POLITICS MARCH 3, 2010
-
Read Later
READ LATERAvailable only to subscribers. SUBSCRIBE TODAY
-
Listen
ARTICLE AUDIO
- Font Size

In his speech today in the White House East Room, President Obama clearly indicated that he is going to press for a comprehensive, and not a piecemeal or “skinny,” health care reform bill. He also made it abundantly clear that he will accept, if necessary, a party-line simple majority vote in the House and the Senate in order to get the bill through. Reconciliation here we come.
Obama’s speech represents a major departure from the politics of his presidential campaign and of his first year in office. In his campaign, Obama pledged to defy partisan gridlock and to “change the way Washington works.” During the campaign, some liberal commentators believed that he was merely employing a clever tactic to highlight the rigid partisanship of his opponents. “If we understand Obama's approach as a means, and not the limit of what he understands about American politics, it has great promise as a theory of change,” Mark Schmitt wrote in The American Prospect.
But it is now evident that Obama’s approach was what he understood about American politics—it was the guiding light gleaned from his years as an Illinois state senator—and he planned to apply it to Congress. And it was, of course, nonsense. Republicans were able to use Obama’s naiveté about their motives to undermine his initiatives. As Noam Scheiber explains in his profile of Rahm Emanuel, the principal obstacle to getting health care reform through Congress last year was Obama’s dogged insistence last summer that Senate Finance Chairman Max Baucus continue to plug away at nailing down a bipartisan agreement. What Obama got was not an amicable agreement but a summer of discontent, highlighted by Senator Charles Grassley’s denunciation of Democratic “death panels” and by the emergence of the Tea Party movement.
But it’s not an easy job being president. It took Bill Clinton most of his first term to figure out how to do domestic and foreign policy. Like Clinton, Obama has stumbled, but his slip-ups have been more dramatic because, with the economy cratering and two wars raging, the stakes have been higher from the first.
However, in Obama’s speech today, and in his artful performance at the health care summit last week, he showed that he has learned something from his first year in office. Obama is now using the rhetoric of bipartisanship as Schmitt and other liberals thought he was doing in 2008: He is using it to paint Republicans as intransigent. He clearly no longer believes that a bipartisan agreement on health care is possible.
Moreover, he is now drawing clear lines between the politics of Democrats and the politics of Republicans. "Republicans," he said, "believe the answer is to loosen regulations on the insurance industry--whether it's state consumer protections or minimum standards for the kind of insurance they can sell. I disagree with that approach. I'm concerned that this would only give the insurance industry even freer rein to raise premiums and deny care.” And in summing up, Obama said that that if Republicans “truly believe that less regulation would lead to higher quality, more affordable health insurance, then they should vote against the proposal I’ve put forward.”
Those are strong words. They make clear that Democrats and Republicans don’t share the same politics. Obama portrayed Democrats as the patrons of a “middle class that gets squeezed” by higher insurance costs. Republicans, on the other hand, were tarred as friends of the insurance industry who are willing to let the WellPoints of the world run amok.
Where the speech still rang somewhat hollow was in Obama’s presentation of his own policy. Here’s how he put it:
I don’t believe we should give government bureaucrats or insurance company bureaucrats more control over health care in America. I believe it’s time to give the American people more control over their own health insurance. I don’t believe we can afford to leave life-and-death decisions about health care to the discretion of insurance company executives alone. I believe that doctors and nurses like the ones in this room should be free to decide what’s best for their patients. The proposal I’ve put forward gives Americans more control over their health care by holding insurance companies more accountable.
Well, yes, I suppose, we don’t want a government bureaucrat—one of those evil fellows with a green eyeshade sitting behind a desk piled high with unread complaints from angry citizens—to have control over our health care. But this kind of formulation concedes too much to the anti-statist rhetoric of the Tea Parties.
