charitable contributions deduction, which reduces taxes of millionaires more than it reduces taxes of bus drivers if each give $1 to charity, seems a dubious way to promote virtue.
What this all means is that some tax breaks should be scrapped, some should be replaced with direct spending, some should be replaced with fairer or simpler tax breaks, and some should be left alone. A judicious pruning of the jungle of current provisions would simplify the tax system, achieve agreed objectives more efficiently and fairly, and raise some much needed revenue.
But that, unfortunately, is not what “tax reform,” as it is now used in the deficit reduction debate, has come to mean for the majority of Republicans in Congress. Earlier this year, Representative Paul Ryan proposed a deficit reduction plan that, in the name of tax reform, repealed most itemized deductions. The resulting revenue would not be used to pay down the deficit, however, but to cut tax rates, mostly for the benefit of comparatively well-to-do Americans. House Republicans supported the Ryan plan unanimously, as did all but four Senate Republicans. In the current debate, some Republicans are again warming to the idea of sweeping away many special tax provisions. But again, Republicans are arguing that most—and in some cases, all—of the added revenue should go towards cutting personal and corporate tax rates, not for deficit reduction and not for achieving important social and economic objectives more efficiently and fairly.
Genuine income tax reform is very much needed. Some of the deficit-reduction commissions embraced such reforms, including taxing income from investments and from work at the same rates. But the simple repeal of all deductions, credits, and allowances, when coupled with lower tax rates, is a perversion of genuine tax reform. It is simply “starve the beast” in a new guise.
Henry J. Aaron is a Bruce and Virginia MacLaury Senior Fellow at the The Brookings Institution.
5 comments
And as any observer knows, tax rates, once lowered, are extremely difficult to raise, whereas tax expenditures grow like kudzu. It's not taxes per se that conservatives are fighting, but rather progressive taxes. Consider: how many conservatives opposed the whopping increase in the flat (and very regressive) payroll tax? Right, none. Indeed, recent studies have revealed that the US tax system (federal, state, and local) is progressive only when comparing the bottom to the top of the income scale, that when comparing the middle to the top, it's flat; indeed, a segment in the upper middle pays a higher marginal rate than the very top. In other words, conservatives have already succeeded in draining the tax system of its progressive feature, and the quest now is to make a de facto flat tax system a de jure flat tax system. And they are getting lots of help not just from the Ryan proposal but from supposedly neutral (ideologically) proposals such as Bowles-Simpson.
- rayward
July 8, 2011 at 7:25am
And this battle isn't just an ideological battle. Consider: over the past 25 years as the whopping payroll tax increase adopted in the 1980s has taken effect, the after-tax incomes of those at the bottom and in the middle have been flat or even declining, a combination of flat wages and increasing payroll taxes. By comparison, the after tax incomes of those at the top have gone way up. Politically this has been devastating to Democrats because it's Democrats who most voters associate with tax increases, the tax increases those at the bottom and in the middle have been experiencing over the past 25 years while those at the top, who don't pay any or pay relatively little payroll taxes, have enjoyed enormous tax cuts as the top income tax rates have been lowered. It's the worst of both worlds for Democrats, and it least partly explains voters' distrust of Democrats when it comes to taxes.
- rayward
July 8, 2011 at 7:51am
One last comment. Democrats who were in Congress in the 1980s say little or nothing about the whopping increase in payroll taxes that was adopted. And for good reason, because they can have but one of two explanations: they were complicit or they are stupid. It's like the trial lawyer's trick to destroy the credibility of a witness who changes his or her story: were you lying then or are you lying now.
- rayward
July 8, 2011 at 8:00am
Progressive rates are an efficient way to raise revenue, tax incentives are inefficient and more costly than direct spending as a way to motivate conduct, and higher top rates with lower bottom rates with no change in revenue will stimulate the economy. On Diane Rehm this morning, one of the guests explained that Obama's strategy was to throw huge deficit reduction numbers including tax increases and then after the plan is rejected because of tax increases, say, "Look, I tried to get something done, but they aren't interested." Sounds like a good strategy.
- Nusholtz
July 8, 2011 at 12:07pm
rayward: " Indeed, recent studies have revealed that the US tax system (federal, state, and local) is progressive only when comparing the bottom to the top of the income scale, that when comparing the middle to the top, it's flat;" As I've noted many times, according to the OECD we have the most progressive tax system in the world. The reason our system is so progressive because our middle class pays a small fraction of what tax bill compared to the EU. As I've noted previously, Sweden and Finland tax the working poor at nearly 40% of their income. Our middle class also pay a fraction of what the EU pays in taxes. In the US, the working poor (bottom 40%) have NEGATIVE effective income tax rates. In other words, they MAKE money on taxes.
- seattleeng
July 10, 2011 at 5:57pm