Let’s be clear about what national health care reform does. It narrows peoples’ choices, and limits their control over their health care, in one very important way: It requires them to buy health insurance. That is how social insurance works. You couldn’t have Social Security or Medicare if everyone eligible didn’t have to sign up. But by virtue of this requirement, the government—bureaucrats and all—improves, and in some cases, vastly improves, the choices Americans have in obtaining health insurance. Health care reform doesn’t bypass government; it enlists it on the people’s behalf.
Obama has now adopted a strategy that will allow him to get his programs through Congress, but he doesn’t yet have the vocabulary that will allow him to convince wide swaths of Americans that these programs are essential. And that’s not an uncommon failing. It’s not as if he lacks a vocabulary that other liberals or Democrats (like the writers on these pages or his fellow politicians) possess. How to frame government initiatives in a way that acknowledges but also overcomes American anti-statism has been, and remains, a major political challenge for Democrats. But in beginning to draw clear distinctions between the Democratic and Republican approaches, Obama has taken the first important step toward meeting that challenge.
And let me say one other thing. I hate political predictions, and I have certainly heard my fill of them lately. The recent Conservative Political Action Conference echoed with predictions that the Republicans would obliterate the Democrats in November 2010. And the esteemed Charlie Cook has recently pronounced the Democrats to be toast in 2010. But—and there are some “ifs” coming—if Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid can get the health care bill through Congress and on to Obama’s desk, and if Obama has truly learned his lesson and begins to draw a sharp distinction between the Democrats’ approach and the Republican approach, and if he begins to propose initiatives that highlight this distinction, the Democrats will retain the House and Senate in November. They will probably lose seats, but they won’t get obliterated.
John B. Judis is a senior editor of The New Republic and a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
For more TNR, become a fan on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.
19 comments
So Obama behaves consistent with how Schmitt and others have suggested is his "theory of change," and Judis doesn't conclude that they were right, but rather that Obama simply shifted his theory of change. Ugh. Obama's approach to "bipartisanship" has always been framed in this two-step way. If you take the other side's ideas seriously, you may benefit substantively and politically. And at the end of the day, if the opposition remains intransigent, you expose their intransigence. That's exactly what's happened here. Reread the Schmitt piece and his explanation of both the mundane and cosmic elements of the Obama "theory of change." It's exactly what has happened here. As for the Rahm vs Obama on health care issue, the bipartisan wrangling is what allowed Democratic moderates and centrists to sign on without Republican cover. If Rahm had his way, we'd have either passed a "skinny" bill or we'd be abandoning reform altogether right now. Judis' stylistic critiques of Obama are becoming more and more tedious. Maybe it's time for another stale piece on the white working class.
- RerunStubs
March 3, 2010 at 4:26pm
I thought this was great. Bring me more such tedium. And let us indeed hope that Obama has learned his lesson. If so, and if the Democrats simply devote the rest of the year to popular bills that either get passed or opposed and prevented from passing by the Republicans, the prospects in November are excellent. My ONLY quibble with Judis in this piece is for taking Obama to task for employing the "empowerment" rhetoric of the Republicans and the Tea Partyers. He isn't conceding a thing. He is in this case using the sort of non-wonkish polititical rhetoric that the Democrats need to succeed. I take it as a good sign. He is co-opting the Republicans' so far successful rhetoric in opposition and I hope he keeps it up. If the Democrats can only keep track of the difference between politics and policy, they should be able to clean the Republicans' clocks next election.
- roidubouloi
March 3, 2010 at 4:44pm
What is the lesson that he has supposedly learned? He already supported a partisan effort to pass comprehensive reform that was scuttled only because of the Brown victory in Massachusetts. And now he is regrouping and (again) supporting a partisan effort to pass comprehensive reform. The whole essence of the Obama "theory of change" that is in question is that you need some level of initial engagement with those who disagree in order to end up in a more combative place in the long run. Judis is trying to bifurcate two sides of the same coin as if they were different strategies altogether. "Changing the way Washington works" doesn't simply mean fetishizing "bipartisanship." It means taking everyone's ideas seriously, giving them an honest airing out, attempting to find common ground, but - contra Rahm and the other beltway bedwetters - not compromising on the goal of effecting meaningful change in a vain and empty search for centrism.
- RerunStubs
March 3, 2010 at 5:21pm
"It requires "them" [quotes added] to buy health insurance. That is how social insurance works." Ah, the mandate. There's a reason why the Republicans didn't beat the Democrats over the head with the mandate: because the Republicans know it's the one reason the public would get behind HCR. That's right. The Democrats may want to pussyfoot around it, but the Republicans wouldn't if the roles were reversed. Why would the mandate inspire public support for HCR: so they (and we all know who "they" are) won't continue to let us (and we know who "us" is) pay for their health care by irresponsibly not buying health insurance and then, when sick or injured, showing up in the ER for "free" care, paid for by us in the form of higher premiums on our health insurance. It's right in front of their noses, if the Democrats are serious about HCR.
- raylward
March 3, 2010 at 5:33pm
I am with rerun on this, except I don't find the piece tedious at all, I thought it was laid out well, but as rerun pointed out if Kennedy hadn't died, or if the election hadn't been postponed when Mass. overturned their own law, the bill would have passed already. ray, I do have reservations about the mandate without the public option. It rankles me to have to buy from a for profit insurance company as a mere condition of living. A public option gives me a real choice. I am willing to live without it, and with the mandate just to pass the bill, but personally I don't think it is as big as necessity as people imagine. Frankly, I think the vast majority of people want to have insurance as a protection against bankruptcy and for daily piece of mind. Mandating is not truly necessary except as a carrot to wave in front of the insurance industry.
- blackton
March 3, 2010 at 6:24pm
Strange version of history, Rerun. Obama spent months trying to negotiate something that even one Republican would support. It was pointless because they were negotiating in bad faith every step of the way. More than one Republican let slip that he or she wouldn't vote for the bill even with the changes they were asking for. Because the whole point of the Republican position was simply to prevent Obama and the Democrats from achieving anything that the public might approve of or benefit from. Pure, unrestrained partisan warfare every step of the way. What Obama needs to have learned is that, whatever the rhetoric about compromise and bipartisanship, there is no possibility of conciliating Republicans. They must be beaten to a pulp in the court of public opinion, all the while mouthing soothing words about cooperation and blah, blah, blah. The only way Obama is going to change the way Washington works is by defeating Republicans politically, every minute of every day, whether an election is imminent or not. Mandating is necessary, blackton, if we are going to cover everyone regardless of their medical condition. Otherwise, if people were assured access to coverage when already sick, everyone, and I mean EVERYONE, would simply defer buying insurance until they actually were sick and the cost would be astronomical. Indeed, it wouldn't be insurance any more.
- roidubouloi
March 3, 2010 at 6:57pm
roid - Five Republicans just voted for the jobs bill, so it's demonstrably incorrect that no one will ever cross party lines. It wasn't obvious that no Republicans would vote for the health care bill until Snowe backed off of her own committee vote. That's the whole point; you engage, and having done so, you then have the political cover to confront. It's not an either/or proposition, as you and Judis are suggesting. We know they were negotiating in bad faith every step of the way because of how the negotiations turned out. Ex ante, everyone was guessing.
- RerunStubs
March 3, 2010 at 7:38pm
I wasn't guessing, Rerun. For anyone paying attention, the Republicans had declared their strategy of obstruction rather openly. Not to mention that this was essentially a repeat of the strategy in opposition to Clinton's plan. How stupid of the Democrats to be unable to see th obvious. The only question mark was whether one or two Republicans might break ranks. Big deal. It is one thing to go through the motions in case you can gain something, but actually to rely on any Republican cooperation was folly. They should have been ready to go with a plan that satisfied all the Democrats necessary by July 4 and then taken it to a vote. The only time a Republican will break party discipline is if persuaded that the political cost of not doing so is too high. Therefore, the only way to get any Republican votes, if it matters, is not to negotiate with them but to back them into a political corner where they cannot afford to pay the price.
- roidubouloi
March 3, 2010 at 10:32pm
That is what happened by the way with Bunning's retreat and with the Republicans who broke ranks on the teeny-weeny jobs bill.
- roidubouloi
March 3, 2010 at 10:33pm
roid, you are conveniently forgetting a few things, one Specter was a Republican when it all started out and there was really no way to know to what extent he would support the Democrats, two, Lieberman (enough said about him). Now minus those two the Democrats would have had to break up the bill, pass parts by reconciliation, and hope they could muster the 60 for those parts that didn't have it. And since hospitals already treat the uninsured what is to prevent everyone from not forgoing insurance now? We are all assured access to hospitals now. The reason people don't is because the vast majority of people don't think like that, they want to pay their way. Anyway, most coverage comes with work as a benefit. I have no problem mandating employers provide insurance, I have problems mandating unemployed people, or new college graduates being forced to buy it. We have employer based insurance in America (which i agree is really dumb), make that universal instead (or abolish it entirely, but none of this half free rider shit)
- blackton
March 4, 2010 at 10:31am
"How to frame government initiatives in a way that acknowledges but also overcomes American anti-statism has been, and remains, a major political challenge for Democrats.... if Obama has truly learned his lesson and begins to draw a sharp distinction between the Democrats’ approach and the Republican approach, and if he begins to propose initiatives that highlight this distinction" The issue is not just drawing a distinction between the Democratic and Republican approaches, the Republicans are just as eager to do that as well. It is drawing the distinction in a way that puts the Democratic approach more in line with the current of American values than the Republican one. One American value is anti-statism, a value which is more easily reconciled with the Republican approach. However, another American value is the notion that an accident of birth should be cause for neither favor nor disfavor. Accordingly, Obama should say something along these lines to advance his approach: "One of the facts of health today is that some people are born to be low risks for health events. Others are born to be high risks. In a free market, insurers would reward those who through an accident of birth are low risks with lower premiums and punish those who through an accident of birth are high risks with higher premiums. I find this unacceptable. My Republican colleagues would say that as a minimum, we should accept reward those who are low risks and have government policy mitigate the punishment on those who are high risks. However, their actual policies to mitigate this punishment fall far short of what I find acceptable."
- sighthnd
March 4, 2010 at 10:36am
[Removed by Administrator]
- candide
March 4, 2010 at 10:56am
roid: "The only time a Republican will break party discipline is ..." The reason for Republican party discipline is plurality voting, that is when voters go to the voting booth, they indicate only their top choice and the candidate with the most top choices wins. Because of this voting system, we can only sustain two parties and each party can have one and only one party on the ballot in the general election. Our means of achieving this is the primaries. It is at this stage that the parties can say to their office holder, "if you don't do as we say, we'll run a primary challenger against you." This is what happened several times over the past summer: a Republican would work with the Democrats to find a compromise, hear grumblings about a primary challenge and then discover some reason that he/she can't go ahead with the compromise after all. It could be summarized as the following, "I'd love to help you reach a compromise, but I'd rather be on the ballot next November." In contrast, pairwise-ranked voting would have each candidate run head-to-head against all other candidates on the ballot, achieved by having voters rank the candidates with a higher-ranked candidate winning that voter's vote against a lower-ranked candidate. Under such a system, a candidate who loses in the primary could run in the general election without putting the primary winner at a disadvantage against the other party's nominee and likewise would not be disadvantaged against the other party's nominee by the presence of primary winner. The he/she would be free to run in the general election despite losing the primary. Under such a system, a Republican officeholder could give the tea-partiers the finger, ie. bargain in good faith with the Democrats, with impunity, because the only sanction, a primary loss, that the tea-partiers could exact would be meaningless.
- sighthnd
March 4, 2010 at 10:56am
Good thread with some interesting back and forth especially on on the applicability of Schmitt's extrapolation of Obama's theory of change as applied to Obama. I tend to hold with the view that Obama was naive and at the beginning point of the lpresidential learning curve in his first year and that now he's really growing into the presidency rather than seeing the past year as a coherent example of the Schmitt change idea. But what's this: ...his negritude is not particularly appealing...? I'm not sure what it means, but it sounds terrible.
- basman
March 4, 2010 at 11:23am
blackton, No question that the Senate Dems needed one or two additional votes at the outset, and I have no problem with the idea that they needed to do what was necessary to pick of those two. But that is not the same thin as negotiating with the Republicans, which is what they did, ad infinitum, even after they had the votes they needed. Why? Because Obama believed his own bullshit about bipartisanship, a pipedream in the current political environment. By all means, babble about bipartisanship and blah, blah, blah. But don't start believing your own rhetoric is reality. We have manadatory social security, I don't see any reason why contribution to healthcare should not likewise be mandatory. If people thought they would be adequately treated by just going to the emergency room, then no one would be insurance. But of course, no one believes, with good reason, that they would receive anything but the barest minimum of care that way and then be booted out, which is exactly what happens if you don't have health insurance. There is simply no way to achieve universal access without universal participation. If the cost is via the tax system, the unemployed would not be paying in during their unemployment, but they would still be covered. If we can just get this done, I am sure that the mandate will ultimately disappear in favor of a tax-based system that allocates the cost progressively and assures everyone the same coverage. This is a flawed bill, but it gets us onto the path toward a sane system. Once on the path, we will arrive. If we cannot cross the threshold, it may be another generation during which we will suffer relative economic decline.
- roidubouloi
March 4, 2010 at 11:27am
sighthnd, I would not argue for a moment that the nature of our electoral system does not lie at the root of our political rigidity and partisan warfare. But the chances of the electoral system being changed in any major way in the foreseeable future are nil. If we could even put an end to gerrymandering and fix our campaign finance system it would be two long steps in the right direction. My argument is the flipside of yours: The partisanship is built in and is not going away. Any management of the legislative process must assume the extreme partisanship and be prepared to deal with it effectively. Imagining that making nice will overcome these divisions is hopelessly naïve. That is the lesson that I hope Obama has learned. He tried the nice guy approach and the Republicans shit all over him. Next time, the steel fist in the velvet glove. candide, "his negritude?" What sort of sick nonsense is this? You didn't really vote for Obama. You are a Palin-ite racist who is just looking to stir up trouble by pretending to be a disappointed Obama supporter.
- roidubouloi
March 4, 2010 at 11:34am
roid, While I would agree the ending gerrymandering and fixing campaign finance would be positives, I do not think they would do anything to address the effect of segmenting the population by ideology in the primaries. Indeed, there is research suggesting that competitive districts exacerbate the effect of ideological segmentation by increasing the motivation for extremist voters to turn out for the primaries. You're right that under the current makeup of Congress, partisanship is extremely unlikely to go away. Also, changes in our electoral system are not going to happen without a groundswell of popular support which currently does not exist. The questions are: how many people draw the connection between plurality voting and political dysfunction? If people were to draw the connection, would they become interested in or demand an alternative? The message should be as such: We have politicians who have expressed a willingness to cross the divide but who backed down in the face of a threatened primary challenge. If we get rid of plurality voting, a primary challenge would be an empty threat.
- sighthnd
March 4, 2010 at 12:53pm
candide = concern troll.
- basman
March 4, 2010 at 1:41pm
sighthnd, I am not disagreeing with your suggestions. But changing the system would require interests that now have locked in power to surrender that power. Not happening any time soon. Therefore, Obama and the Democrats must learn to be adroit in working the system we have.
- roidubouloi
March 4, 2010 at 3:33pm